Vegas line is 6.5

My vote will be based on two assumptions that never hold true:

1) the OL plays ok (i'm not sold on the new players at all), and Kitna is not running for his life again.

2) the defense stays somewhat healthy (we don't lose more than 1 at DT/LB/CB for a long stretch of time.

If those hold true, I think the offense will be good enough to get us 7-9 wins, even though the defense might blow. I'm going with 8, though my better judgement is probably 6 or 7 based on a hard schedule.

Take the under.

notice I said they never hold true. When the OL is a sieve and Rogers/Bryant/Bailey/Lehman miss half the year we'll win 4 games again.

Sun 9/9 at Oakland W
Sun 9/16 Minnesota W
Sun 9/23 at Philadelphia L
Sun 9/30 Chicago L
Sun 10/7 at Washington L
bye L
Sun 10/21 Tampa Bay W
Sun 10/28 at Chicago L
Sun 11/4 Denver L
Sun 11/11 at Arizona L
Sun 11/18 NY Giants W
Thu 11/22 Green Bay W
Sun 12/2 at Minnesota L
Sun 12/9 Dallas L
Sun 12/16 at San Diego L
Sun 12/23 Kansas City L
Sun 12/30 at Green Bay L

Sun 9/9 at Oakland W
Sun 9/16 Minnesota W
Sun 9/23 at Philadelphia W
Sun 9/30 Chicago T
Sun 10/7 at Washington T
bye
Sun 10/21 Tampa Bay W
Sun 10/28 at Chicago T
Sun 11/4 Denver W
Sun 11/11 at Arizona W
Sun 11/18 NY Giants W
Thu 11/22 Green Bay W
Sun 12/2 at Minnesota W
Sun 12/9 Dallas T
Sun 12/16 at San Diego T
Sun 12/23 Kansas City W
Sun 12/30 at Green Bay T

We will make the playoffs


http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k70/WTFchris/other/RoyEyes.jpg

i guessed 7 so the line being 6.5 sounds perfect to me.

but 7 is me gorging on all the cornbread i can find, and completely overlooking our inevitable qb cotastrophy waiting for us when (not if) kitna goes down.

You all need to eat more cornbread. I was sad a 17 or more option was not available.

Before I even opened the thread I thought about it and my cornbread packed gut was saying 7 as well. It just seems as the the team absolutely must make a solid improvement this year, and yet I can't imagine they'll actually be within a game of .500. I'm thinking that if they can manage 7 wins, it would be the 5 Glenn predicted plus Washington and Arizona, but that means they would be 7-4 at one point. Not happening. So I have to back off my 7 by a game and go with 6. No solid logic, really.

Well, Glenn said the Lions would lose the bye week, so factor that in.

The Lions are 0-5 vs. the last 5 bye weeks.

I'm just playing the trends here.

At least they aren't on the road then, or the record would be worse.

You all need to eat more cornbread. I was sad a 17 or more option was not available.

You're telling me...16 is just underachieving.

If you average the 9 sensible predictions so far (sorry DBTM & Tim) you get 6.333.

We're in harmony with Vegas.

If you average the 9 sensible predictions so far (sorry DBTM & Tim) you get 6.333.

We're in harmony with Vegas.


When they win 17 in the regular season, you know who is going to eat crow.

I guess DBTM and Tim subscribe to the Antione Walker school of sports logic.

(shooting 3's because there are no 4's)

Hey, at least I keep a gun in the house.

whats the website for win total over / unders?

http://www.bodog.com/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

I'm buying Marinelli. I'm buying Martz. To a degree I'm all in on son-in-law Joe Barry. In this instance I'm feeling Nepotism. Remember when Marinelli stayed pat with Donnie Edwards last year it was because "Chuckie" wouldn't let go of Barry in Tampa Bay. Why do you s'pose that was? Speaks volumes if you ask me. Barry will have to coach 'em up and with the help of Pops-In-Law Marinelli he will. It won't be pretty but he'll get them to the point where they will compete but Lion "W's" will come by OUTSCORING the opposition. This is going to be an exciting year with some moments of raw fresh brilliance and times when the team takes a step back. Total gut feeling. I truly think there is something special with Coach M. Now we play the games. Trust me. The "TURN AROUND" is brewing. It's been a long time and it will be sweet.

