Vinny
02-09-2006, 01:33 PM
I found this article to be pretty good. Give it two more years and hopefully we'll start seeing these lists filled with Zumaya, Verlander and company:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=cnnsi-breakoutpitcher&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns
Breakout pitchers
As eagerly anticipated paired collocations go, pitchers and catchers is right up there with strawberries and cream, rock and roll and Turks and Caicos. The fun begins next week, to the percussive beat of catchers' mitts popping across Arizona and Florida. For every team, it is music that is filled with dreams. Every camp includes the hope that there is one pitcher, if not more, ready to have that breakout season.
Eventually, more hearts are broken than personal records. But the occasional breakout pitcher can define a season, if not a championship. Just ask the Chicago White Sox. Who saw Jon Garland and Jose Contreras coming? Neither pitcher ever had won more than 13 games in a major league season, and yet they combined to go 33-17 for the Sox.
Of the hundreds of pitchers in big league camps last spring, Garland, 26, and Contreras, 34, were two of only seven pitchers who won 15 games for the first time in their careers -- those who made good on the hope of a breakout season. The others were the Marlins' duo of Dontrelle Willis, 23, and Josh Beckett, 25; the Indians' Cliff Lee, 27, and Jake Westbrook, 28; and the Brewers' Chris Capuano, 27.
Throw out Contreras for a minute, because his success pitching in Cuba before leaving for the United States cannot be ignored. The other six breakout pitchers were all between 23 and 28 and pitched for teams that finished .500 or better. With those parameters in mind, who will be the breakout pitchers of 2006? Here they are, my top 10 pitchers likely to win 15 games for the first time.
Remember, this definition of breakout is based on wins -- you know, that old-fashioned stat that doesn't take into account such matters as run support, defense and peripheral numbers. But this is an exercise in trying to find young pitchers who can influence a pennant race, not discovering the next John Patterson, a breakout pitcher of another kind (3.13 ERA, but nine wins for the last-place Nationals in '05). So don't expect to find any Marlins here. (Ages are as of Opening Day.)
1. Rich Harden, 24, Athletics A non-throwing injury to a young pitcher can turn out to be a blessing, saving some wear and tear. Harden tore the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder last season and missed about 12 starts. He still won 10 games, limited hitters to a .201 average and exhibited a remarkable ability to maintain his premier power stuff deep into games.
2. Chien-Ming Wang, 26, Yankees The cool right-hander is a strike- and groundball-throwing machine, getting through his average inning as an AL rookie with only 13.7 pitches. Pitching for a team loaded with offense, Wang is a near lock to win 15 games -- but as long as he stays healthy, still a concern among the New York executives.
3. John Lackey, 27, Angels But for one more win, he was a breakout pitcher last season. With new confidence in his curveball, Lackey improved his strikeout rate by 31 percent and cut his home runs allowed from 22 to 13.
4. Brandon Webb, 27, Diamondbacks He has the best sinker in baseball. Period. Webb forced more than four groundballs for every fly ball last season while throwing 229 innings. He may need improvement against left-handers, but Webb should benefit by having a better team (and infield defense) behind him.
5. Felix Hernandez, 19, Mariners The only reason he's not higher on this list is because the Mariners plan to limit his innings, such as by using him as a fifth starter early in the season. Goodenesque breakout seasons straight out of the box are rare, but King Felix has the stuff and the poise to do it.
6. A.J. Burnett, 29, Blue Jays It's hard to believe that someone with his stuff hasn't won more than 12 games in a season. He's in a perfect spot to bust loose: reunited with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, slotted behind ace Roy Halladay and backed by a stable bullpen.
7. Jeremy Bonderman, 23, Tigers After wearing down in the second half last season (3-8, 5.61), Bonderman should be better fit for the long haul this time around. His innings progression is nothing to be alarmed about (162, 184, 189) and his improved control last season was encouraging for the Tigers.
8. Dan Haren, 25, Athletics It took only one week of camp last year for third baseman Eric Chavez to rave about Haren, obtained from St. Louis in the Mark Mulder trade. "He's the real deal,'' Chavez said. Haren did not disappoint. With 14 wins and three times as many strikeouts as walks last year, he showed he can be a formidable No. 2 behind Harden -- that is, if teammate Joe Blanton isn't that guy himself.
9. Gustavo Chacin, 25, Blue Jays Given his age, his 35 2/3 jump in innings pitched last season is borderline alarming as a predictor of a fallback season. But Chacin has been exceeding expectations everywhere he goes. His winning percentage as a professional is .626 (67-40). And if Burnett and Chacin both win 15 or more, you can put Toronto in the playoffs.
