UM hoops 2009-2010

[Jethro34]

I can already hear the "MSU is still playing, so they're not looking ahead yet" comments.

Fine, whatever.

UM's season came to a close and exceeded most national expectations. So what's next?

Well, they certainly lose 3 players - CJ Lee, David Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd. Some have wondered if anyone will transfer. Kelvin Grady's minutes were anyone's guess and there have been rumors of him considering a transfer. Anthony Wright could parlay his Oklahoma game into a bid for more minutes or a transfer of his own. You never know.

They add 5 players, so where are the minutes going to go? The players are:
Darius Morris - this PG is already being talked about by some as the guy that takes UM the next step. First, he's big for a PG. 6'4" is huge compared to Lee, Merritt, and Grady (Lee is the tallest at 6'0"). He supposedly has good handles, a nice shot, and most importantly the ability to break down a defender and create his own shot. When Harris wasn't doing this the offense was often stagnant, and his ability to do so went downhill as the season went on and defenses keyed on it. The 3 players leaving combined for about 40 minutes combined. How many does Morris take up? 20-25? LLP gets 18 right now, does that stay the same, go up? Novak got 28 per game. That might go down. The shooters might all lose some minutes as they work in Vogrich fits right in with Douglass and Novak. Do they each go about 20 minutes? Of the three, Douglass is the best ball-handler, Vogrich the best shooter (supposedly), and Novak the most gritty. I love Novak's hustle.

But with Manny playing SF, Novak often essentially played PF at 6'5". We basically never saw Sims and Gibson on the floor together. With both gone after the 09-10 season, Beilein certainly needs to work the three new bigs into the mix. And they are big. The shortest is Jordan Morgan at 6'8", but at 245 he's actually bigger than both Sims and Gibson. How a box out guy fits in will be interesting to see. McLimans gives a nice size advantage in a guy with a SF skill set. At 6'10" he will rarely face anyone taller. We'll see if he can handle the Big Ten. After a year of prep school, he theorhetically will have a more mature body and should be better suited than he was after 4 years of HS. Cronin is huge, but what he's capable of, how that hip will heal, and how he fits is anyone's guess. I get the impression there will be games when we only see a combined 10 minutes from those three, and others when we'll see close to 30.

Distributing minutes will be quite a chore for the coaching staff, who will likely alter each game based on matchups. Keeping everyone happy and making the right choices might be a challenge. Potentially, they could be 12 deep, all averaging 8-9 minutes or more per game going into the Big Ten schedule next year.

Depending on how many people bite on the NBA draft, the Big Ten might be even better next year. Penn State should take a step backward, and MSU will have to adjust to life without Suton, Gray, and Walton - but they're deep and have bigs coming in. Meanwhile, the worst team (Indiana) has the best recruiting class, with 6 recruits coming in with players at every position and four 4 stars. It seems the entire league is sophomores and freshmen. Minnesota and Illinois also have top 15 recruiting classes.

It will be hard to tell what the non-conference season has in store before the schedule is released, but it may be even more difficult to go .500 in conference next year.

So could the team improve greatly on the court but take a step back in the standings? Only time will tell, and we might not know very much until 8 months from now.

At least we know this much, this team has moved on. During a 5 year stretch, this team totaled 77 wins (outside of NIT wins). That's less than 16 per year. Those days should be long gone, and hopefully Selection Sunday becomes an annual tradition of looking for where they will play, not if.

[FillyCheezeSteak]

Here is my guess at the breakdown of minutes for next year and this is really only a guess at this point..........

Starters:
PG Grady - 20 minutes
SG Douglas - 25 minutes
SF Harris - 35 minutes
PF Novak - 30 minutes
C Sims - 30 minutes

Reserves:
PG Morris - 15 minutes
PG Perry - 5 minutes
SG Perry - 10 minutes
SG Vogrich - 5 minutes
SF Vogrich - 5 minutes
PF Gibson - 10 minutes
C Cronin - 10 minutes

I think McLimans is a lock to redshirt and I think Jordan Morgan is over 50% to redshirt at this point. Obviously, if Grady transfers the situation becomes a little more fun. The funny thing about LLP is that he played exactly ZERO minutes at point guard this year, but everyone keeps calling him a PG and I think that is probably what he is, but not what Beilien is feeling. I like having the problem of Sims, Gibson, Ant Wright, Croning, McLimans, Morgan and Novak and wouldn't mind seeing guys like Wright, Morgan and Croning simply getting 5-8 minutes a night as all would bring something different to the table.