Take the under.

This quote should be in every single thread in this forum.

I'm buying Marinelli. I'm buying Martz. To a degree I'm all in on son-in-law Joe Barry. In this instance I'm feeling Nepotism. Remember when Marinelli stayed pat with Donnie Edwards last year it was because "Chuckie" wouldn't let go of Barry in Tampa Bay. Why do you s'pose that was? Speaks volumes if you ask me. Barry will have to coach 'em up and with the help of Pops-In-Law Marinelli he will. It won't be pretty but he'll get them to the point where they will compete but Lion "W's" will come by OUTSCORING the opposition. This is going to be an exciting year with some moments of raw fresh brilliance and times when the team takes a step back. Total gut feeling. I truly think there is something special with Coach M. Now we play the games. Trust me. The "TURN AROUND" is brewing. It's been a long time and it will be sweet.

I like the coaching staff and the schemes. I just don't have faith in the amount of talent we have in place thanks to Millen. I think Rod has had a huge hand in the current rookies (taking five-oh and alexander before expected), but our LB core (outside Sims) are a bunch of crap that Millen drafted that Rod might not be able to use properly. Guys like Bailey and Lehman aren't even starters (or end up that way by default).

Hilarious front page. Hilarious.

"Jon Kitna" voted for 10 wins, lol.

We need a "Roy Williams" also.

i played madden 08 on tuesday. 3 things of note for the lions:

-its impossible to run with kj without also fumbling the ball

-cj is a perfect wide reciever

-our defense wont get off the field this year. i had that same sinking fealing you always get after the lions let up their 3rd consecutive 3rd and long... ughh. it was like deja vu, only it was the first part of the deja vu where you know your about to experience the exact same thing at a later date. ive had the deja, and im dreading the vu.

in short, while playing 08 i threw up a little conbread in my mouth.

I'm going to get it for the Wii. The reviews were very good on it. Should be fun to throw Kitna INT's with the remote.

in short, while playing 08 i threw up a little conbread in my mouth.
You better start choking that shit back down!!!

:cornbread:
:cornbread text:

Maybe 16 wins isn't that impossible after all.

:cornbread:

I say Lions go 6-10...a bit better than last year, but still probably a top 10 pick in the draft to get Chadwick Henne...

Damn... that would ruin Henne's career before it started.

That would be something to have Stanton and Henne battle for the Lions QB job. Lol

That would be something to have Stanton and Henne battle for the Lions QB job. Lol


Would cause multiple one week self-imposed exoduses from the NCAA board.

Would cause multiple one week self-imposed exoduses from the NCAA board.

True. I think the boards would have to be shut down for good.

If you average the 9 sensible predictions so far (sorry DBTM & Tim) you get 6.333.

We're in harmony with Vegas.


Avg is now 6.83

Hello, new poster here. I've been a big fan of this site and have been reading the forums for a long time, but I've never actually had the stones to post here (though I have sometimes posted on realgm as detroiterabroad). I'm looking forward to being a part of these forums.

I voted for eight wins actually. Aside from any possible alcohol consumption I've had today (this week is the yearly festival for my neighborhood here in Barcelona) I'm loaded on Honolulu blue Kool-aid and cornbread as well. The biggest reason for it? Marinelli. Without a doubt, eventhough this is hardly a big stretch to say, we've got the best coach ever in my lifetime (like I said, a pretty easy statement there).

But what I really like about him is that for once we actually have a coach that understands that football is all about details. Sure we have a potent offense and that will be key to at least half our wins. But how many times have we seen the Lions blow easy games or even possible games, due to a millon brain farts over a 60 minute stretch? We may actually be looking at a team that won't blow a game due to sheer stupidity or lack of attention. I'm not drunk enough (either from the wine nor the Kool-aid) to think playoffs, but I am drunk enough to think that we just may not shoot ourselves in the foot too many times over the season.

