UM hoops 2008-2009

[Jethro34]

Can this have its own thread? The team is actually worth talking about (a little) for the first time in years. I want to discuss in a big way without it being lost in the muck of the general thread. I'm guessing State should have their own thread as well, with posts moved in to respective threads and the general left over for other big games - as there will be plenty to talk about this season.

Anyhow, moving on to UM.

This 4-1 start is nice, but I'm wondering just how much I should be expecting based on an early measuring stick. Last year they started 3-2 through 5 and ended up 10-22. So I chose to look at the similarities and differences. Some encouraging things here, and others that show cause for concern. I think it's fair to compare, since both seasons included 3 teams that were not really challenges along with two top 10 teams.

First, I'm curious about the offense. What really hurt them last season was the fact that they simply could not shoot at all. They finished the year with a FG% of .395, which will kill any team. Well, they didn't start out quite that bad. Through 5 last year they shot .434. This year so far they're at .455. They've gotten off 8 more shots through 5 games, so the number of attempts is similar.
They aren't getting to the line any more, which is a concern. In fact, two times less so far. But they are shooting .790 this season as compared to .699 through 5 last year.
The next concern is 3 point shooting. You know that will be a staple of the Beilein game and they've taken 107 3 pt shots through 5 (112 last season). However, in spite of bringing in "shooters" like Douglass and Novak, their percentage is down (.308 instead of .375 last year).
Next concern - turnovers. 56 last year, 63 this year. Not a number that should be increasing with more comfort in the offense.
The good news, though - assists. 81 this season instead of 64 last season.

Obviously the win over UCLA, who continues to be ranked in the top 11-13, is a big difference. Losing by only 15 to Duke looks better than losing by 14 to Butler, not to mention losing by 22 to Georgetown.

Fact is, this team should enter Big Ten play no worse than 9-3, a MAJOR upgrade over last season's 4-8. Then, with LLP in place, they should be able to improve last year's 5-13 Big Ten mark to, say, 8-10.

Prediction: finishing the year 17-13 (18-13 after the Big Ten tourney) which will get them back into the NIT and be a nice improvement.
Then, assuming Manny doesn't leave, they'll bring back everyone outside of Lee, Merritt, and Shepherd (very little production from those three) and make it to the NCAA tournament the following year. If Harris leaves, however, all bets are off.

[bukdow]

Can this have its own thread? The team is actually worth talking about (a little) for the first time in years. I want to discuss in a big way without it being lost in the muck of the general thread. I'm guessing State should have their own thread as well, with posts moved in to respective threads and the general left over for other big games - as there will be plenty to talk about this season.

Anyhow, moving on to UM.

This 4-1 start is nice, but I'm wondering just how much I should be expecting based on an early measuring stick. Last year they started 3-2 through 5 and ended up 10-22. So I chose to look at the similarities and differences. Some encouraging things here, and others that show cause for concern. I think it's fair to compare, since both seasons included 3 teams that were not really challenges along with two top 10 teams.

First, I'm curious about the offense. What really hurt them last season was the fact that they simply could not shoot at all. They finished the year with a FG% of .395, which will kill any team. Well, they didn't start out quite that bad. Through 5 last year they shot .434. This year so far they're at .455. They've gotten off 8 more shots through 5 games, so the number of attempts is similar.
They aren't getting to the line any more, which is a concern. In fact, two times less so far. But they are shooting .790 this season as compared to .699 through 5 last year.
The next concern is 3 point shooting. You know that will be a staple of the Beilein game and they've taken 107 3 pt shots through 5 (112 last season). However, in spite of bringing in "shooters" like Douglass and Novak, their percentage is down (.308 instead of .375 last year).
Next concern - turnovers. 56 last year, 63 this year. Not a number that should be increasing with more comfort in the offense.
The good news, though - assists. 81 this season instead of 64 last season.

Obviously the win over UCLA, who continues to be ranked in the top 11-13, is a big difference. Losing by only 15 to Duke looks better than losing by 14 to Butler, not to mention losing by 22 to Georgetown.

Fact is, this team should enter Big Ten play no worse than 9-3, a MAJOR upgrade over last season's 4-8. Then, with LLP in place, they should be able to improve last year's 5-13 Big Ten mark to, say, 8-10.

Prediction: finishing the year 17-13 (18-13 after the Big Ten tourney) which will get them back into the NIT and be a nice improvement.
Then, assuming Manny doesn't leave, they'll bring back everyone outside of Lee, Merritt, and Shepherd (very little production from those three) and make it to the NCAA tournament the following year. If Harris leaves, however, all bets are off.

That was a lot of effort, kid. It was so thorough that you convinced me, links are better than patties

[Jethro34]

Is it too soon to second-guess myself? UM was down by 20 in the first half against SAVANNAH STATE today. Sure, it's a Savannah State team that came in 4-1, but Clemson just beat them by 32. UM eventually won, but they only won by 2 and needed OT to do it.

Biggest problem? They were shooting 3-21 from 3 point range at one point, while SS had made 6-7 or something like that.

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

Jeth, just wait. Laval Lucas-Perry is eligible to return December 20 when we play Oakland.

His shooting alone is going to slove alot of our mid-range inconsistencies, and LLP can create his own shot, so he can free up guys like Novak, Wright, and Douglass on the perimeter.

[Wilfredo Ledezma]

I mean seriously, can you imagine how much better we'd be if Ekpe didn't leave?? He was one of the top defenders in the Big Ten last year, leading the conference in blocks, and he decides to sit out a year so he can transfer to Baylor!??! I bet he was second-guessing himself when he watched UM knock of UCLA...

[Moodini31]

Is it too soon to second-guess myself? UM was down by 20 in the first half against SAVANNAH STATE today. Sure, it's a Savannah State team that came in 4-1, but Clemson just beat them by 32. UM eventually won, but they only won by 2 and needed OT to do it.

Biggest problem? They were shooting 3-21 from 3 point range at one point, while SS had made 6-7 or something like that.

Just when I was starting to get a little excited.

[MoTown]

Someone tell me why Michigan/Maryland is not on TV...

[Tahoe]

I'm getting it on ESPN U 63-59 Terps

[Tahoe]

Grady missed a bunny that could have made it interesting.

[Tahoe]

Then Wright cans a 3. Down 5 with 20 secs left.