2009 NBA Draft

[Uncle Mxy]

The trends interest me more than anything. I suspect that #37 being better than #36 or #38 is statistical noise (along with #44 being really bad compared to #43 or #45). Overall, it's clear than a mid-30s pick is about the same as a low-mid 40s pick

There seems to be a definite, but only mild, breakpoint right around 1st round vs. 2nd round (which over the years has varied). My hunch is that late-20s 1st round picks on the whole are about the same as #31-45, but get more of a chance to play and blossom because they have guaranteed money.

The dropoff between #1 and everyone else isn't a shocker, but the dropoffs between #5 to #6 and #10 to #11 are surprising. It gives some historical perspective on trading up or trading down in the draft in a general sense. It's not worth trading up unless we get top 10.

Note that the absolute rankings for "best drating teams" don't account for where we drafted. When they factor that in, and what the reasonable expectations are, we're middle of the road. The Lakers under Jerry West drafted some great players, that's for sure...

[Zekyl]

#37 could be someone like Redd or Manu who turned into a star after being taken in the 2nd round. That would throw everything off.

[Pharaoh]

Um, yes it's highly likely someone like Redd or Manu was drafted at 37 and it changed the rating in a big way.

That said I still CORRECTLY claim that our scouts are shit.

And Mxy I too was a little surprised to see that there is very, very little difference between players picked at the very top of the second round and say pick #45.

Most fans talk about trading up to get a pick in the early 30's, like they're gonna grab the one guy with Lotto talent that fell. According to 82games those picks from #31 to #36 are no better than #45!

And Mxy, 82games did the study - I didn't change the data. The numbers tell the story. You are probably the smartest dude on here when it comes to numbers and shit, so don't go trying to slip one past me. I used your link - it proved my case.

[Uncle Mxy]

The numbers show us to both be right in a sense. In absolute terms ("pick performance" in the 82games chart), yeah, our drafting sucks. In relative terms, factoring in the position/quality of the picks that we had ("expected performance"), it's been middle of the road. That's why, when you look at the chart at http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm , we show up in the middle, not at the sucky end.

[Glenn]

Barring a trade (or landing in the top 3 in the lottery), Cole Aldrich is the guy that I'm interested in.

Sophomore season
With the departure of the other Jayhawk big men to the NBA draft, Aldrich became the premier big-man going into his sophomore season. Through the first 29 games, he is averaging a double-double with 15.1 points and 10.8 rebounds in 29.7 minutes of play. He grabbed a career-high 20 rebounds in an 87-78 win over Oklahoma on February 23, 2009. On March 8, 2009, Aldrich was named to the 2008-09 Big 12 All-conference first team. On March 22, 2009 Aldrich recorded the first official triple-double in the history of Kansas basketball against Dayton in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Aldrich accumulated 13 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 blocks in a 60-43 victory.

[Tahoe]

I don't know anything about him, but I'd really like to draft some toughness. Whomever is the pick, make him someone who will step up when Shaq fouls Stuckey hard or something.

I like the D Blair type attitude for the Pistons.

Sheed drifts outside too much leaving a skinny AJ underneath and Tay. That doesn't work, imo.

[Glenn]

I'd like Blair too, if he wasn't 6'6".

Seems too Maxiellish.

[Timone]

I'd like Blair too, if he wasn't 6'6".

Seems too Maxiellish.

agreed.

[Tahoe]

I'd like Blair too, if he wasn't 6'6".

Seems too Maxiellish.

Agreed.

[Tahoe]

I like Blair's attitude more than his size.