If we can keep the turnovers down, finally get a few of them ourselves, stop with all the stupid penalties and blown assignments...well it won't be enough to get us into the postseason of course. But I hope it could be enough to at least take the 4 or 5 winnable games on the schedule, get us another 3 or 4 tough games we normally wouldn't win or at least maybe pull a win or two in games we definitely shouldn't have won.

I know that it's probably hoping for too much; but hell, my family's season ticket holders, what else have we ever had to hold on to?

Nice first post.

Welcome, look forward to reading your opinions.

great first post detroitexport.....I think you're right on with the Lions this year.

I was in Barcelona once.....I was drunk just about the entire time and don't remember much

Not too surprising Wizzle. Barcelona is probably the easiest city in the world, and one of the best ones too, for that. Believe it or not, Madrid actually even beats Barcelona in that department hands down.

yup, don't remember much of that stop either

No game thread for the opener yet? i think it was a great idea for detroit and oakland to meet in the first game. Maybe they can set up a new division with cleveland, houston, oakland and detroit just to give the fans some hope for once. The winner could play in the playoffs against one of the teams currently getting a bye, a glorified scrimmage if you will.

I would put arizona in, but i actually think they'll be decent soon.

Theismann has the Lions winning the wildcard.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview07/news/story?id=2984130

Anybody still wondering why he was demoted from MNF?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=fleming/070906&sportCat=nfl


Take a deep breath ... the Lions won't be good

By David Fleming
Page 2

According to my buddy Or (that's his name), the hot bet these days in my hometown of Detroit is the "over" on the Lions winning eight games this season. At first I thought he was joking. Eight games? The Lions? The De-troit Lions? Now, I know quarterback Jon Kitna and others are predicting 10 wins and a trip to the playoffs. I know rook Calvin Johnson seems like the real deal. And I know the Saints' leap from 3-13 in 2005 to the 2006 NFC championship game has given football fans in places like Arizona, Houston and Detroit (sorry Oakland) a renewed sense of hope. And, honestly, who wouldn't want to witness a Lions' turnaround and an end to all the senseless suffering in Motown?

But I just couldn't let a friend throw away his hard-earned coin like that.

So just as we've done with the 2005 Bears QBs and the 2006 Browns centers, I promised Or I would explain to him, in one simple sentence, just what the Lions would have to overcome before he takes that over bet.

So here we go.

Deep breath everyone.

