Killer WDFN Notes:
Dogs and cats, living together... mass hysteria
So what is going down with the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement? Tom Kowalski breaks it down, point-by-point, with Sean Baligian on Sports Radio 1130 Detroit. The players could lose money hand-over-fist if a deal isn't reached by 10 p.m., and the Lions are one of the few teams that will actually benefit since they are way under the salary cap. (In his blog, Kowalski says the players are out of their gourds if they don't come to an agreement.)
"It's a bad day for football fans."
Players don't even understand the magnitude of this deal. Players think money will flow like water in 2007's uncapped year, but there are number of poison pills that will hurt them in this deal. The Lions will offer four restricted free agents the minimum deals, whereas in recent years they would've gotten a quality offer. The Lions know there's no money in the league, that not only will no one go after unrestricted free agents -- no one is going to touch RFAs. "The money's just getting squeezed now, and I don't think the players understand that."
"I'm telling you, it's going to be a lot like the NHL where after they realize how close they were to making a lot of money, and now they're getting way less, they're going to be really upset," Killer says.
Baligian says in the NHL everyone knew the owners had to do something, they had no money. In the NFL there's money pouring in. Tom says the owners are not just going to give it away. In the past the players got 65 percent of "Designated Gross Revenues," that doesn't include some stadium income like suites and naming rights. Players now want "Total Football Revenue." They want 60 percent of that, and the NFL wants them to get 56.2 percent of that. What players don't understand is that owners like Ford put $300 million of his own money into the stadium. He makes the investment, and they had nothing to do with it. Players didn't put anything into it, but they want something out of it.
The difference between 56 and 60 is a LOT of money. If they players stay firm on wanting 60 percent, Tom believes that in 2008 there'll be a work stoppage. "There's no way the NFL's going to continue without a salary cap." There would be guys like Dan Snyder who will spend $250 million on a roster and destroy the league. The NFL's popularity is now built upon parity. There'll be a work stoppage because of this fight. If they don't get the deal done tonight, we're headed down uncharted waters and it'll be a mess.
Baligian asks if parity is such a bad thing? Kowalski says it's not just parity, it's financial balance where everyone can make money. The NFL players are not paid on the same level as NBA and MLB guys, but you'll never have guaranteed contracts in the NFL. Not in a sport where you lose so many players to injury. "Everybody will go bankrupt if they do that." What you want is free agency, and it's worked by-and-large.
When they go into 2007 uncapped, many think players will be making all this money. The only players making the money are the free agents, and there won't really be many of those because of a trigger that changes when a player can become a free agent. Now it's after their fourth year, the "new" rules would be a sixth year. Guys like Roy Williams will have to wait two more years. Not only that, but teams get two franchise or transition tags they can use to limit movement, as opposed to only one now. And many teams now choose not to use a tag because they can't fit the new salary under the cap. With no cap, why would anyone not use those tags? Every team will retain their two best free agents automatically.
Kowalski expands on the new free agency rules. If you have to wait six years to be eligible for free agency, instead of four, there will be a lot of rookies who sit out the year and wait until next year. The only good thing about an uncapped year is that rookies will make all the money. There are no restrictions on them. They have got to make their money when they can because they can't go to free agency for another six years. Why would Vince Young and Matt Leinart take a lousy four year deal, when next year they can take all the money they want?
Sean asks if this means the Raiders, Dolphins, Chiefs, Titans, Redskins, Broncos, Panthers, Falcons, and more teams that will be over the cap in some capacity to just to start slashing and burning their rosters to get under? Tom says yes. But, they extended the deadline from 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Expect teams to wait until the last possible second, hoping that a deal gets done. The NFL doesn't want teams cutting players at 8 p.m. and a deal gets done by 9:30.
The real hard drastic trimming of big stars won't happen until the very last second. They'll try to put it off as long as possible, hoping something will get done.
Tom says the cap would go from $94.5 million now to $105-108 million immediately if they took the deal on the table. Most of those guys would not only not be cut, they could rework their deals for more money and years because of the four-year free agency rules.
After the NHL debacle, you see the art of negotiation is to get all that you can, when you can't squeeze anymore you take what you can and run with it. "I hope the players union is smart enough (to do that)." Tom believes if the owners are presented with 57 or 58 percent they may take it. They have a lot to lose, too. They don't want to see this deal die. The union has to come off that 60 percent number.
Baligian says this whole deal should bode well for teams under the salary cap the Vikings, Cardinals, Browns, and even the Lions. Kowalski says yes, it does. The Lions operated under a budget thinking that the cap would be $92 or $93 million. So the Lions are $12-13 million under right now. If there's no CBA extension, the Lions should be one of the teams that goes after Drew Brees really hard. First, there aren't many teams that can bid on him. Second, because of the restricted competition his asking price should come down.
