Ok, I've undertaken a little project here. I hate Todd Jones. Everyone knows that. I wanted to see, statistically, how he compares with every other teams closer.

Here's what I did. I went through every teams stats and took the numbers of the player currently on their roster with the most saves. Therefore I got the 30 primary closers in the league.

First, I added up the total number of innings they've combined to pitch and the total earned runs (1,119 innings, 373 ER) to find that their cumulative ERA, the average for closers in this league, is precisely 3.00. That means his 5.06 ERA going into tonight's game was 2 full runs per 9 inningsd more than the average closer.
He's allowed 21 earned runs. Only one closer in the league has allowed more (the Astros Wheeler, who has allowed 27 but has pitched 6.2 more innings). Two others are tied at 21 with him, but of the 2 only Joe Borowski has pitched fewer innings, 1.2 innings, fewer.
Only 3 have fewer strikeouts, but they have also pitched fewer innings. (Huston Street has 1 fewer strikeouts but has pitched half the innings, Trevor Hoffman has 1 fewer strikeout in 4.1 fewer innings, and Philly's Alfonseca is a mess when it comes to strikeouts. They have Myers closing some games as well, and he's a strikeout machine)

So there isn't a closer in the league that is worse in both ER allowed and strikeouts. Todd is bottom 4 in both categories.
It's begs the question, how many closers are legitimately worse than Todd? Perhaps Alfonseca. I can't find another clear name. While some may have worse ERA's, they are more imposing and can crank it up when necessary.
Todd's just junk.

So we've been talking at times about who could be a better closer. The answer is apparently any other closer in the league. Seriously, if we had straight swapped ANYONE in the league at the beginning of the year, wouldn't we be better off?

So as the trade deadline nears and the question of our bullpen rises, we don't necessarily have to have Eric Gagne, do we? Wouldn't any closer from somewhere other than Philly be an upgrade?

Well, I'm no MLB elite, so I only know about half the closers...I couldn't rank Jones. I do know he sucks as a closer though. Especially when he's closing games that Rogers or Nate pitch in. I'd like to see some stats on that actually. What are his numbers following finesse pitchers vs power pitchers? Jones did ok last year because teams had just got mowed down by Joel or Rodney at 100 MPH. It's like picking up a chick off the rebound. Without the rebound the guy didn't have the skills to close the deal (pun intended).

i dont know. his #'s arent good but he still usually gets the job done. is he the worst? hard to say that with all those saves. i say be careful of what you wish for. closing a game is tough. jones might not be the best pitcher in the world, but he's one of the toughest mentally i'd have to say.

besides, the rollercoaster was teacups last night.

http://www.sallys-place.com/images/travel/Teacups%20200X197.jpg

How hard is it to get the job done though? Is there a stat that shows his average run cusion when he comes in? obviously it isn't 4 since he wouldn't come in for most non save situations. But what if he gets a 2-3 run margain of error a night? Is it really that hard to come in with nobody on base and only allow 2 runs in one inning?

Millions of dollars and a ton of ruined careers would say, "Yes".

Keep in mind that with an ERA around 5, that means that if you pitch one inning every time out, on average you allow 1 run in that inning every other time you're out there.

Now, the reason it doesn't go like that with Todd is because he's an all or nothing guy. It's almost a lock that guys will get on base when he's out there. He's going to let 1 or 2 on and just hope to strand them. That means when he blows it, he usually blows it big. He lets those two get on and then gives up an extra base hit - meaning instead of giving up one run, he's likely to give up multiple runs.

Here's the deceptive part. 31 of his 40 outings he has kept the other team from scoring. Generally with a closer that would be excellent, because with many other closers they perhaps give up A run in those 9 outings. If Todd had done that, limited his 9 outings in which people scored to just allowing a single run, the Tigers would have 4 more wins, Todd 4 more saves, and Todd sporting a 2.13 ERA. He would be getting mentioned as one of the best closers in the game. But because he allows so many base runners (44 hits + 15 walks in 38 innings = 1.55 baserunners per inning), he has become the poster boy for "when it rains it pours".
I certainly wouldn't mind 4 extra wins, especially since one of them would be over Cleveland.
We would be 59-32, Cleveland 54-39, and we would have a 6 game lead in the division and the best record in baseball by 3 games.