The Lions were 9-7 in 2000 and missed the playoffs by one play (a game-winning 54-yard field goal by the Bears on the last snap of the season) when owner William Clay Ford, the great grandson of Henry Ford himself, pulled his own uber-Edsel and tabbed former NFL linebacker Matt Millen to run the franchise for a cool $3 million a year, despite the fact that Millen would continue to live in Pennsylvania most of the time (the Lions are located in Michigan), that he was legally blind in his eye for talent, that he wore sneakers with suits and that he possessed no actual front office experience of any kind whatsoever, zero organizational skills and, on occasion, the social couth of Britney Spears -- fatal flaws that first showed up with Millen's doomed decision to let interim coach Gary Moeller go in favor of the 49ers unknown and slightly quirky offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, who has since become a good coach but was overmatched at the time and consequently went 5-27 -- a historic run of ineptitude highlighted by two things: his decision to kick the ball after winning a coin toss in overtime; and the choice of quarterback Joey Harrington as the third pick overall in the 2002 draft; Harrington, of course, was the first in a string of draft blunders by Millen (including, but not limited to, first-round busts wideouts Charles Rogers and Mike Williams) which were then layered by even poorer decisions in free agency that -- because of the current economic structure of the game that places a premium on fortifying your roster with inexpensive, young talent through the draft -- have crippled the the Lions at a rate of two years for every bad draft, which, by my calculations, puts them in the clear somewhere around 2047--something Millen might understand by now had he not spent so much time doing damage control for things like telling Mike Ditka during a radio interview about one of his players who was a "devout coward"; the true definition of which Millen himself conveyed a little later when he told Mornhinweg his job was safe while, behind his back, he was negotiating to bring in former 49ers coach Steve Mariucci, something he did, but only after being fined $200,000 by the league for not interviewing a minority candidate, an egregious error, to be sure, but also another fundamental, fatal, front office flaw considering how Mooch's schemes didn't match well with the personnel Millen had been able to cobble together through years of under drafting and over spending, leading to yet another season of futility, another sickening outburst (after a loss in Kansas City in 2003 Millen shouted a homophobic slur at Chiefs wideout Johnny Morton but kept his job) which led to the first recorded speculation four years ago about Millen's imminent dismissal (when, in fact, no one ever gets fired in this franchise, not even people who can't dress themselves) and then to what I think is the lowest point in the franchise's 77-year history: when Ford himself said he actually was pleased with Millen's drafts and his leadership and scoffed at complaints about Millen's 10-38 start, saying, "the fans, and I don't blame them, are interested in the won-loss record and I guess that's the barometer you judge success or failure by if you're a fan"; well, right, exactly, because everyone knows how unfair and subjective those silly NFL standings can be, I mean, that would be like someone measuring the Lions' heart only by that string of 24 consecutive road losses or something like the Ford Motor Company being judged strictly by its losses, layoffs and plant closings like the ones going on when, in 2005, Millen was given a FIVE-YEAR CONTRACT EXTENSION (the second most shocking thing in Michigan sports history after the App State loss) and Mooch was fired but allowed to continue earning more than $10 million not to coach the Lions -- something most NFL coaches would gladly do for free, just not potential candidates in Detroit like Jim Haslett and Russ Grimm who never received the courtesy of a phone call from Millen after he hired Rod Marinelli, a well-respected coach from Tampa who, nonetheless, led the Lions backwards to 13 more losses (seven of them on the road) and a humiliating 27-10 shellacking by Miami and former Millen scapegoat Joey Harrington on, of all days, Thanksgiving which, at least, inspired fan protests and walk-outs like the Millen Man March as Detroit -- softer (32nd in rushing and 28th in total defense), sloppier (minus-9 in turnover ratio) and slower than ever before -- suffered its sixth-straight losing season under Millen (who is now 24-72 with a league-worst .250 winning percentage during his realm despite once promising to "get out" if he couldn't win it all in five years) which, one could argue, did put the Lions in a position to draft fourth-time's-the-charm wideout Calvin Johnson whose huge frame fits perfectly with the rounded routes of offensive coordinator Mike Martz's schemes, thus giving the Lions the potential for a scary-good offense with a loaded backfield, a better line and three legit, downfield homerun hitters (Mike Furrey increased his catches by, oh, 97 balls in 2006); which, trust me, I know, is like waving a Vernors, a Coney (no mustard, light onions) and some Sanders ice cream under the noses of starving Lions fans, but could still all be for not if Kitna, 34, who got sacked 63 times in 2006, can't stay healthy and Millen's stellar backup plan, someone named Dan Orlovsky (career passing: 63 yards) takes over for the Motor City Kitties: a transaction that likely would lead to what is the only sure bet with the Lions these days: another contract extension for Millen.

He's just trying to stay humble IMO.

Sun 9/9 at Oakland W
Sun 9/16 Minnesota W
Sun 9/23 at Philadelphia L
Sun 9/30 Chicago L
Sun 10/7 at Washington L
bye L
Sun 10/21 Tampa Bay W
Sun 10/28 at Chicago L
Sun 11/4 Denver L
Sun 11/11 at Arizona L
Sun 11/18 NY Giants W
Thu 11/22 Green Bay W
Sun 12/2 at Minnesota L
Sun 12/9 Dallas L
Sun 12/16 at San Diego L
Sun 12/23 Kansas City L
Sun 12/30 at Green Bay L

Now the fun begins...