Tom ponders -- if you could bring in Drew Brees and Brian Griese under the same price as Joey Harrington? Would you do it in this scenario? The Lions may have to make that decision. Also, do you continue to tender Jeff Backus if a Jon Runyan is out there? There will be high profile guys available. Do you make a run at Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks even if they're here for one year? They have some great years left in them, and they already know Marinelli's system. These are not the old rules! The Lions may think this is time to make some moves.
Matt Dery asks if Simeon Rice will come to Detroit because he's in love with Marinelli? Tom plugs the transcript and video of Rice's interview on the NFL Network. He's an interesting guy, and he has some baggage, but
these guys will come for less money anyway. There won't be much money out there available. Even if you can pay it, you dont' have to because there isn't much competition for these guys. "These salaries are going to come way down, and I think the players better to be braced for it."
Sean says he expects Tom to report tomorrow the Lions sign Randy Moss, Sam Madison, Priest Holmes, Steve McNair, and Clinton Portis. Tom says don't forget Drew Brees, Will Shields, Derrick Brooks, Simeon Rice, and Adam Viniteri.
March 2, MLive.com: Because the Lions have operating room under the cap, they're expected to make a run at a couple of high-profile free agents. And San Diego Chargers quarterback Drew Brees could be among them.
The Lions are in a unique position to go after a player like Brees because
some of the teams they'd be bidding against aren't in position to compete. The Miami Dolphins, for instance, were $21 million over the cap on Wednesday night and were scrambling to get under the cap.
The report that the Lions are fine is welcome news to Lions fans, but there are more questions that loom. Killer hit the forum to answer your questions. Here's this morning's Q&A with Kowalski.
electriclion: Do you think we are headed for a similar situation the NHL had, in that when all is said and done the players are going to be angery at their leadership for not taking one of the deals that was already on the table?
TomKowalski: I think we're headed in that ... direction ... but i'm still hoping they come to their senses ... upshaw standing firm at 60 is stupid ... if they're only going to give 57 or 58, you take what you can ... once the union does that, i believe the owners will get together and settle their issues ... that's my hope ...
kevinjones1: Cap violations explained So...what happens if a team goes over the Salary Cap? Here's the answer, from Al Lackner of the site "Ask the Commish."
Answer: The short answer is simply that
NO team CAN go over the Salary Cap. Note that every contract must go through the NFL League Office before the deal can be made official. Presumably, one of the things the league must do at this time is determine whether or not the contract would violate the NFL's Salary Cap. If the deal does violate the cap, then the NFL will reject it.
There have been instances in which a team has managed to sneak a cap evading contract by the league. Upon further review, the violations were caught by the league and the respective teams were penalized. Penalties include fines and/or forfeiture of draft picks. In recent history both the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers have been penalized draft picks, while the 49ers' front office personnel (Carmen Policy and Dwight Clark) were also fined.
TomKowalski: More specifically ...
in the event that a team is over the cap on march 3 (they didn't have to be under before then), the penalties are severe ... first, any team over the cap cannot sign ANY player or participate in the draft ... if the team lingers in staying over the cap and then finally gets under it, they could have ALL of their draft picks taken away ... and, on top of that, there are major-league fines that can be levied ...
Bayern: Is there any talk that the Lions will take the franchise tag off of Backus if more top flight offensive linemen become available?
TomKowalski: Not yet, but ... i will refer you to a recent quote by matt millen, who wasn't talking about any player in particular --
"we will do whatever it takes to make this team better.'' ... if there's a slew of high quality players coming available, and the price is right, all bets are off ... that's why the lions suddenly find themselves in the drew brees chase ...
Pudgethefish: TOM: You said teams are likely to move slowly because of all this CBA stuff. Does that mean teams won't even invite free agents in to visit? It seems to me that regardless of the monetary issues, showing real interest in a player early on is still a good way to start negotiations. Am I way off on this train of thought or will there be no activity at all???
TomKowalski: No, you're right ... i suspect there will still be a lot of visits, but i don't see much going on beyond that ...
rickguy45: Tom: safe to assume... that Harrington will not be restructuring his contract if the CBA isn't extended, or a new one signed?
TomKowalski: Here's the thing ...
it's not harrington that doesn't want to renegotiate, it's the lions ... they've been pretty good about not pushing money into future years when they don't have to ... and the current cba situation really doesn't affect harrington because he only has two years left ...
Millennoclue:
Tom-How will this affect the draft? If a CBA is not reached, will this have any effect on the draft? Underclassmen wait untill next year?
TomKowalski:
There could be a lot of players who sit out ... so, if the cba doesn't get extended today, don't get too hyped about hawk, huff or anybody else ...
Zoboa: Tom: Sal Cap room Is the 10-12 million in salary cap room over and above what it will take to tender the RFAs and the money that will go toward the rookie pool? Or will the approx $3 million for RFAs and $4 million for Rookie pool still have to come off that?
TomKowalski: My guess ... is that the cap will be down to about $10 million after the lions tender their restricted free agents today ...
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