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West: Seeds 3, 4 and 5
By Graydon Gordian
TrueHoop Network
As I write this, the Spurs, Rockets, and Blazers all possess a 52-28 record. Currently, the Spurs are in the third seed, followed by the Rockets in fourth and the Blazers in fifth. But if all three teams win their remaining two games, all three will finish in a different position. Let's see if we can make sense of this.
Editor's Note: The Nuggets are currently in second with a record of 53-27 so by no means are they untouchable. But to secure the second seed, all they need to do is win one game. With a matchup against the league-worst Kings in Denver Monday night, we decided to focus on seeds three through five.
Currently Third: The San Antonio Spurs (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: At Golden State, vs. Hornets
Fourth Seed: The Houston Rockets (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Hornets, at Dallas
Fifth Seed: The Portland Trail Blazers (52-28)
Remaining Schedule: vs. Thunder, vs. Nuggets
If all three teams win out, the Spurs would fall to fifth in the West. They are currently in third because they possess a 9-6 record against the Southwest Division while Houston is only 8-6. But Houston closes the season with two division games. If both teams finish the year 10-6 against division opponents (as well as 36-16 against conference opponents) Houston will win the fifth tiebreaker, having won more games against Western Conference playoff opponents. The Spurs will drop to fifth if their record ends up tied with Portland, as the Blazers won the season series 3-1.
If the Rockets and the Spurs both go 1-1 over their last two, the key is which team the Spurs lose to: If the Spurs lose to New Orleans and both teams finish 53-38, the Rockets will still have the tiebreaker. If the Spurs lose to the Warriors but beat the Hornets, the Spurs will possess the better record against the division. (Remember, any Rockets loss from here on out is a division loss).
If the Blazers finish with a better record than the Spurs and Rockets, they'll secure the 3 seed. But if they tie either, the highest they can finish is fourth. If the Spurs win the Southwest, they'll finish third despite having lost the season series against Portland (division winner is the first tiebreaker; head-to-head is second). If the Rockets lose the division but end up tied with Portland, Houston will still be the fourth seed, having won the season series 2-1.
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West: Seeds 6, 7 and 8
By Ryan Schwan
TrueHoop Network
As the regular season enters its final three days, the Western Conference playoff picture is anything but set, with seeds two through eight still in play. Though the race for seeds two through four and home-court advantage in the first round remains compelling, there is a drama developing at the bottom of the pack as three teams fight to stay out of the eighth and final seed and a first-round date with the powerhouse Lakers.
All three teams have exactly two games remaining, but the team at the top, New Orleans, has two tough road games against Houston and San Antonio remaining, while both Dallas and Utah have a somewhat easier pair of games left. Utah also owns tiebreakers against both teams above them, further complicating the picture. The teams in question:
Currently sixth seed: New Orleans Hornets(49-31)
Remaining schedule: At Rockets, at San Antonio
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas having won the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah having lost the season series 3-0
Currently seventh seed: Dallas Mavericks(48-32)
Remaining schedule: Minnesota, at Houston
Loses tiebreaker vs. Hornets having lost the season series 3-1
Loses tiebreaker vs. Utah by having a worse conference record (currently 32-18 to 27-23 with no way to make up the difference)
Currently eighth seed: Utah Jazz (47-33)
Remaining schedule: Clippers, at Lakers
Wins tiebreaker vs. Dallas by having a better conference record
Wins tiebreaker vs. New Orleans having won the season series 3-0.
Though the three teams only have two games left, the possible outcomes of those games combine to form 27 different final records for the three teams in question. In an effort to handicap the race, here's a fast and dirty breakdown of how each of those 27 scenarios treat each team:
The Hornets have a clear advantage, owning the tiebreaker over the Mavericks and a two-game lead over the Jazz. Out of those 27 possible combinations, only one ends with the Hornets in the eighth seed, and a mere four end with the Hornets holding the seventh seed. Really, all the Hornets have to do to avoid the Lakers is win one game -- or have the Jazz or Mavericks lose one.
The Mavericks, despite their one-game advantage over Utah, have to deal with the fact that they will lose the tiebreaker with either of their opponents. There are only three possible outcomes where they can take the sixth seed, 15 where they take the seventh, and nine where they fall to eighth. In the end, however, they can still control whether they avoid the dreaded date in Hollywood by simply winning as many games as the Jazz do this week.
The Jazz are in the unenviable position of not controlling their own fate. The only way they can gain ground is to have the Mavericks lose at least once, or the Hornets fail spectacularly. As a result, there are only two scenarios where they can take the sixth seed, eight scenarios where they can take the seventh seed, and 17 scenarios in which they remain an eighth seed.
One of the two best scenarios for the Jazz would be if all three teams ended with the exact same record of 49-33. Should that occur, the Hornets would win the tiebreaker over the Mavericks, the Jazz win the tiebreaker over the Hornets, and the seeding would end up with the Jazz in sixth, Hornets in seventh, and Mavericks in eighth. Based on the schedule, this outcome isn't even that far-fetched as the Hornets battle two tough teams fighting for seeding, the Mavericks could easily split games against the Timberwolves and Houston, and the Jazz may be able to take both games as the Clippers prepare to head home and the Lakers already have their seeding locked and may let the visitors steal one.