Well folks, it's about to get really interesting here.

Rogers comes back Friday. Robertson is likely to come back soon afterward. While it's a bullpen thing, Zumaya sounds like he may be back shortly afterward as well (if you listen to him).

Let's focus on the starting rotation. Right now you have 7 starters and 5 spots. The schedule now shows Bonderman today, Rogers Friday (no game Thursday), Verlander Saturday and Miller Sunday. According to the team site, Leyland has yet to decide between Maroth and Durbin for the following start.

Interesting in my mind is the choice to start Miller Sunday. I had assumed he would be sent back down to make room for Rogers. Now I'm not sure who will be sent down instead. They can't keep 6 starters, so if Miller doesn't go now, would someone else? Or would they convert one to long relief? I think they've said a number of times they wouldn't convert Miller and they wanted to keep him as a starter in the organization. So would they convert Durnin or Maroth, or neither? Then do they send Miller down when Robertson comes back? Seems odd because, in my mind, the tired arm Robertson has makes him the ideal candidate to be converted. Move him to the role of the guy who takes over when someone else can't get out of the 5th or 6th or leaves even earlier. Spot starts for guys with a minor nagging injury.

Based on plans at the beginning of the season, Miller and Durbin would be out. I think we all agree that it's fine if Miller heads back down, because he simply isn't ready yet and we know he'll be here and be even better in a matter of time. As for Durbin, he's 29, I'm not sure if he has minor league options, and he's pitching much better than Maroth. They pitched the exact same number of innings, but Maroth has allowed 17 more hits, 6 more earned runs, 3 more homers and walked 3 more while striking out 13 fewer. Across every single category Durbin has been the better pitcher. Considerring how horrible Durbin was in his first 2 or 3 outings, the difference since has been even more glaring.

Sounds like Dombrowski needs to get on the horn with a team indesperate need of veteran pitching. Yeah, Maroth is a 4th or 5th starter, but he's still worth something. Perhaps there is an organization out there with a couple A or AA level prospects that aren't projected to be amazing, but could potentially at least make it to the majors. We need position players in our farm system. Maybe there's even a major league player out there, or someone we could move in a later trade. Maybe there's a guy out there making way too much money and a small market team is ready for some relief and a genuine good guy for the clubhouse and a pitcher that can go out every day and simply not self destruct. (ok, so Maroth can self-destruct)

Anyhow, there are multiple angles here but it all starts with our 5 man rotation. What do you think will happen, and what would you LIKE to see?

I wouldn't trade a starter for prospects right now if I am DD. I'd rather keep Robertson in the minors and shift either Durbin or Maroth to the bully as insurance.

What if Kenny goes down again? One of the others?

If he deals one of these starters, it needs to be a piece that helps them win THIS YEAR, IMO. (Um, closer?)

This is the same thing that has pissed me off about Dumars the past few years.

WIN NOW!!

I wouldn't trade a starter for prospects right now if I am DD. I'd rather keep Robertson in the minors and shift either Durbin or Maroth to the bully as insurance.

What if Kenny goes down again? One of the others?

If he deals one of these starters, it needs to be a piece that helps them win THIS YEAR, IMO. (Um, closer?)

This is the same thing that has pissed me off about Dumars the past few years.

WIN NOW!!

I see the three teams at the bottom of team pitching as the ones most likely to deal for Maroth.

Tampa Bay is the worst fit if we're trying to trade for a closer. While they have a trio of starters (everyone not named Shields or Kazmir) with ERA's between 7.53 and 8.13 and the need is there, they have Al Reyes closing for them. They wouldn't see a financial desire to move him, since he's only making $750,000. Plus, I'm not sure we would want him as a closer. He's a setup guy closing for the first time in his career at age 37. Need the reminder that he didn't pitch in the majors last year? He's doing a nice job so far, but I still don't think that's the right fit. If the Tigers deal Maroth to Tampa Bay (which I actually do think is a nice fit for both Maroth and the Devil Rays) it won't be for another pitcher.

