south carolina primary

[b-diddy]

carolyne kennedy endorsed obama, said he's the first man to inspire her the way that people tell her JFK inspired them.

i wouldnt count on an 05 route. im anticipating a split. the candidates have to rely on money and adds... if barrack keeps it close on tuesday this nominee is very winnable.

ps: im just now catching up to the racial controversy. bill calling obama reggie jackson was a blunder, obviously. it does feel like the clintons are using a bush / rovian 'all you need is 51 %' type strategy for this race. and that really bothers me, and i think alot more people. now it looks like maybe some party leaders are finally turning on bill clinton, whom has been boss of the party for 20 years.

[b-diddy]

lol at rudy giuliani. kudos for coming up with a novel campaign strategy. no one will ever use it again, but nice to see something new. all that hype and his campaign is only gonna be one day long.

[b-diddy]

and people call this guy divicive.

[Uncle Mxy]

The polls show that Hillary has double digit leads in a lot of the super tuesday states. I think Obama is toast on Feb 5th.

The polls showed Obama only winning SC by 10-15% and he won by 25-30%. The polls also showed Obama winning NH by 10% and it turned out to be basically a tie. Keep in mind that Obama was behind by double digits in 3 of the first 4 states with a couple weeks to go, but has won or tied the delegate math in all of 'em.

Whoever wins on Super Tuesday, it's unlikely to be a landslide or killing blow. Note that most of the states after Super Tuesday are ones where Obama can do quite well, though Edwards viability/spoiler effect post-Super Tuesday is a big factor. Edwards poured a ton of money into SC trying to get 2nd place, in a state where he won before, and was just blown off the map.

A bump for Hillary may come from Florida, but that's increasingly likely to get drowned out by all the Republican drama in Florida judging from the relative noise being made by the pundits. There's not a whole lot of drama to be had when no Democrat is campaigning there and no delegates at stake. If Obama can line up the Ted Kennedy endorsement, that'd be a good time to unveil it.

[b-diddy]

i just heard a stat of some sort that more people voted for obama yesterday in the primary than for kerry in the general.

look out for this general election, people saying "oh, mccain could have a chance" havent been paying attention to how energized the democratic party is. while this primary is exceptional for the dems in that we finally are choosing between two extremely electable candidates, i think the general will be a historical election.

[MikeMyers]

Not sure b-diddy. SC has a lot of black voters and they are excited over a black candidate. I believe Jesse Jackson won the state twice. Will they be that excited if Hillary gets the nomination? I don't think so.

[Tahoe]

Not so fast diddy. No one energizes the Republicans the way Hillary could. And some Dems won't vote for her either.

[Hermy]

If you aren't beating Hil by 10 right now, you aren't beating Hil. Bitch controls the dark side of the force, she and hers will make you hate her opponent just as much as her, then what have you left?

[b-diddy]

i agree that hilary could energize the republicans. but was it rush that said nominating the wrong candidate could permanently splinter the GOP? i agree. the democratic party used to be concidered the union of unrelated causes. i think the republican party has taken over that role. different factions of the party not only are unrelated, but actually against each other that one candidate could really do some damage.

but its not just sc that had record turnout, its every state... not michigan.

[Tahoe]

Yea, they sort of drag you down to their level then beat you at that game.

I lost a lil respect for Bill in this thing.