Todd Jones, you ARE the weakest link.

Up next: Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge, can't the brothers just hit .260? Is that too much to ask?

Todd Jones is not allowed to have any coffee.

http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x147/dspiewak/db_glenros.jpg

isnt jones converting about 85 % of his saves? whats good?

85 % doesnt seem like a huge problem to me.

hes certainly upgradeable, and he may even be this team's biggest problem right now, but i wouldnt scrap the farm system for an upgrade.

In related news, Brad Lidge got his first save since 2006 last night.

i just did a little research, and 18 pitchers have 4 or more blown saves. TJ has 4. 23 more pitchers have 3 blown saves.

a W is a W.

i just did a little research, and 18 pitchers have 4 or more blown saves. TJ has 4. 23 more pitchers have 3 blown saves.

a W is a W.


This despite being 4th in save opportunities....which are also blown save opportunities.

isnt jones converting about 85 % of his saves? whats good?

85 % doesnt seem like a huge problem to me.

hes certainly upgradeable, and he may even be this team's biggest problem right now, but i wouldnt scrap the farm system for an upgrade.

I guess it's the old saying "you're playing with fire"

Getting burnt once and a while isn't bad, but you have to remember blowing 1 out of 6 save chances can be a huge deal in the playoffs. The games are tighter because teams send their best pitchers out there only. With tight games and blowing 1 of 6 chances, you might see 3-4 games lost in the playoffs just because of Jones (assuming we'd go far). That can be the difference in a series for sure.


i just did a little research, and 18 pitchers have 4 or more blown saves. TJ has 4. 23 more pitchers have 3 blown saves.

a W is a W.

How many of those 18 pitchers are on current playoff teams though? Just because a crap team is blowing saves doesn't make me feel any better. Saying the Pistons play better defense than the Hawks means nothing. You have to compare it to a contender.

Indeed, 18+23 = 41. There are only 30 teams. What are the save/blown save ratios of the real closers for all 30 teams.

Current AL playoff teams (and contenders):

Boston - Papelbon = 1.82 ERA and 1 blown save
Cleveland - Borowski = 5.15 and 3 BLSV
LA Angels - F Rod = 2.16 and 2 BLSV
Tigers - Jones = 4.81 and 4 BLSV

Seattle - Putz = 0.79 ERA and 0 BLSV
Twins - Nathan = 2.03 and 2 BLSV
Yankees - Rivera = 3.18 and 3 BLSV

So the Indians are the only team with a similar closer situation to us. That doesn't make me feel good at all.

Someone else can do the NL if they want to, but this gives you a good picture of the top 7 teams and how our bullpen is either worst or 2nd to worst.

i have an idea that would undo the greatest sports injustice of our time and fix the bullpen at the same time. the ol 2 birds one stone trick.

http://espn.go.com/media/mlb/2005/1212/photo/jail2.jpg

i have an idea that would undo the greatest sports injustice of our time

You are going to unsuspend Amare & Diaw and replay Game 6?

I guess it's the old saying "you're playing with fire"

Getting burnt once and a while isn't bad, but you have to remember blowing 1 out of 6 save chances can be a huge deal in the playoffs. The games are tighter because teams send their best pitchers out there only. With tight games and blowing 1 of 6 chances, you might see 3-4 games lost in the playoffs just because of Jones (assuming we'd go far). That can be the difference in a series for sure.

Wow.

This is the same garbage people were spewing last year at the AS break. And what happened after all the misinformed fans who don't even watch baseball jumped the gun and wanted Jones gone? He pitched a pretty damn good 2nd half and converted every single save in the postseason, allowing only a run.

I guess it's an old saying "counting your eggs before they hatch".

"patience is a virtue" is also a good saying


85-95 percent is a pretty good range for closers. That's where most good closers are at. Now that Todd Jones has started to establish his secondary pitches and not getting behind hitters, a 90 percentile save percentage, nor a respectable, isn't out of question.

I think Todd Jones is a good solid pitcher. Not great, but definitely not the weakest link on this team. That honor either goes to Grilli or Kraig Monroe. Everyone else is just fine to me, including Sean Casey.

