Detroit Pistons
2006-07 Recap
Tell me if this starts sounding familiar: After breezing through the Eastern Conference regular season, winning 27 road games, earning the top overall seed and being heavily favored to make the Finals, Detroit's offense imploded around the first of May. The Pistons stumbled to lose the conference finals in six games as their low-mistake offense mysteriously became bogged down in turnovers, and observers were left to question coach Flip Saunders' repeated misfortunes in the postseason.
Anyone getting a sense of déjÃfudge vu yet?
I suppose the remarkable similarity between Detroit's past two seasons shouldn't surprise us, as they've been the most consistent team of the past half-decade in nearly every respect. This time around they shuffled the deck a little, with the departure of Ben Wallace creating a shifting of seats in the frontcourt, but the end result looked remarkably similar.
Slowest Pace: 2006-07
TEAM W-L PACE FACTOR
Detroit 53-29 89.6
Portland 32-50 91.0
Dallas 67-15 91.9
San Antonio 58-24 92.0
Miami 44-38 92.1
League average 41-41 94.3
Once again, Detroit was the league's biggest plodder, and this time by a wide margin. The Pistons not only had the league's slowest pace, but did so by more than a full possession per game. Most of this was a result of their deliberate offensive approach, which involved taking care of the ball, milking the shot clock and shooting jump shots, but Detroit also excelled in transition defense.
The patient offense and the fairly rare forays to the rim contributed to the most impressive aspect of the Pistons' season, a remarkably low turnover rate. Detroit had miscues on only 13.5 percent of its possessions, easily the NBA's best mark; relative to the league average this fact alone saved them nearly three points a game.
That approach also had some negatives, however. The Pistons were below the league average in free-throw attempts, even though guard Chauncey Billlups was a one-man foul magnet. Oddly enough, they were below average in 3-point attempts too; usually teams that are low in high are high in the other. Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince were big reasons why: They attempted very few 3s for wing players who shoot reasonably well, usually preferring to step in and fire from 17.
Fewest Possessions Ending in TOs: 2006-07
TEAM PCT. of POSS. W/TO
Detroit 13.5
Washington 14.1
Toronto 14.2
Phoenix 14.7
Sacramento 14.9
League average 16.4
But between the lack of turnovers and a solid offensive rebound rate (28.3 percent, good for 11th in the league), the Pistons accomplished a rare feat. They were well above the league norm in offensive efficiency, finishing sixth overall, even though their true shooting percentage was below the league average. In other words, the Pistons had a good offense even though they weren't good shooters, because they gained so many more shots than their opponents by avoiding turnovers and grabbing rebounds.
Detroit ranked sixth in defensive efficiency too, as Wallace's departure led to a rather unexpected outcome: The Pistons leading the league in blocked shots. Detroit sent back 7.45 percent of opponent deliveries, and it was a true team effort. Rasheed Wallace was the only Detroit player to send back more than one a game, but Jason Maxiell, Nazr Mohammed and Dale Davis all rejected better than two shots per 40 minutes off the bench.
The Pistons retained most of their other tendencies, too. They cut off the 3-point line, ranking fourth in opponent 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, and they were a low-gamble team that had the league's fourth-lowest rate of steals.
Where losing Wallace hurt wasn't in blocks or shooting percentage, but in two other areas -- fouls and rebounds. Wallace was amazing in part for his ability to defend so well without ever fouling; using Mohammed and Chris Webber in his place produced considerably more hacking. Detroit still beat the league average in opponent free-throw attempts per field goal attempt, but a year earlier they were phenomenal.
The damage might have been worse on the glass. Detroit grabbed only 70.9 percent of opponent misses, the sixth-worst rate in the league, as nobody was capable of picking up the slack for Wallace's absence.
One other Pistons trend continued post-Wallace: their freakish run of amazingly good health. While Detroit wasn't as insanely injury-proof as it was a year earlier, every key Piston played at least 70 games, and Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Carlos Delfino went the full 82.
However, they were much better able to handle any injury (or foul problems) that came up. The emergence of Maxiell and the midseason pickup of Webber made the frontcourt much deeper, something that's likely to become more important as their five-man nucleus gets up in years.
Offseason Moves
Joe Dumars has done a remarkable job in Detroit, so why would this summer be any different? After being stung by Wallace's departure a year ago, he made sure Detroit kept its star in Billups, while making moves to start putting the next generation of Pistons in place.
• Re-signed Chauncey Billups
Dumars wasn't getting burned again, and he read the market correctly. With few teams having cap space and those that did being in rebuilding mode, Detroit had a huge advantage in the bidding and leveraged it to keep Billups with a very reasonable five-year, $60 million deal. The best part of the deal is that the last year isn't guaranteed, which will give Dumars a huge trading chip in the summer of 2011 if Billups' play begins to decline.
Additionally, despite Billups' age (31) the risk here isn't too large. Big point guards who can shoot well tend to age very well, so it's reasonable to expect Billups to remain competent until he's 34, at which point the deal is no longer guaranteed.
• Re-signed Amir Johnson, let Dale Davis go
Two years from now this deal might seem like a screaming bargain. Detroit signed Johnson for $11 million over three years, paying him based mostly on potential but also on the crazy D-League numbers he put up last season. The 6-11 forward will be a major part of the frontcourt rotation this year, and athletically a massive upgrade on Davis and Chris Webber.
The Pistons let Webber go as well, but as training camp begins, his return remains a strong possibility.
• Extended Antonio McDyess
This move was a much bigger risk than the Billups deal, but McDyess played so ridiculously well in the second half of last season that I'm not sure Dumars had a choice.