Texas doesn't have a single starter with an ERA below 5.90, so statistically speaking Maroth and his 5.06 ERA would be their ACE. Of course pitching in Arlington inflates your ERA as the Rangers have found out several times. Nevertheless, Maroth could help and makes a nice $2.75 million. They have Gagne making $6 million and saving games in his old form for a team that doesn't win many games. They can probably get more for Gagne, but if the fire sale is coming we should be buying. I actually think Gagne could do far more for this team than Texiera could. I like this deal the most, even if we have to throw something else (depending on what "something" means) in.

St. Louis isn't going anywhere. They have a crapload of talent but injuries have been a massive plague to their team. Basically they only have 3 starting pitchers right now. Maroth would help them finish out the season with a better chance to compete and be a calming influence. Isringhausen is making a truckload of money, $8,75 million, and they can't be happy paying that to someone who, again, is saving the very few games they're winning.

Ok, I've looked into more because I REALLY want Gagne here. The Rangers entire starting rotation is right-handed. That makes Maroth even more valuable to them. Also, they would absolutely LOVE having Marcus Thames.

So the question in my mind is....what would I give up for Eric Gagne? I had a hard time answering that, so it changed to, what would I give up for Gagne and Texiera - in one of the biggest trades in recent history.

Here's what I came up with. I'm certain everyone will immediately say that Texas would never do that, and if they were strictly trying to please people looking for a big name, you're right. However, I think this deal would improve their organization a great deal.

They send: Gagne and Texiera

We send: Jones, Casey, Thames, Maroth, Virgil Vasquez, Brent Clevlen, and Roman Colon.

7 players for 2. Jones would become their closer and, in the 2nd year of a 2 year deal his ability isn't an issue. He's simply someone that can be in that role for them the remainder of the year. Casey would likely take over for Texiera. Thames would replace Frank Catalanotto and Maroth would plug into their starting rotation. That makes them a more competitive team right now. It also gives them 3 prospects of varying ability. 2 pitchers and an outfielder. They lack the real big name player, but get more out of the deal, in my opinion, than they might if they simply got one big name major league player or two big name prospects.

Feel free to criticize, but at least analyze the deal instead of a one line "never gonna happen" take.

Sign me up for that deal. They might want a little more but I'm no MLB trade expert.

Do you think they go for it if we include Jon Connolly? 23 year old lefty in the organization who looked like the next big thing a few years ago. He's still an above-average prospect, but he may have peaked. Either way, it's a lefty prospect with decent stuff.

My thought is, I'm willing to give up almost anyone in the organization other than Maybin or Miller for these two. We're deep right now, and if we can get these two without sacrificing other every day guys or core rotation guys, we're looking at 2 or 3 more years of possible World Series at least. I don't want to trade 15 players for these guys and kill the entire farm system, but we're not talking about that either.

Like Glenn said, win now. We can do that with this deal. Gagne is back in his old form, which means every lead is safe. Texiera, combined with our current top 5, is unbelievable. To think of one of those guys having to bat 6th is just sick. Oh yeah, that means 7-8-9 is Pudge, Monroe and Inge. I intentionally didn't deal both Maroth and Robertson - only one of them. When the postseason comes it will be a 4 man rotation of Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander and someone else. But we need one of them as insurance to help us get there.

Never heard of Connelly. I know jack shit about prospects until I see them here and get a first hand look at them. I hope we keep Cruz too. he looks like he has good stuff and could be a great setup man for Zumaya in a year or so.

Like you said, we'd still have an extra starter in case of injury or to rest guys an extra day down the stretch.

Take Clevelen out of that TEX deal and stick him into this deal of Durbin and Clevelen and prospects for Ken Griffey Jr.
Granderson
Polanco
Sheffield
Ordonez
Guillen
Teixera
Griffey Jr
Rodriguez
Inge

Of course, besides our farm system being fucked for 3 years, we win the next 3 world series.

The question is, when will Texas make a move? Their GM officially said yesterday he would move Texiera if the deal was compelling enough. I doubt he would consider my proposition compelling.

I can wait on Texiera until the deadline. But I want Gagne to stay in Detroit after the rest of the Rangers leave June 28.

Their owner also said he made a mistake signing Juan Gone the second time "after he was off steroids".

If you haven't seen that clip, it's pretty funny.

