A Follow-Up on Renteria, and a Hidden Link on Attendance
by Nate Silver
There are now some news reports that the
Braves will be picking up some of Renteria’s salary. How much money is unclear; the Atlanta Journal Constitution article says “it wasn’t as much as the $8 million that Boston agreed to pay when it traded [Renteria] to the Braves”. Still, even if it’s just a few million, it could be the equivalent of the “B- or C- level prospect” that
I implied the Tigers should have gotten back in this deal.
I’ve also gotten a couple of e-mails about my claim that “Detroit is a market that appears to be quite sensitive to team quality”. I have a pet theory about this, which is that if you go into Detroit to see a ballgame, you’re there to see the ballgame. You sure as hell aren’t going there as a tourist, and unless you’re a contractor for General Motors or a candidate in the Republican caucus, you very probably are not going there as a business traveler. Contrast this to a city like Chicago. On any given day at Wrigley Field, I would guess that there are a couple thousand tourists in from Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana and downstate Illinois that are making a weekend out of their trip to Chicago, perhaps a thousand convention attendees, and maybe another thousand or two business travelers that are being wined and dined by their clients. This type of fan is probably less sensitive to the quality of the game itself than someone for whom baseball is the main attraction.
I could not find any comprehensive data on travel and tourism dollars in different US cities, but I did find a pretty good substitute, which is “Accommodation and Food Services Sales” as calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau. This category serves as proxy for a whole host of factors that might be desirable to a baseball club, such as tourist dollars, business travel, service industry infrastructure, and disposable income. Here are those numbers in each major league city, as of 1997:
New York $11,009Los Angeles $4,563Chicago $4,482Houston $3,399San Francisco $3,283Washington $2,943San Diego $2,610Dallas $2,354Boston $2,050Phoenix $2,009Philadelphia $1,692Atlanta $1,605Seattle $1,552Denver $1,335Kansas City $1,043Minneapolis $885Baltimore $850Tampa $783Miami $765St. Louis $687Pittsburgh $677Cleveland $674Milwaukee $615Detroit $575Cincinnati $564Oakland $436You should notice that there’s quite a strong correlation between this figure and baseball attendance; the only real strong outlier is St. Louis. Overall, the correlation between these numbers and average per-game attendance since 2001 is .57, which is stronger than the .53 that I got in the
much more rigorous study of market sizes that I concluded this May.
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