West: Seeds 6, 7 and 8
By Ryan Schwan
TrueHoop Network
As the regular season enters its final three days, the Western Conference playoff picture is anything but set, with seeds two through eight still in play. Though the race for seeds two through four and home-court advantage in the first round remains compelling, there is a drama developing at the bottom of the pack as three teams fight to stay out of the eighth and final seed and a first-round date with the powerhouse Lakers.
All three teams have exactly two games remaining, but the team at the top, New Orleans, has two tough road games against Houston and San Antonio remaining, while both Dallas and Utah have a somewhat easier pair of games left. Utah also owns tiebreakers against both teams above them, further complicating the picture. The teams in question:
Currently sixth seed: New Orleans Hornets(49-31)
Remaining schedule: At Rockets, at San Antonio
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas having won the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah having lost the season series 3-0
Currently seventh seed: Dallas Mavericks(48-32)
Remaining schedule: Minnesota, at Houston
Loses tiebreaker vs. Hornets having lost the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah by having a worse conference record (currently 32-18 to 27-23 with no way to make up the difference)
Currently eighth seed: Utah Jazz (47-33)
Remaining schedule: Clippers, at Lakers
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas by having a better conference record
Wins tiebreaker vs. New Orleans having won the season series 3-0.
Though the three teams only have two games left, the possible outcomes of those games combine to form 27 different final records for the three teams in question. In an effort to handicap the race, here's a fast and dirty breakdown of how each of those 27 scenarios treat each team:
The Hornets have a clear advantage, owning the tiebreaker over the Mavericks and a two-game lead over the Jazz. Out of those 27 possible combinations, only one ends with the Hornets in the eighth seed, and a mere four end with the Hornets holding the seventh seed. Really, all the Hornets have to do to avoid the Lakers is win one game -- or have the Jazz or Mavericks lose one.
The Mavericks, despite their one-game advantage over Utah, have to deal with the fact that they will lose the tiebreaker with either of their opponents. There are only three possible outcomes where they can take the sixth seed, 15 where they take the seventh, and nine where they fall to eighth. In the end, however, they can still control whether they avoid the dreaded date in Hollywood by simply winning as many games as the Jazz do this week.
The Jazz are in the unenviable position of not controlling their own fate. The only way they can gain ground is to have the Mavericks lose at least once, or the Hornets fail spectacularly. As a result, there are only two scenarios where they can take the sixth seed, eight scenarios where they can take the seventh seed, and 17 scenarios in which they remain an eighth seed.
One of the two best scenarios for the Jazz would be if all three teams ended with the exact same record of 49-33. Should that occur, the Hornets would win the tiebreaker over the Mavericks, the Jazz win the tiebreaker over the Hornets, and the seeding would end up with the Jazz in sixth, Hornets in seventh, and Mavericks in eighth. Based on the schedule, this outcome isn't even that far-fetched as the Hornets battle two tough teams fighting for seeding, the Mavericks could easily split games against the Timberwolves and Houston, and the Jazz may be able to take both games as the Clippers prepare to head home and the Lakers already have their seeding locked and may let the visitors steal one.
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