NBA Championship betting odds

[Glenn]

From bodog.com as of this morning:

Detroit Pistons 1/1

Dallas Mavericks 3/1

San Antonio Spurs 13/4 (3.25/1)

Miami Heat 5/1

Phoenix Suns 10/1

Cleveland Cavaliers 15/1

Los Angeles Clippers 18/1


Anybody know what the Pistons odds were before Game 6 vs. Cleveland? It would be interesting to see how it has changed.

[realistic]

If I bet, I'm putting money on the Spurs. I don't think the Pistons, who lost to a similar SA team last year, are three times more likely than the Spurs are to win the title. Pot odds, friends.

[gusman]

yeah i was checking odds at the place where I bet www.thegreek.com and before game 6 they were still favored to win the whole thing. I was a bit suprised

[realistic]

For each team to win the championship, here are the odds at www.sportsinteraction.com:
Pistons $1.90
Spurs $3.75
Mavs $6.00
Heat $6.00
Suns $15
Clippers $21
Cavs $29

I figure only 3 teams--Pistons, Mavs, Spurs--can win the trophy. And I am willing to pay $20 for the Pistons to win the championship. That's how I rationalized betting $10 on the Mavs to win it, and then also separately betting $10 for the Spurs to win it.

That's $20 total investment, and the average payback is $48.75 ((37.50 Spurs+60.00 Mavs)/2), so the adjusted return is 48.75/20, or 2.43 times my investment. That is a good investment as long as there is at least a 41% chance (100/2.43) of either the Mavs or the Spurs winning it. Given that we could lose today, and that there's no assurance we'll beat the Heat, I say there is welll over a 41% chance of my bets panning out.

That said, betting on the Pistons to get the rings is a good bet as long as there is a 53% chance of them winning it. (100/1.9). Unfortunately, friends, I don't put our odds that high. We'd have to survive today against a team that has our number; overcome Shaq, Wade, and the refs; and then have to deal w/ either the Mavs, who are excellent, or the Spurs, who beat us last year.

I'll put it this way: I think there's far more than a 41% chance that the Spurs or the Mavs will win it--I'd put it closer to 55%. But I think that a 53% chance for the Pistons is about right, if not lower given our obstacles.

I hope you guys don't hate me.

[UxKa]

i didnt think odds could be 1/1. so if i put $100 on the pistons, and they won, i would just get my $100 back? then id have to pay taxes on it? so id end up losing money if i bet on deeetroit and they won. lol, stupid. ive never bet so maybe im missing something but it sounds stupid.

altho realistic, i like what you did.. i always wondered if you could bet across the board and make it mathmatically possible to win money regardless (considering one of the three teams wins).

[realistic]

i didnt think odds could be 1/1. so if i put $100 on the pistons, and they won, i would just get my $100 back? then id have to pay taxes on it? so id end up losing money if i bet on deeetroit and they won. lol, stupid. ive never bet so maybe im missing something but it sounds stupid.

altho realistic, i like what you did.. i always wondered if you could bet across the board and make it mathmatically possible to win money regardless (considering one of the three teams wins).

Thanks, Ux.

I even considered putting $10 more dollars down on the Heat to win it. That, along w/ my other above bets, would mean that I'd need only a 19% chance of one of those teams winning it to make a sound gamble. ((60+60+37.50)/3) = 5.23 and 100/5.23=19. But I couldn't convince myself that the Heat could beat the Mavs or the Spurs, so I didn't pull the trigger on the extra bet.

And, actually, I suspect my math is off because it assumes that each team has an equal chance of winning it, but I think the math should be more like this: [60(.1) Heat] + [60 (.25) Mavs] + [37.5 (.30) Spurs]...

I don't know. I'm confused. I got a C in Calc. Twice. Could someone good at math tell me how I should be doing the numbers? This really interests me and I'd like to make a hobby of this.

I bet Chris is good at this stuff. Anyone?

P.S. Ux, the odds for Pistons are 1.90, so if you bet $100, you'd win $190.

[UxKa]

Glenns original post was 1/1 so i was just using that site as an example, not your specific example. but i never took calc so i cant help you there. on another note, if you took the heat too i would have to hate you lol. good luck with that though. if it pans out ill have to start looking into some investments for next season and remembering my algebra, i did tutor in that in HS.

[realistic]

Glenns original post was 1/1 so i was just using that site as an example, not your specific example. but i never took calc so i cant help you there. on another note, if you took the heat too i would have to hate you lol. good luck with that though. if it pans out ill have to start looking into some investments for next season and remembering my algebra, i did tutor in that in HS.

My bad. I normally just ignore Glenn's posts...

But this stuff does interest me. A normal company, depending on the industry, is thrilled to make 10% on investment each year. If I could make that on my bets with no effort, that would be great. Of course a normal business is also able to liquidate assets, so it doesn't lose ALL the investment when things go bad. Lose a bet and you lose all the investment. So I suppose this is closer to junk bonds... But I'm excited nonetheless.

[Glenn]

1/1 means you would win $1 for every $1 you bet

[UxKa]

1/1 means you would win $1 for every $1 you bet

im not one to bet, so like i said, i could be missing something. i would think that 1/1 means you dont make money. $100 bet means you get $100 back but its the $100 you bet. thats what im assuming. 2/1 would mean you make a dollar for each dollar you bet. $100 bet gets a $200 return with $100 being what you bet, ultimately being a $100 profit.

if im wrong then teach me and i shall learn. if 1/1 means you double your money, then does that mean 2/1 you triple, 3/1 you quadruple and so on? that just doesnt make sense to me. im really really good at math but apparantly im missing something on betting odds.