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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
DeShaun Foster's broken leg was a devastating blow for Carolina last week. How the Panthers overcome it will determine whether they will go to their second Super Bowl in three years.
The dropoff from Stephen Davis and Foster to Nick Goings is significant. Goings is a tough, solid inside runner. If he were an everyday starter, he could be a 1,000-yard runner, as proven last year when he had eight starts and finished with 821 yards. But Foster had the ability to break the long run. Goings doesn't. His longest run this season is 17 yards. His career rushing average is 3.7 yards a carry.
Goings isn't going to beat a team with the big play and the Seahawks know that. The absence of Foster should allow the Seahawks to concentrate on more coverage variations against wide receiver Steve Smith. Everyone is still trying to figure out what the Bears were thinking in their coverages of Smith.
The Bears used a lot of Cover 2 and Cover 3 schemes that often gave Smith free releases from the line of scrimmage or had him in areas in which one cornerback had to contain him for 10-15 yards. That's not wise. Smith is the Panthers' offense. He's the best run-after-the-catch receiver in football, so the key is disrupting him in routes and making sure he is double covered.
The Cowboys used the smartest plan against him. They had one cornerback, mostly Terence Newman, in man coverage, pressing him from the line of scrimmage, and had a safety back to double cover him. Smith caught 103 passes for 1,563 yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season. Why wouldn't you commit half your secondary to stopping someone who's probably going to get 100 yards every week? If he gets 90 yards and no touchdowns, that's a victory for the defense.
The Seahawks can use Marcus Trufant, their best corner, to stay with him, but Dan Henning, the Panthers' offensive coordinator, is smart enough to keep putting Smith in motion to make him a moving target. What's amazing is no one has been able to stop Smith much. The team's next leading wide receivers, Keary Colbert and Ricky Proehl, had 25 catches apiece in the regular season.
Every team knows to try to let Colbert or Proehl beat you, but Jake Delhomme keeps finding ways to get the ball to Smith whenever that opening is there in single coverage.
Both the Panthers and the Seahawks had physical games last week, but Carolina suffered more casualties. Seven players didn't practice Wednesday for the Panthers, compared to only three for the Seahawks. Worse is that Foster is out and defensive end Julius Peppers is going to play with a shoulder injury. That's two of the Panthers' best playmakers. Peppers' effectiveness with the shoulder injury is more of a question than his availability.
Another concern is the ankle injury of defensive tackle Kindal Moorehead. The Panthers need him to play because defensive tackle Brentson Buckner could wear down if he's asked to play too much. Buckner has shown amazing resilience for his age, but he can't be asked to play 60 plays and be effective.
The Seahawks know this game will be tough. The Panthers can send blitzes or get pressure with just a four-man rush. Even more, Seattle has had to change its hand signals for audibles because former cornerback Ken Lucas now lines up for the Panthers.
Audibles are the key to the Seahawks' game. They primarily work out of a three-receiver offense and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is a master of making the right audible read at the right time. His specialty is audibling to the right running play.
There will be pressure on him to make the correct calls and pressure on halfback Shaun Alexander to do well. Alexander has been in three playoff games and has never rushed for more than 45 yards. He had great success against the Panthers during the 2004 season gaining 195 yards against them. But Alexander is going for the free agent gold and the Super Bowl. He needs a big game Sunday.
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Originally Posted by Glenn
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