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From bodog.com as of this morning:
Detroit Pistons 1/1
Dallas Mavericks 3/1
San Antonio Spurs 13/4 (3.25/1)
Miami Heat 5/1
Phoenix Suns 10/1
Cleveland Cavaliers 15/1
Los Angeles Clippers 18/1
Anybody know what the Pistons odds were before Game 6 vs. Cleveland? It would be interesting to see how it has changed.
If I bet, I'm putting money on the Spurs. I don't think the Pistons, who lost to a similar SA team last year, are three times more likely than the Spurs are to win the title. Pot odds, friends.
yeah i was checking odds at the place where I bet www.thegreek.com and before game 6 they were still favored to win the whole thing. I was a bit suprised
For each team to win the championship, here are the odds at www.sportsinteraction.com:
Pistons $1.90
Spurs $3.75
Mavs $6.00
Heat $6.00
Suns $15
Clippers $21
Cavs $29
I figure only 3 teams--Pistons, Mavs, Spurs--can win the trophy. And I am willing to pay $20 for the Pistons to win the championship. That's how I rationalized betting $10 on the Mavs to win it, and then also separately betting $10 for the Spurs to win it.
That's $20 total investment, and the average payback is $48.75 ((37.50 Spurs+60.00 Mavs)/2), so the adjusted return is 48.75/20, or 2.43 times my investment. That is a good investment as long as there is at least a 41% chance (100/2.43) of either the Mavs or the Spurs winning it. Given that we could lose today, and that there's no assurance we'll beat the Heat, I say there is welll over a 41% chance of my bets panning out.
That said, betting on the Pistons to get the rings is a good bet as long as there is a 53% chance of them winning it. (100/1.9). Unfortunately, friends, I don't put our odds that high. We'd have to survive today against a team that has our number; overcome Shaq, Wade, and the refs; and then have to deal w/ either the Mavs, who are excellent, or the Spurs, who beat us last year.
I'll put it this way: I think there's far more than a 41% chance that the Spurs or the Mavs will win it--I'd put it closer to 55%. But I think that a 53% chance for the Pistons is about right, if not lower given our obstacles.
I hope you guys don't hate me.
i didnt think odds could be 1/1. so if i put $100 on the pistons, and they won, i would just get my $100 back? then id have to pay taxes on it? so id end up losing money if i bet on deeetroit and they won. lol, stupid. ive never bet so maybe im missing something but it sounds stupid.
altho realistic, i like what you did.. i always wondered if you could bet across the board and make it mathmatically possible to win money regardless (considering one of the three teams wins).
Thanks, Ux.Quote:
Originally Posted by UxKa
I even considered putting $10 more dollars down on the Heat to win it. That, along w/ my other above bets, would mean that I'd need only a 19% chance of one of those teams winning it to make a sound gamble. ((60+60+37.50)/3) = 5.23 and 100/5.23=19. But I couldn't convince myself that the Heat could beat the Mavs or the Spurs, so I didn't pull the trigger on the extra bet.
And, actually, I suspect my math is off because it assumes that each team has an equal chance of winning it, but I think the math should be more like this: [60(.1) Heat] + [60 (.25) Mavs] + [37.5 (.30) Spurs]...
I don't know. I'm confused. I got a C in Calc. Twice. Could someone good at math tell me how I should be doing the numbers? This really interests me and I'd like to make a hobby of this.
I bet Chris is good at this stuff. Anyone?
P.S. Ux, the odds for Pistons are 1.90, so if you bet $100, you'd win $190.
Glenns original post was 1/1 so i was just using that site as an example, not your specific example. but i never took calc so i cant help you there. on another note, if you took the heat too i would have to hate you lol. good luck with that though. if it pans out ill have to start looking into some investments for next season and remembering my algebra, i did tutor in that in HS.
My bad. I normally just ignore Glenn's posts...Quote:
Originally Posted by UxKa
But this stuff does interest me. A normal company, depending on the industry, is thrilled to make 10% on investment each year. If I could make that on my bets with no effort, that would be great. Of course a normal business is also able to liquidate assets, so it doesn't lose ALL the investment when things go bad. Lose a bet and you lose all the investment. So I suppose this is closer to junk bonds... But I'm excited nonetheless.
1/1 means you would win $1 for every $1 you bet
Something is fucked up on those odds, aren't they..cause if the Pistons are even money and they are the favs, then whomever is booking this is going to lose a lot of fucking money.
im not one to bet, so like i said, i could be missing something. i would think that 1/1 means you dont make money. $100 bet means you get $100 back but its the $100 you bet. thats what im assuming. 2/1 would mean you make a dollar for each dollar you bet. $100 bet gets a $200 return with $100 being what you bet, ultimately being a $100 profit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Glenn
if im wrong then teach me and i shall learn. if 1/1 means you double your money, then does that mean 2/1 you triple, 3/1 you quadruple and so on? that just doesnt make sense to me. im really really good at math but apparantly im missing something on betting odds.