Take Clevelen out of that TEX deal and stick him into this deal of Durbin and Clevelen and prospects for Ken Griffey Jr.
Granderson
Polanco
Sheffield
Ordonez
Guillen
Teixera
Griffey Jr
Rodriguez
Inge

Of course, besides our farm system being fucked for 3 years, we win the next 3 world series.

Well, Cinci is the 2nd worst team in baseball right now and Griffey is having a solid season. I could certainly see them trying to trade him while they can still get something. That's a team that should have a fire sale for sure. They want to deal Dunn, they would be wise to deal Griffey, and they desperately need a new direction. Personally I think they could get something for Bronson Arroyo, even though he's playing like piss right now. They don't have many pieces worth anything, but they would be wise to move about 5 guys - Dunn, Griffey, Alex Gonzales, Arroyo and David Weathers. With what they get in return for those guys they should hope/plan to be competitive by 2010, sooner is unlikely.

That is one nasty lineup dbtm put up there.

If we could do that without giving up Miller, Maybin, Porcello, and a few others that we like, we would have an incredible team.

I just want to make sure that we get the best of both worlds. I don't want to be the White Sox. They have a ring but now they're a mess. Some would gladly do that for the ring. I think we can get the ring AND be a playoff team 8 of the next 10 years.
Here are some things we need to consider. Currently we have a number of guys that are free agents next year. There's never a sure thing with free agency. I know that Rogers and Jones are all free agents next year. I'm pretty sure Monroe, Infante and Robertson are as well. Pudge will but the club has an option on him. Looking down the road you've got guys like Sheff that will only be around a few years.

This club needs to keep the talent around the guys in their mid 20's. So that top 3 of Bonderman, Verlander and Miller needs more than just Curtis Granderson, Cameron Maybin, Omar Infante and Mike Rabelo. Zumaya, we all predict, is the future closer. Maybe a couple of the other arms in the organization will be ready to be the 4th and 5th starters. That's part of what's nice about Texiera. He's only 27 and he can be a steady prescence in the middle of that lineup of the future AND help win a ring now.

Realistically, this team from top to bottom, including GM and scouts, should have 3 rings by the time guys like Miller and Maybin retire.

By the way, to give more info on Jon Connolly, he was called up to Toldeo to pitch in a double header on May 17 and in a 7 inning game he pitched a CG 1 hitter to win 1-0. Not sure why he went back to Erie after that, but he's 3-3 there with a 4.29 ERA. In 2006 he spent time at 3 levels, dominating class A at Lakeland (3-0 in 3 starts allowing 4 ER over 21.2 INN), struggled most of the time at Erie, going 3-4 with a 6.14 ERA in 10 starts, and had one outing at Toledo last season, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings with a no decision. But to show how he has had better days, in September 2004 he was named as a Florida State League post-season All-Star.
We traded him to the Cubs in 2004 along with Eric Eckenstahler for Felix Sanchez. (by the way, Sanchez was decent at Lakeland in 2005 but hasn't pitched since - don't know why)
So Connolly tore his rotator cuff in 2005 and the Cubs were done with him. He pitched one game in independent ball in 2006 before we picked him back up.
But to further illustrate his early career, in 2003 he was 16-3 at West Michigan and was named the Tigers pitching prospect of the year. 4 years later, he's not producing the same stuff he did at Low A ball, and maybe the surgery changed him quite a bit, but I've got to think there's still something there.

You guys who want offense do realize we lead the league in runs scored?

I think RP is the only thing we really need. A nice upgrade on Monroe or Casey would be nice, but I wouldnt trade anything of significant value to do it.

Bonderman
Rogers
Verlander
Robertson
Durbin

This is my rotation if I am Leyland. You move Maroth because he is a lefty who can be a #4 or 5 for either a RP or for a couple mid level spects. If any of our starters go down....we can bring up Miller to throw in there. He is good enough to finish the season if we needed him too.

I would dump Casey, let Thames have 1B or try to trade Thames and Maroth for a LH bat and RP. I would not go after Dunn or Griffey. Dunn Ks too much and cannot play any position and Griffey is just dying to get injured again and where would you play him LF? I am sure he would enjoy that after already giving up CF this season.

BTW if anyone really wants an OF/1B who strikes out a lot and is injury prone....then lets go after Brad Wilkerson who gives you Dunn/Griffey all rolled up into one and bring Gagne in with him.