I would really like to know what Beilien calls Manny and Novak in terms of positions. Everyone simply calls Manny a 3 (small forward) and Novak a 4 (power forward), but I wonder if that is what they are in the actual offense or if they are just 4 actual guards and he doesn't care or if Novak gets treated like a 4 and they want him to have that mentality. If everyone comes back I think you have a lot of drama in terms of playing time and it could get very interesting in a quick way.............and don't count out Eso Akunne next year either.

[Jethro34]

You're right, I completely forgot about Akunne.

Looking at your formula, I think you could be close. I would actually like to see less of Sims and Harris. Before everyone screams at me, let me explain. If you could take 28 minutes of Manny where he is explosive, aggressive, and fresh - or take 35 minutes in which he spends stretches of time playing tentative and without that quick first step - which would you take? There are certainly stretches in games when Manny isn't the best player on the court, but others when he is. If you cut down his minutes to reduce the chances that he's in foul trouble or playing a little winded, and use a fresh and aggressive LLP, Morris, Vogrich, or whoever during those minutes - wouldn't your end result be, in theory, much more productive?

So in that regard, could they drop 5 minutes from the guys getting 30 or more and actually be better for it? Could you get the same productivity from Sims in 25 minutes that you get in 30, because with that extra 5 minutes of down time he's able to play stronger and more explosive when he's on the court?

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

I don't think Grady starts at the Point.

Every time Beilein gives him a chance to play, he commits a stupid turnover and gets taken right out again.

My bet is on Darius Morris being the starting PG come next fall.

[Tahoe]

I don't feel worthy of posting in this thread. But I'm reading.

[Zip Goshboots]

The team has, again, ALOT of unkowns. Even Harris and Sims don't give you anything to bank on. One thing they MUST do with Sims is get him a position, and don't make it in the middle. Douglas and Novak should improve, but they are not guys to build a team around.

To be honest, unless the freshmen coming in make a major impact, this team is on a plateau. They won't be sneaking up on anybody. I think the loss of CJ Lee, unless again Morris steps in and is ret to go, hurts.

Yeah, it's another year in "The System" and all, but the talent is weak and static, while the rest of the conference will get better, especially if the other guys don't lose any players to early draft entry. I think any improvement will come in the form of beating teams they should beat, like an injury depleted Iowa team down the stretch. Being able to split the season series with OSU and Wisconsin. This team lost 8 times when they had the hafltime lead--maybe they hold onto one or two of those. We'd be talking about 22-9 instead of 19-12, and a possible 11-7 Big Ten season. Anything more than that, and Belein deserves a lifetime contract.

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

I think they'll be in the middle of the road in the Big Ten and probably a first or second round exit in the tournament next year.

Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St, and possibly Illinois should all have better teams than Michigan next year.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin & Penn St will all be in the 2nd-tier.

[b-diddy]

well, call me an optimist.

my lone concern is losing lee. hes a marginal talent, but this team really turned a corner when he was insterted in with the starters. losing him is potentially a big blow. but hopefully morris's talent trumps lee's experience. and OG will be an upperclassman, so maybe its a new ballgame for him.

simm's game has skyrocketted under beiliene, and i see no reason why next year he wont take anotherr step forward.

if the team that ended the year played the whole year, we might have won afew more big ten games. split wisky, beat iowa on road. that alone should be worth a couple more wins.

heres the wild card. manny is an nba prospect. there may even be a crazy gm out there who would use a first on him RIGHT NOW. if hes not planning on improving his game this summer, he should go pro, because having the same year 2 years in a row will kill your draft stock. if manny has last year's season next year hes borderline 2nd round or undrafted. im not predicting what he'll do, but he has a whole lot of incentive to come back and kick ass, imo.

i love the beiliene system. i think we got a really tough draw in the second round, and with a little better luck could have made the sweet 16 THIS year. next year the expectation should be second weekend.

[Tahoe]

Supporting Diddy here a lil bit. A couple times I saw Lee directing plays, traffic, the ball when one of the youngsters came in. He always seemed to know what the hell they were supposed to do.

[JickBoy34]

My hope is for a confident Lucas-Perry to run the point. The point in our system isn't like other systems, all you have to do is bring the ball up court and start the crazy motion. I think if Lucas-Perry gets his confidence back, he provide much more than Grady, or a freshman Morris.