UxKa, you are definately thinking of this wrong. Sometimes teams are 2/1 or even more of a favorite to win. That doesn't mean that if you bet $100 on a team that is 2/1 and you win the bet, they take $50 from you. It means that you get your bet (called the "stake") back ($100) and you get $50, 2/1 odds means it takes a $2 bet to make $1. In other words a 50% profit. Just flip the fraction (2/1 = 1/2) convert it to a percentage (1/2 = 50%) and read it as "a ___% profit if I win" (50% X $100 = $50 profit) and you should have it correctly. If you win the bet, you don't lose the money you bet with (the "stake").
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tahoe
All that means, is that they are not an overwhelming favorite (I believe). Considering that the book takes 100% of all bets on every team that doesn't win, they can afford to pay out even money or > on any team that wins it as long as the bets aren't too heavy toward any one team.
When it gets down to less teams and the betting is distributed between few options, that's when you get less than even odds. A boxing match for instance always has a favorite at less than even money because there are only 2 options for betting. The more chances for the bettor to get it wrong the higher the payout for any one correct bet (in general).
Somebody will need to correct me if I'm wrong, since it's been about 10 years since I did a lot of betting on sports.
I think you guys are confusing "odds" with "the money line".
Those are two different ways of betting.
If the odds are 1/1, for example, you would get $1 in winnings for every $1 you wager (plus your original wager back, less the "vig" (the house's take) which typically is 10%.
So if you put $10 on the Pistons to win, and they are 1/1, and they win, you'd get:
$10 (winnings) + $10 (your original wager) - $1 (the vig)= $19
As far as the money line goes, you can bet on a single game, or a series, using what is called "the money line".
In this example, the Pistons are -255 for the Heat series. That means that you would have to put up $2.55 for every $1 that you want to win.
Conversely, the Heat are +215, which means that for every $1 you put up, you get $2.15 in winnings.
I hope that helps.
you degenerate gamblers
*fires up online poker*
Pretty good esplantion Glenn and Foo.
I bet football back in the day. Money line is just as you describe, no handicapping by points, they handicap the payback, so to speak.
And Foo, I think you're right. With so many teams and only one team can win, the house would prolly have a little kitty of cash to make paybacks. And ofcourse they'd hope for an even odds team to win.
BBall has the same moneyline betting...interesting. I'm about an hour from Reno.
tooootally get it now. thanks guys :)
Updated from Bodog.com:
Detroit Pistons 10/11 (.91 to 1)
Dallas Mavericks 3/2 (1.5 to 1)
Miami Heat 4/1
Phoenix Suns 8/1
Some Pistons.Heat series odds:
Miami Heat to win in 4 games 22/1
Miami Heat to win in 5 games 17/1
Miami Heat to win in 6 games 4/1
Miami Heat to win in 7 games 5/1
Detroit Pistons to win in 4 games 10/1
Detroit Pistons to win in 5 games 3/1
Detroit Pistons to win in 6 games 7/2 (3.5 to 1)
Detroit Pistons to win in 7 games 3/1
Interesting change of events:
Detroit Pistons 3/2 (1.5 to 1)
Dallas Mavericks 2/1
Miami Heat 14/5 (2.8 to 1)
Phoenix Suns 9/2 (4.5 to 1)
The money is moving away from Detroit to win it all. Doesn't surprise me the way we're struggling in the playoffs.
Realistic,
You ever put that ten on the Heat?
Well, all of you "never say die" guys can get really good odds on the Pistons right now. Actually PHX at 6-1 in a series tied 2-2 is pretty tempting as well.
Miami Heat 11/10 (1.1 to 1)
Dallas Mavericks 5/4 (1.25 to 1)
Phoenix Suns 6/1
Detroit Pistons 9/1
The Heat are now officially the favorites.
If anybody (Heat fans) had the Heat in 5, they would be getting 17x their money if Miami wins tonight.
Yeah. I'm good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fool
Miami Heat 5/4 (1.25 to 1)
Dallas Mavericks 7/5 (1.4 to 1)
Detroit Pistons 4/1
Phoenix Suns 13/2 (6.5 to 1)
Current odds to win the NBA Championship per bodog.com (money line)
Miami +115
Dallas -135
Dallas is down 3-2 in the series, but is still a clear favorite to win, interesting.