Maybe Maroth, Clevlen and Monroe for Wilkerson and Gagne.

A closer is what I want most, and most of you guys know how I feel about Jones, but when was the last time that Gagne was healthy (hell, I'd take "able to pitch") in September/October?

And Casey is the least of our problems right now.

Art nailed it. Bullpen. Bullpen. Bullpen.

Gagne is healthy. He was on the 15 day DL this season but all appears fine. They don't use him much because there really aren't that many games to save.
He's pitched 7 times in June, going an inning each time. He's struck out 9 in those 7 innings and hasn't allowed a run. For the season he has gone 18 innings, striking out 18 and allowing only a single run on a solo homer.
If I were the Rangers I would play it safe with him too. Here he would see much more work because we would have more games to save. (you do realize the entire Rangers team only has 13 saves - compared to Detroit with 21 in spite of the number blown)
So Detroit would offer many more save opportunities, unless they keep blowing other teams out. I don't care if once Zumaya comes back they work something out in which the two alternate save opportunities in order to keep both healthy. That's fine with me. But I know Gagne is the type of closer we want in October.
Remember the player Gagne is. Ever since 2002, the first full season he was converted to relief, he has pitched 280.1 innings and allowed 54 ER. That's an ERA of 1.734. In those same 280.1 innings he has struck out 408 batters. His health is a risk but he has shown that he's still the same pitcher. He's providing the exact same results in each outing that he did when he was converting 55 of 55 save opportunities. The trick is we just don't give him 55 chances. Let someone else close out the 3 run games. If they put the first two batters on or show any sign of difficulty, pull them and put Gagne in. If we only use him in 1 run situations, he'll respond very well and those games are money. Between Jones, Rodney, Seay and Grilli we have 7 blown saves. I honestly believe Gagne would have converted every single one of those and we would be 7 games better in the standings. Wouldn't you like a 7 game lead in the division?

I would take Gagne in a second if the price was right. His reward far outweighs his risk and besides there is not much else out there to be had.

I wasn't saying he's not healthy right now, it was just a comment on his recent history. If he's prone to breaking down at that time of year, then he's useless to us. It's a fair point to say that he'll be used less here, but it's hard to get excited about getting a frontline closer that you can't use or that you are afraid to use.

More and more, I'm pissed about the timing of Zumaya's injury. If he didn't get hurt, he could have taken over the closer's job by now, which is what is really ideal IMO. But now, I'll be worried about him re-injuring himself after a marathon session of "Stairway to Heaven" with the boys.

But this discussion keeps ending up in the same place. There aren't many options for acquiring closers out there.

I dont think Zum would have taken over the closer's role this year.

I think it would have been next year. Zoom makes Jones that much more effective when he comes in the 7th or 8th, because you go from his hard stuff to the light stuff that Jones is throwing in the 9th.

Jones is not great, but he is a servicable closer if need be. Our set men have been killing us this year.

I mentioned this in the Rome thread, but he had Lidge on today and the guy sounded great. He is a smart guy and I would love to have that guy here as well. Gagne or Lidge would be perfect if the price is right.

Oh yeah thanks for mentioning Lidge, but he will cost a lot more at this point than Gagne would, but he would be pretty sweet.

Both?

Heck, sell the dang farm. Get this roster:

C - Pudge
1B - Texiera
2B - Polanco
3B - Inge
SS - Guillen
OF - Ordonez, Granderson, Griffey
DH - Sheffield
Utility - Infante, Rabelo, Catalanotto, Wilkerson

SP - Bonderman, Rogers, Verlander, Durbin, Robertson
Bullpen - Zumaya, De La Cruz, Lidge, Ledezma, Seay, Byrdak
Closer - Gagne

Yes, I'm be ridiculous, but I like it. We would never get there without dealing the farm away though.

I only said Wilkerson because I coach his outstanding 7 year old nephew on the U8 tournament team here in Kentucky. He is as good as any 10 year old I have seen at 7.