Craig is now spelling his name Kraig? I wonder if Kraig with a K can hit .260. That would be sweet. Right now the only K associated with him comes once every 3 at-bats.
Additional stats on the 7 guys mentioned above. I talked about how Todd lets too many people reach base, setting himself up for not just allowing the occasional run, but often blowing it with multiple runs allowed. Here are the WHIP (walks+hits per inning pitched) and BAA (batting average against) for those 7. Todd has easily the worst WHIP, and 2nd worst to Borowski in BAA, with the next worst being 40 points better.

Papelbon - 0.84 WHIP, .153 BAA
Borowski - 1.39 WHIP, .299 BAA
F Rod - 1.10 WHIP, .197 BAA
Jones - 1.53 WHIP, .283 BAA

Putz - 0.55 WHIP, .123 BAA
Nathan - 1.14 WHIP, .242 BAA
Rivera - 1.03 WHIP, .242 BAA

The main thing I'm saying here is that a closer should be a guy that comes in and SLAMS the door shut. They don't screw around. Their job is to be dominant for one inning. Come in and face three batters. Mow them down. A closer shouldn't be lobbing the ball up there and allowing close to 2 base runners each time out.

By the way Arch, interesting that you would use the post-AS break argument and then rip Monroe. Usually that's the exact same argument Monroe apologists use.

Wow.

This is the same garbage people were spewing last year at the AS break. And what happened after all the misinformed fans who don't even watch baseball jumped the gun and wanted Jones gone? He pitched a pretty damn good 2nd half and converted every single save in the postseason, allowing only a run.

I guess it's an old saying "counting your eggs before they hatch".

How does last year apply to this year when he doesn't have Zumaya and Rodney throwing 100 MPH in front of him?

He has Seay and Gilli throwing 85-90 MPH to set him up and there is no change of pace when Jones comes in.

If we get them both back healthy and pitching well, there is no reason to panic. I am confident (enough) in Jones with the heat before him. But we can't count on them.

BTW, he also allowed 3 hits in one of those saves and 2 in another. So it wasn't like he was mowing people down anyway.

Take out his June 1st outing and Jones' numbers fall to 3.66/1.32. Still not great but a little more acceptable. He clearly didn't have his good stuff that game and was kind of left out to dry, throwing 46 pitches due to the rest of our pen being in shambles.

I don't think many people disagree that the closer role could definitely be upgraded, but it makes no sense to compare Todd to the other pitchers on the playoff contenders because those players are clearly not going to be available.

The question then becomes whether or not the closers that are available are a big enough upgrade over Jones to give up the top prospects that their teams are demanding. If the market dries up and DD is able to pull off a miracle deal giving up only a Jair Jurrgens or a Zack Miner, great, but do we really want to trade a legit prospect like a Gorkys Hernandez or a Cameron Maybin for a bionic-armed Eric Gagne?

Is a Chad Cordero even available for less than a Cameron Maybin (don't forget the king's ransom Washington looked for for Soriano, and when they couldn't get their price, they never backed down...)?

These are the questions at hand here, not whether TJ is comparable to a JJ Putz or a Jonathan Papelbon, which clearly he is not.

Like I said. My worry isn't Jones. It's Jones minus Joel and F Rod. Jones is clearly not as good without their contrast in styles.

Here's a list of legitimate potential trade targets for the Tigers:

Toronto Blue Jays:

Jeremy Accardo (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7534)and Casey Janssen (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7748).

Accardo has settled in nicely for BJ Ryan, picking up 14 Saves with a 2.72 era and 1.26 whip. He didn't allow his first run on the season until May 26 but since then has been sketchy at best, with 6.23/1.73 and 4.05/1.95 lines in June and July respectively.

Janssen has been great in a setup role for the Jays, with a 2.39/1.16 line. He's never closed before, though, so it's up in the air whether he could step right into that role for Detroit.

Both players are relatively young and cheap, which means Toronto may not want to trade them at all. At the least, this factor raises their trade value significantly.