10. (tie): Zach Duke, 22, Pirates; Francisco Liriano, 22, Twins Age is the only issue here. Duke's jump of 44 1/3 innings last year is downright scary at his age. Liriano may begin the season out of the bullpen, just as the Twins once did with Johan Santana, to ease the burden on him.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=cnnsi-breakoutpitcher&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns
Breakout pitchers
As eagerly anticipated paired collocations go, pitchers and catchers is right up there with strawberries and cream, rock and roll and Turks and Caicos. The fun begins next week, to the percussive beat of catchers' mitts popping across Arizona and Florida. For every team, it is music that is filled with dreams. Every camp includes the hope that there is one pitcher, if not more, ready to have that breakout season.
Eventually, more hearts are broken than personal records. But the occasional breakout pitcher can define a season, if not a championship. Just ask the Chicago White Sox. Who saw Jon Garland and Jose Contreras coming? Neither pitcher ever had won more than 13 games in a major league season, and yet they combined to go 33-17 for the Sox.
Of the hundreds of pitchers in big league camps last spring, Garland, 26, and Contreras, 34, were two of only seven pitchers who won 15 games for the first time in their careers -- those who made good on the hope of a breakout season. The others were the Marlins' duo of Dontrelle Willis, 23, and Josh Beckett, 25; the Indians' Cliff Lee, 27, and Jake Westbrook, 28; and the Brewers' Chris Capuano, 27.
Throw out Contreras for a minute, because his success pitching in Cuba before leaving for the United States cannot be ignored. The other six breakout pitchers were all between 23 and 28 and pitched for teams that finished .500 or better. With those parameters in mind, who will be the breakout pitchers of 2006? Here they are, my top 10 pitchers likely to win 15 games for the first time.
Remember, this definition of breakout is based on wins -- you know, that old-fashioned stat that doesn't take into account such matters as run support, defense and peripheral numbers. But this is an exercise in trying to find young pitchers who can influence a pennant race, not discovering the next John Patterson, a breakout pitcher of another kind (3.13 ERA, but nine wins for the last-place Nationals in '05). So don't expect to find any Marlins here. (Ages are as of Opening Day.)
1. Rich Harden, 24, Athletics A non-throwing injury to a young pitcher can turn out to be a blessing, saving some wear and tear. Harden tore the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder last season and missed about 12 starts. He still won 10 games, limited hitters to a .201 average and exhibited a remarkable ability to maintain his premier power stuff deep into games.
2. Chien-Ming Wang, 26, Yankees The cool right-hander is a strike- and groundball-throwing machine, getting through his average inning as an AL rookie with only 13.7 pitches. Pitching for a team loaded with offense, Wang is a near lock to win 15 games -- but as long as he stays healthy, still a concern among the New York executives.
3. John Lackey, 27, Angels But for one more win, he was a breakout pitcher last season. With new confidence in his curveball, Lackey improved his strikeout rate by 31 percent and cut his home runs allowed from 22 to 13.
4. Brandon Webb, 27, Diamondbacks He has the best sinker in baseball. Period. Webb forced more than four groundballs for every fly ball last season while throwing 229 innings. He may need improvement against left-handers, but Webb should benefit by having a better team (and infield defense) behind him.
5. Felix Hernandez, 19, Mariners The only reason he's not higher on this list is because the Mariners plan to limit his innings, such as by using him as a fifth starter early in the season. Goodenesque breakout seasons straight out of the box are rare, but King Felix has the stuff and the poise to do it.
6. A.J. Burnett, 29, Blue Jays It's hard to believe that someone with his stuff hasn't won more than 12 games in a season. He's in a perfect spot to bust loose: reunited with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, slotted behind ace Roy Halladay and backed by a stable bullpen.
7. Jeremy Bonderman, 23, Tigers After wearing down in the second half last season (3-8, 5.61), Bonderman should be better fit for the long haul this time around. His innings progression is nothing to be alarmed about (162, 184, 189) and his improved control last season was encouraging for the Tigers.
8. Dan Haren, 25, Athletics It took only one week of camp last year for third baseman Eric Chavez to rave about Haren, obtained from St. Louis in the Mark Mulder trade. "He's the real deal,'' Chavez said. Haren did not disappoint. With 14 wins and three times as many strikeouts as walks last year, he showed he can be a formidable No. 2 behind Harden -- that is, if teammate Joe Blanton isn't that guy himself.
9. Gustavo Chacin, 25, Blue Jays Given his age, his 35 2/3 jump in innings pitched last season is borderline alarming as a predictor of a fallback season. But Chacin has been exceeding expectations everywhere he goes. His winning percentage as a professional is .626 (67-40). And if Burnett and Chacin both win 15 or more, you can put Toronto in the playoffs.
10. (tie): Zach Duke, 22, Pirates; Francisco Liriano, 22, Twins Age is the only issue here. Duke's jump of 44 1/3 innings last year is downright scary at his age. Liriano may begin the season out of the bullpen, just as the Twins once did with Johan Santana, to ease the burden on him.