2009 Vegas Summer League thread

I found this, but it only covers the first round:
http://i31.tinypic.com/10qmd06.jpg
http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Joe's first round picks:
12th - 53% chance, missed
9th - 63% chance, missed
23rd - 29% chance, hit
2nd - 92% chance, missed
25th - 26% chance, missed
26th - 24% chance, did ok
27th - 23% chance, did ok
15th - 45% chance, hit
29th - 21% chance, missed

that's a bad track record. I would expect of the 5 picks in the 20's that only 1 would pan out and 1-2 more become role players. That is exactly what happened so his track record is good there.

The problem is with 4 top 15 picks, we should have hit on 2-3 of those and we only hit on Stuckey.

Yeah, second rounders are a crap shoot. But when you underachieve on first rounders people start to put 2nd rounders under a microscope too.

FWIW, I was pretty adamant about wanting CDR with our 1st round pick, then he slipped past us in the 2nd.

Don't assume we hit on Stuckey just yet. He has to prove himself still. This season should be a good indicator, if he makes strides or stays where he was last season.

Which of those picks is Delfino? I'd classify him as a "did ok", he had the potential to turn into a hit before the knee injury but a fluke injury isn't the GM or scout's fault. That's like saying Len Bias is a blemish on the record of whoever drafted him. No one knew he was going to OD, and you can't say "they should have known he had a drug problem" because half the league did back then.

I would expect of the 5 picks in the 20's that only 1 would pan out and 1-2 more become role players. That is exactly what happened.
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trouble is "panned out" means "hit" meaning 4 of 5 when he had a 20% chance with each.

That's outstanding.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zekyl

FWIW, I was pretty adamant about wanting CDR with our 1st round pick, then he slipped past us in the 2nd.

Yeah, I bashed both picks and wanted DeAndre, but I'm over it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hermy

I would expect of the 5 picks in the 20's that only 1 would pan out and 1-2 more become role players. That is exactly what happened.
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trouble is "panned out" means "hit" meaning 4 of 5 when he had a 20% chance with each.

That's outstanding.

Percent chances on our picks in the 20's:
29, 26, 24, 23, 21

If all are 20 percent we should hit on 1 of the 5. We did that with Tay. I considered all those extra percentages above 20 to equate to expecting 1-2 being role players.

Like I said, Joe did well with the picks in the 20's.

He completely bombed the lotto/near lotto picks. And Zekyl is right, we can't even consider Stuckey a hit yet. I'd bet on it rather than against it, but we don't really know yet.

So hit only equals star? What does hit mean Chris? Give me a borderline example on both sides.

I mean, if the #2 pick hits >90% of the time, explain Darko, Swift, Williams, Bradley, Ferry, Bias, Bowie, Stipanovich, Griffith......?????

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kstat

finally, some common sense.

If Dajuan Summers and Jonas Jerebko can't play, then I'll never get excited over a 2nd rounder ever again. But I know for a fact they are both NBA-ready players. These guys are not projects.

No you don't.

Thank you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hermy

I mean, if the #2 pick hits >90% of the time, explain Darko, Swift, Williams, Bradley, Ferry, Bias, Bowie, Stipanovich, Griffith......?????

Hmm, after reading it all it isn't saying the chances of a hit. It's the % better than the next pick. So at #2 there is a %90 chance that the player taken there is better than #3.

Not that much different unless both players are busts. Then you had a %90 chance of getting a 'better' bust.

So Joe had a %90 chance of getting a better player than the Nuggs could at #3, and so on.