The alternative was letting McDyess opt out of his deal and play the open market, and that might have proven much more costly than the two-year, $14 million extension Detroit gave him. While they have to be skittish about paying him until he's 35, especially given his history of knee problems, he's been healthy and productive since coming to Detroit, and plenty of lesser big men are making more dough than this.
• Drafted Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Sammy Mejia
The draft choice from the Darko Milicic trade yielded Stuckey, who couldn't possibly be a better fit. Detroit has needed a combo guard who could relieve Billups and Richard Hamilton ever since Mike James left; now they have one. The stats and scouts both agree that he's a keeper. I'm not nearly as impressed with Afflalo, a grinder with a decent jumper who will struggle to create shots. Mejia, a second-rounder, might not make the team.
• Traded Carlos Delfino for two 2nd-round picks; signed Jarvis Hayes
Dumars has a policy of trading anyone who wants out, and after three years Delfino was ready to go. No big loss, especially if Hayes can stay healthy. He'll try to be the next medical miracle for Detroit, as he couldn't stay in the lineup for more than a week at a time in Washington but I'm sure will crank out 82-game seasons now that he's got the magical elixir of a Pistons jersey protecting him.
• Signed Cheick Samb
This was a bit of a surprise. A second-round pick by Detroit two years ago, he's played in Europe ever since. He's 7-1, 195 pounds, which seems impossible but apparently isn't; needless to say, he can't outmuscle a paper clip and looks to be at least a year away from contributing.
Biggest Strength/Weakness
Biggest Strength: Frontcourt Depth
After years of ragging on the Pistons' bench, I now must report that they have as much in the tank as anyone in basketball, especially in the frontcourt. The starting combo of Wallace and McDyess is solid, but the Pistons' real strength is off the bench. Jason Maxiell is an active, tough forward who makes plays without needing the ball, while Nazr Mohammed, though strangely unloved by his employers, remains a solid performer.
But the real prize here is Johnson, a 21-year-old who turned pro out of high school and barely has been seen since. The Pistons swear he's a killer and his numbers from the D-League are spectacular; at worst, he should be a stud shot-blocker right out of the chute.
So stacked was Detroit that letting Dale Davis and perhaps Chris Webber leave wasn't even a difficult decision. If Cheick Samb acclimates quickly and discovers the joys of steak, he could add to the mix, too.
Biggest Weakness: That Attitude
Has any team become more insufferable than this one? The underdog mentality that the Pistons rode to the 2005 championship has been perverted into a weird sense of entitlement and arrogance, crystallized by their utter refusal to give Cleveland any credit during the conference finals last year.
Similarly, their us-against-the-world esprit de corps has been modified to place Flip Saunders and every active referee in the "world" category, resulting in the meltdowns that proved so costly against Cleveland.
Rasheed Wallace is the leading protagonist, of course. His bickering with Saunders helped create the defensive confusion that allowed LeBron James to thrash Detroit's defense at the end of Game 5, while his inexcusable unraveling in the fourth quarter of Game 6 provided the coda to Detroit's season.
But the more disturbing part is the extent to which the other Pistons have taken on Wallace's attitude. Rather than a bunch of good guys helping keep their excitable teammate under control, as we saw in 2004, today it's more the case of Wallace's histrionics setting the example for the others.
For instance, the Pistons led the league in technical fouls by a wide margin last season. And if you think that's just because of Wallace, think again: Even if you take out Wallace's league-leading total they still ranked third.
In other words, the whole team *****es at the refs now, not just 'Sheed. Hamilton is so wound up in Detroit's victimhood that he finished right behind Wallace with 15 T's last season, while McDyess and Billups have become nearly as bad. Only Tayshaun Prince has remained immune thus far, but I'm sure 'Sheed is figuring out how to get through to him.
Outlook
In the wake of the playoff defeat it's easy to forget that Detroit won 53 games, and had the scoring margin of a 55-win team. Let's not write their epitaph quite yet. While Detroit's struggles in May have been baffling, there are few teams I'd rather have between November and April.
The better news is that even if the Pistons' ridiculously good fortune on the injury front ends, they are now in position to handle it. Stuckey looks like the real deal and can play two positions, Johnson and Maxiell look like the next generation in the frontcourt, and multiple role players (Hayes, Mohammed, Flip Murray) are waiting in the wings.
In fact, if there's a concern about this team, it might be with the starting five. McDyess is 33 and is extremely likely to see last year's stellar numbers drop a bit; Wallace is the same age and might wreak havoc off the court even if he does OK on it. On the perimeter, it's a similar story with Billups (30) and Hamilton (29); only Prince (27) has any reasonable expectation of being better this year than last.
The other part of the battle will be mental. Despite the incredibly good fit between Detroit's different pieces, one wonders if this nucleus could use a shake-up to rattle some of the complacency and arrogance out of them. Obviously this is an area where Dumars should tread carefully, but if early-season defeats are greeted with the same whining and excuses he might be encouraged to act.
In the big picture, I like what the Pistons have done and where they're at, and they have a decent shot at extending their streak of 50-win seasons to seven. The only problem is that their competition in the Central Division is starting to leave them behind. This isn't the 50-wins-books-an-automatic-conference-finals-trip East of old, and unless Detroit's youngsters can pick up the slack extremely quickly the Pistons' five-year streak of playing into June is likely to come to an end.
Prediction: 48-34, 3rd in Central, 5th in Eastern Conference
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Originally Posted by WTFchris
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