Baltimore Orioles:

Chris Ray (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7577)

Coming off a phenomonal 2006, Ray has been shaky at times this year. He sports a 4.54 Era and like Jones he has blown four saves on the season. Once again, young and cheap.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

Al Reyes (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5329)

Reyes is having a great season for the D-Rays with a 3.97/1.00 line and 38 K's in 34 innings. Still, this is his first year as a closer at 38 and after being out of baseball entirely for a year. He recently went to the DL as well and who knows how long he can hold up.

Chicago White Sox:

Bobby Jenks (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7285)

With the White Sox out of it, they may consider trading Jenks but I doubt it, and especially doubt they'd keep him in the division if they did. He's still young and cheap and with the rest of their bullpen making ours look like the Nasty Boys, he's probably out of the question for Detroit.

Kansas City Royals:

Octavio Dotel (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6111)

Dotel has performed admirably in between DL stints, with a 3.15/1.40 line. I'm sure he's on the Tigers' list of targets.

Texas Rangers:

Eric Gagne (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6342) and Akinori Otsuka (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7252)

The Rangers have the true jewels available on the bullpen market in Gagne and Otsuka.

Gagne's injury troubles have been well documented and he has had a few stints on the DL this year as well. When healthy, he's looked like the Gagne of old, with a 1.23/.92 line, though his K numbers are a bit down.

Otsuka has looked great as well with a 2.51/1.08 line, though he's now on the DL with the dreaded "forearm tightness". The question remains on whether his numbers will fall off as the league sees him more like they did his second year in the NL.

Florida Marlins:

Kevin Gregg (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7206) and Henry Owens (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7809)

Gregg has been great for Florida with 20 saves and a 2.96/1.17 line. I'm sure he's on the Tigers list, though he has no previously established history as a closer prior to 2007.

Owens looked great early this year but he's been on the DL since June 9 and noone knows if he'll be able to come back strong.

Washington Nationals:

Chad Cordero (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7221)

Cordero has rebounded from early season struggles to settle in with a 2.74/1.30 line and 17 saves. He'll likely come with a very high price tag due to his name and established history as a top closer.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Jason Isringhausen (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5449)

Izzy has been the Cardinals closer for 6 years now and there's nothing to say he's on the market except that the Cards may wave the white flag now that Carpenter's shut down and they're so far back. he's putting in another stellar year with a 1.45/.94 line and a .162 BA Against.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Matt Capps (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7679)

Another in the young and cheap club, Capps is probably not available. He settled in as the Pirates closer in late May and has a 2.32/1.03 line. I imagine the Pirates will try and keep him around at least through his arbitration years but he merits mentioning since the team has no hope of contention and may jump at the right package if offered.

Houston Astros:

Brad Lidge (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6913)and Dan Wheeler (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6331)

Both have had more than their fair share of struggles in the closer role and there's little evidence that either would be an upgrade over Jones.

Colorado Rockies:

Brian Fuentes (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6735)

Fuentes is probably available after his recent demotion and stretch of four straight blown saves. He could be acquired in hopes that he can refind the form of the preceding 2 1/2 years as a Tiger.

San Francisco Giants:

Brad Hennessey (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7399/career;_ylt=AqukM2Cmos3DAwfMuSpwLNiFCLcF)

Hennessey is a closer pretty much in name only, with 6 career saves. He's been admirable with a 3.43/1.22 line but has no proven long term history of success. Probably a longshot.

Of that list, who is potentially available and also a clear upgrade with few question marks? Jason Isringhausen and Chad Cordero are the most obvious choices. Gagne and Otsuka are both very good but also have injury questions.

The problem with everyone else is that knowing Leyland, Jones would have to completely self destruct, probably over 4-5 games before he would be willing to replace the man. Leyland has enough respect for a veteran like Jones that he's not going to unseat him for an Al Reyes or a Casey Janssen unless it's absolutely necessary. IF he wouldn't do it with Zumaya last year I doubt he does it now unless it's a Cordero or an Isringhausen, a clearly superior option, coming in.

I missed David Weathers (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/4718)from the Reds, I'm sure he's available. He has 19 saves and a 3.28/1.09 line for a bad Reds team. He's never been the overpowering type but he at least bears mentioning.