I think they'll win @ KC, they are atrocious, and I think they will have a great shot at winning @ MIN and Vs. the Cardinals...

@ Washington could be a toss up too!, but the Lions never win in DC, if the opposing team has a lousy QB, the Lions have a great shot at winning IMO...

McCown, Jackson...

We're still on target to go 19-0. Just remember that.

bump:




Sun 9/9 at Oakland W
Sun 9/16 Minnesota W
Sun 9/23 at Philadelphia W
Sun 9/30 Chicago T
Sun 10/7 at Washington T
bye
Sun 10/21 Tampa Bay W
Sun 10/28 at Chicago T
Sun 11/4 Denver W
Sun 11/11 at Arizona W
Sun 11/18 NY Giants W
Thu 11/22 Green Bay W
Sun 12/2 at Minnesota W
Sun 12/9 Dallas T
Sun 12/16 at San Diego T
Sun 12/23 Kansas City W
Sun 12/30 at Green Bay T

Sun 9/9 at Oakland W
Sun 9/16 Minnesota W
Sun 9/23 at Philadelphia L
Sun 9/30 Chicago L
Sun 10/7 at Washington L
bye L
Sun 10/21 Tampa Bay W
Sun 10/28 at Chicago L
Sun 11/4 Denver L
Sun 11/11 at Arizona L
Sun 11/18 NY Giants W
Thu 11/22 Green Bay W
Sun 12/2 at Minnesota L
Sun 12/9 Dallas L
Sun 12/16 at San Diego L
Sun 12/23 Kansas City L
Sun 12/30 at Green Bay L




We're still on track for the "Fire Millen Y2K7" rally on 10/21/07

And to lose our bye week. Well, I lost my prediction.

Despite them being 4-2, I'm still not seeing more than 6 wins, maybe 7, tops.

The only team in the NFC that has given up more points is the Rams.

Despite them being 4-2, I'm still not seeing more than 6 wins, maybe 7, tops.

The only team in the NFC that has given up more points is the Rams.

Well, I expect them to give up a lot of points. Face it, we have almost all new players in the secondary. Kennedy is the only starter from last year (Bryant was out a ton). We also spent a good deal of picks on offense again too (especially the #2 pick).

I am worried because they don't use KJ enough. Maybe they are taking it slow with the injury, be we don't run the ball enough, period.

Their non-division game are very tough too:

Denver
Zona
Giants
Dallas
Chargers
KC

I only see two wins there, 3 if they are very lucky.

Then you figure 1-2 wins in the division.

So, I'll say 4 more wins and 8-8, which is what I predicted in the poll.

Which two of those are you considering wins?

Probably Denver and Arizona.

Which two of those are you considering wins?

Denver or Zona, not both...and KC (they are one dimensional running team, which we can handle because our weakness is the pass defense). With our firepower I think we can win a couple of those games, even if we're not the favorite.

I think they'll win 9 or 10. Call me an optimist, but I think this team is full of fighters, and they have a collective chip on the shoulder. Sorta reminds me of the first couple years the Pistons rose from mediocrity and won 50 games.

If we could get together any form of a defense, I'd be with you 100% Atticus, but every week our defense gets trounced repeatedly. Our offense can hang with the big boys for the most part (the O-Line still has me worried that Kitna's going to get crushed one time and be out for the season), but our defense can't stop the pass to save its life.

I felt like they put together the full package today. The defense was great in stretches, though it was also average and bad at times. Call me crazy, but I just have a gut feeling that this team has what it takes to get to the playoffs. They really WANT to win, and I think that hunger will drive them.

I realize beating up on our division is the way to go, but...

Denver is beatable. I know they're only 3-3 but when you're the Lions, they looked UNbeatable at the begining of the year, along with the other AFC West teams.

Not so. At the begining of the year I wanted a split, but I want more than a split with the AFCW now that we've beaten the Raiders. Denver, SD and KC left.