CORNBREAD

One or two of Jordan Tata, Jair Jurrgens and Zach Minor will probably have to be sent out in any deal to get a good player back. Connolly has put up good numbers but I don't think most teams look at him as a serious prospect. I wouldn't mind seeing any of Gagne, Otsuka, Chad Cordero, or even Al Reyes come back for any of the above named guys. We need quality arms for the pen stat. We may find ourselves in a position where we have to start looking at other teams' setup guys rather than their closers if the market heats up too much.

Yeah, right now it's a buyers market still. That sucks for us, but we may not be able to afford to wait until teams start sliding and deciding to sell.

Ok, I've looked into more because I REALLY want Gagne here. The Rangers entire starting rotation is right-handed. That makes Maroth even more valuable to them. Also, they would absolutely LOVE having Marcus Thames.

So the question in my mind is....what would I give up for Eric Gagne? I had a hard time answering that, so it changed to, what would I give up for Gagne and Texiera - in one of the biggest trades in recent history.

Here's what I came up with. I'm certain everyone will immediately say that Texas would never do that, and if they were strictly trying to please people looking for a big name, you're right. However, I think this deal would improve their organization a great deal.

They send: Gagne and Texiera

We send: Jones, Casey, Thames, Maroth, Virgil Vasquez, Brent Clevlen, and Roman Colon.

7 players for 2. Jones would become their closer and, in the 2nd year of a 2 year deal his ability isn't an issue. He's simply someone that can be in that role for them the remainder of the year. Casey would likely take over for Texiera. Thames would replace Frank Catalanotto and Maroth would plug into their starting rotation. That makes them a more competitive team right now. It also gives them 3 prospects of varying ability. 2 pitchers and an outfielder. They lack the real big name player, but get more out of the deal, in my opinion, than they might if they simply got one big name major league player or two big name prospects.

Feel free to criticize, but at least analyze the deal instead of a one line "never gonna happen" take.

You are giving Texas four below average ML players (Jones, Casey, Maroth, Colon), one average ML player (Thames) and two average prospects (Clevlen, Vasquez) for a franchise player and a lights-out closer. Texeira alone will net more than that.

Even if we assume for a minute that all the players were average/above-average, Texas still wouldn't do that trade as more than half of those guys will be eligible for FA next year.

Would anyone trade Miner and Colon back for Farnsworth right now? I know I would.

Would anyone trade Miner and Colon back for Farnsworth right now? I know I would.

His 4.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP would fit in just fine around here.

I miss Farns.

So do the local bars and taverns, I'm sure.

relaunche (Orland Park, IL): As the Tigers shop for relievers and possibly a left handed bat, who is their main trade bait? Mike Maroth's name has been mentioned, but are the Tigers willing to part with young arms Eulogio De La Cruz, Jair Jurrjens, or Dallas Trahern? (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=317)
Rany Jazayerli: I think they have to - that bullpen is filthy, and by "filthy" I mean "dirty, grimy, and possibly infectious." They'll get Zumaya back eventually, which means they'll have Zumaya and a bunch of guys with ERAs over 5.

The short-term solution might be to put Andrew Miller in the pen, but eventually they're going to have to deal for a power arm, and they might as well make the move sooner rather than later. Fortunately, there are two obvious candidates - Octavio Dotel and Eric Gagne - who have reestablished themselves as healthy (mostly) and are on teams waving the white flag. Dombrowski's too smart to not make a move. (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=317)

Hate to do it, but we may have to think about trading Gorkys Hernandez too.

Nate just pitched 6 hitless innings in AA.

This isn't an original observation by any means, but one thing that really hurts us in the hunt for bullpen help is that with so many strong teams and the Wild Card, there aren't going to be too many teams "out of it" come the trade deadline.

Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa, KC, White Sox, Texas, Houston, Washington, San Fran, Pittsburgh, and Cincy may be the only teams we have to deal with.

That's still 1/3 of the league. That's sufficient to at least upgrade. We may not go from a crappy player to a lights out player, but if we go from below average to above average, that's still an improvement worth pursuing.

Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa, KC, White Sox, Texas, Houston, Washington, San Fran, Pittsburgh, and Cincy may be the only teams we have to deal with.


I'll take Joakim Soria from KC by all means.

I'll take Joakim Soria from KC by all means.

They'd probably rather trade Dotel though, as they have Soria on the cheap.