Of the 35 Senate seats on the line this year, 23 are held by Republicans. Five Republican senators are retiring: Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, John Warner of Virginia, Larry Craig of Idaho and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.
Democrats control the Senate. Although it's split evenly with 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans, two independents -- Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut -- caucus with the Democrats.
Some believe Democrats may actually need 61 seats in order to have a majority because of the "Lieberman factor."
In 2006, Republicans lost six seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House, shifting the majority to the Democratic Party.
Rothenberg (Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report) and Sabato agree that Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire are all but a lock for Democrats. With Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens on trial on corruption charges, Alaska could go to Democrats as well.
"Minnesota, Mississippi, and Kentucky are the three states most likely to determine whether Democrats get to 60," Rothenberg said, adding the unexpectedly tight race in North Carolina between incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan could turn out detrimental for Republicans as well.
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