Denver is beatable. Cutler has not impressed me at all. Too often he floats out of the pocket and into a sack. I can see Redding and Rogers forcing him to White/Smith/DeVries a lot. He also doesn't lead his WR's well. Actually, he reminds me a lot of Joey in his first couple years. I guess they say he's a great leader, but his play isn't that great.

Also, Champ and Bly both play tight. I have a feeling Bly will be iso on CJ a lot this game (with Champ on Roy) and CJ could burn him big time with that speed.

Giants L
Pack W
Vikings W
Cowboys L
Chargers L
Chiefs W
Pack L

9-7

Giants- W 7-3 (NYG isn't that good (they've beaten about the same type of mediocre teams we have), need to put pressure on Eli, and run the damn ball)

Packers- W 8-3- (I think we could steal this one, I think the Lions are a different team at home)

@ Vikings- W 9-3- (No AP, Tarvaris Jackson can't throw, the Lions should be able to contain Chester Taylor, and they should win this game)

Cowboys- L 9-4- (Dallas might be the best in the NFC, we beat them last year, I hope we can keep it close)

@ Chargers- L 9-5 (Merriman and Philips could combine for 10 sacks in this game)

Chiefs- W 10-5 (LJ may or may not be back by this time, KC could have Croyle in QB by this time, and a mediocre defense, plus they haven't played great on the road)


@ Packers- L 10-6 (ain't winning at Lambeau in December, or ever)


10-6, Wildcard

Out of the games you'd think they should win (@ Minny, vs. KC, maybe even at home vs. GB), there has to be one they totally fuck themselves in and end up losing.

9-7 is obtainable, but given they are the Lions I am playing it safe and sticking with 8-8.

The next game is huge though. They probably have to win to be ahead of NY at the end of the season. If NY wins, I see 9-10 wins from them and the Lions won't get 10-11 wins (would have lost the tiebreaker).

The Skins have a pretty tough schedule left. I see about 3 wins there, which means the Lions would need those 3-4 wins to stay ahead of them (we lost to Washington too remember).

We have a 2 game lead on everyone else, so if we win 3 of these we should be in great shape. We could still win 9 and miss the playoffs with losses to the Skins and Giants though.

10-6, Wildcard

In the words of Zip, lemme ax you dis: which Wildcard spot do you forsee them getting? The 1st or 2nd? I guess it matters, because it'd earn them either a trip to TB (who I still think will hold on) or Seattle in the Wildcard round.

Out of the games you'd think they should win (@ Minny, vs. KC, maybe even at home vs. GB), there has to be one they totally fuck themselves in and end up losing.
:cogent:

In the words of Zip, lemme ax you dis: which Wildcard spot do you forsee them getting? The 1st or 2nd? I guess it matters, because it'd earn them either a trip to TB (who I still think will hold on) or Seattle in the Wildcard round.


the second WC spot, I think they'd have a chance to win the wild card game, but they'd probably lose regardless of who they play...

(from Mlive)Here is Sunday's schedule for the 6-5 Detroit Lions' closest competitors for the second, and final, wild-card position:

Washington (5-6)
home vs. Buffalo (5-6)
• Redskins hold tie-breaker due to head-to-head meeting.)

Philadelphia (5-6)
home vs. Seattle (7-4)
• Eagles hold tie-breaker due to head-to-head meeting.

Arizona (5-6)
home vs. Cleveland (7-4)
• Cardinals hold tie-breaker due to head-to-head meeting.

Minnesota (5-6)
home vs. Detroit (6-5)
• If Detroit wins Sunday, Lions would hold tiebreaker due to head-to-head meetings.
• If Detroit loses Sunday, Lions would hold tiebreaker due to better division record.

Chicago (5-6)
home vs. N.Y. Giants (7-4)
• Lions hold tiebreaker due to head-to-head meetings.

New Orleans (5-6)
home vs. Tampa Bay (7-4)
• Saints hold tiebreaker due to better conference record.