Prospects in Iraq

[Uncle Mxy]

(continuing on the Iraq riff started in that other thread)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20...latchy/2789226

Despite drop in violence, Pentagon finds little long-term progress in Iraq

WASHINGTON — Despite significant security gains in much of Iraq , nothing has changed within Iraq's political leadership to guarantee sustainable peace, a Pentagon report released Tuesday found.

The congressionally mandated quarterly report suggests that the drop in violence won't hold unless Iraq's central government passes key legislation, improves the way it manages its security forces and finds a way to reconcile the country's competing sects. It said none of those steps has been taken.

"Although security gains, local accommodation and progress against the flow of foreign fighters and lethal aid into Iraq have had a substantial effect, more needs to be done to foster national, 'top-down' reconciliation to sustain the gains," the report said.

The Pentagon report is the latest assessment circulating in Washington as officials ponder whether the strategy of increasing U.S. troop strength this year by 30,000 can be called a victory or whether the drop in violence is a lull that will break once the United States returns to last year's troop levels.

Another report this week, by retired Lt. Gen. Barry McCaffrey , said that mid-ranking U.S. military officers have become "the de-facto low-level government of the Iraq state."

"The Iraqis tend to defer to U.S. company and battalion commanders based on their respect for their counterparts' energy, integrity and the assurance of some level of security," McCaffrey wrote after a three-week visit to Iraq .

The Pentagon report documents the steep decline in violence. It said that 600 civilians were killed in November, compared with 3,000 in December 2006 . The report also said that al Qaida in Iraq is now on the defensive, weakened by a Sunni Muslim populace that no longer backs it.

But the report also said that the Iraqi government has failed to improve basic services such as water and electricity and hasn't passed legislation outlining how it would distribute oil revenues or hold provincial elections. Most sessions, the parliament struggles to reach a quorum.

Corruption remains a major problem throughout the government. The report cited both the Ministry of Interior , which runs the police force, and the oil industry, Iraq's largest generator of revenue. "Corruption and sectarian behavior continue to be evident in the MoI," the report said. "Corruption at all levels of the oil industry remains a significant problem."

The report also said that despite four years of intense U.S. effort, the Iraqi security forces remain unprepared to operate independently. It said that the ministries of interior and defense are plagued by "deficiencies in logistics, combat support functions and . . . by shortages of officers at all operational and tactical levels."

The report also raises questions about the future of so-called concerned local citizens organizations, which U.S. military leaders have credited with helping to quiet many of Iraq's contentious areas. The U.S. pays the organizations' estimated 70,000 members to patrol Iraq's streets, giving them jobs and, U.S. officials believe, less incentive to join the insurgency.

The report said the groups were "crucial to the counterinsurgency effort." But it also warned that they could evolve into a militia that's opposed to Iraq's central government, a fear shared by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki . The vast majority of the concerned local citizens are Sunni Muslims. The government is dominated by Shiites.

"The slow pace of integrating CLC members in (government) institutions, lack of alternative employment and fears by the Maliki government that these forces may return to violence or form new militias are of concern," the report said.

The report also included polling data that indicate that Iraqis are skeptical about how widespread the drop in violence is. Sixty-one percent of Iraqis nationwide said that their neighborhoods were calm. But only 19 percent said that violence had declined elsewhere in Iraq.

[Fool]

This is certainly "news".......

[Comrade]

The current generation of Iraqis are useless.

[Tahoe]

I have posted articles that have a more positive spin.

The douche bag that wrote this article prolly hasn't even been to Iraq. The douche bags of some of the articles I've posted and read prolly haven't been to Iraq but have a more positive spin.

The truth is peeps are coming back to bagdad and the violence is way less than before. US military deaths are less than in some peace time years. What perplexes me is why detractors of the war (the narrative of defeat folks) can't say so.

They can't say "Hey, we shouldn't have been there in the first place, but peace is good for all over there. Good for the Iraqi families" Hopefully it can all get stabilized.

Instead its, "we're just paying peeps" and its not going to last and on and on.

Emotionally and politicall invested in the narrative of defeat.

[Uncle Mxy]

Ha! Yes, the writer has indeed been to Iraq:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/158

And that narrative is largely quoting:

1) the Pentagon's report to Congress:

http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs...d-20071214.pdf

where the only positive uses of the phrase "long-term" applies to "long-term fixes for the oil pipeline" and a peace pipe smoked that was named "Principles for a Long-Term Relations of Cooperation and Friendship Between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America". Every other use was grim.

and

2) Retired General Barry McCaffrey's report to the military:

http://www.smallwarsjournal.com/docu...aardec2007.pdf

which ends with: "We are clearly no longer on a downward spiral. However, the ultimate outcome is still quite seriously in doubt."

Read the reports yourself. What do you think they say as far as long-term prospects?

[Tahoe]

Have I said "Mission Accomplished" I said things are getting better.

I wasn't just talking about this article's writer, I was making a general comment about these weenies writing articles and inserting their speculation in. Some insert speculation of doom and gloom and others say things are getting way better. I could give a shit what some writer in LA working for the LA times, sitting in LA thinks about Iraq. Opinions are like assholes, everyones got one and they all stink.

I'll go with my articles and I'm thinking you'll go with yours. Patreus gave a pretty realistic picture in Iraq. He said some good things and some bad. The one that stuck out with me is the violence has lessened considerably, but we need a political solution too. The military can't win this thing alone.

I've posted that, I and believe that.

[geerussell]

The truth is peeps are coming back to bagdad and the violence is way less than before. US military deaths are less than in some peace time years. What perplexes me is why detractors of the war (the narrative of defeat folks) can't say so.

They can't say "Hey, we shouldn't have been there in the first place, but peace is good for all over there. Good for the Iraqi families" Hopefully it can all get stabilized.

Define defeat. Admitting that we can't salvage that broken country isn't defeat it's reality.

The war's supporters are like the Matt Millen of politics. So emotionally and invested in the mistakes that they just prolong the fiasco. The sooner we stop pouring lives and money down that pit, the better.

[Tahoe]

Luckily liberals are coming around to nuclear energy instead of you liberal hippies out there smoking the pot and protesting it.

Now that you've started changing your tune on that, we might be able to start weaning ourselves from oil. joking meter...mostly kind of sort of

[geerussell]

Luckily liberals are coming around to nuclear energy instead of you liberal hippies out there smoking the pot and protesting it.

Now that you've started changing your tune on that, we might be able to start weaning ourselves from oil. joking meter...mostly kind of sort of

I guess that after getting run out of wmd valley and routed from democracy hill, the war supporters' last stand is on war for oil ridge. Good luck with that. Seriously.

There have been no gains in that regard either. The US had plenty enough presence in the region before invading iraq to answer any regional oil shenanigans. Not to mention a lot more credibility, money and potential allies.

All we accomplished was to jack up the price of oil, filling the coffers in places like russia, venezuela and assorted other exporters of dubious character. Not to mention the damage done to our own economy by high energy prices and as a bonus... we shriveled up the supply coming out of iraq to a trickle. Nice job. Go US.

[Tahoe]

Oil prices went up mainly cuz of China and India having huge growth.