Let me know if you think this is flawed math, but I think I've figured out what's the key to a JM (or BO) win in Michigan.

* Wayne County is a lock for Obama

* Oakland County is a lock for McCain

* Macomb County is a toss up (Voted Gore in '00, and Bush in '04)

Now break it down within Macomb County...

anything south of Hall Rd (except Sterling Heights) has/will vote Democrat

anything north of Hall Rd has/will vote Republican

the only city that has voted differently in Macomb County the last two elections is Sterling Heights (which is where I reside)

http://www.2004vote.mcntv.com/general/president-ct.html

SH is the 4th largest city in the state of MI

Grand Rapids (3rd largest) is a lock for McCain (Bible Belt Republicans), while DET & Warren are locks for Obama...

It's quite possible Sterling Heights can decide the state's outcome.

Sterling Hgts was also the first stop on JM/SP's campaign trail the day after the RNC ended too, which could suggest even more evidence that Sterling Hgts is that crucial.

But where the flaw could be is that Bush won Macomb County (http://www.2004vote.mcntv.com/general/president.html)as a whole in 2004, yet Michigans ev's went to Kerry...

But the population of Oakland County & Macomb County has grown sharply within the last 4 yrs, while Wayne's has surely subsided.

Who knows...but just an interesting nugget I wanted to throw at you guys.

There are a couple flaws with your reasoning:

Oakland County certainly isn't a lock for McCain. It narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. I'd bet on it going for Obama in 2008.

The actual city of Grand Rapids is Democratic -- voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry by a larger amount in 2004. It's the rest of Kent County that keeps it Republican. The Kalamazoo and Traverse City areas leaning more Democratic out on the west side as well.

But, I agree that if Obama keeps Macomb close and wins Oakland, he wins Michigan. Kerry ran a fucktacular campaign in Michigan. It took months after Kerry won the nomination for him to designate a Michigan campaign chair.

The rough party breakdown for Michigan is 43% D, 37% R, and 20% I.

I'm sure someone can find some charts but I think Michigan is the only state that hasn't added jobs in the last so and so many years. Louisiana didn't for a while but that was cuz of Katrina.

WTF is wrong with Michigan? maybe for another thread.

I guess I'm posting this cuz if either candidate could come up with some way to get Michigan some jobs, that candidate would win hands down.

* Macomb County is a toss up (Voted Gore in '00, and Bush in '04)

Now break it down within Macomb County...

Not that this really has anything to do with the presidential erection, but since we're talking about Macomb county...

According to TMZ, Macomb County commissioner Carrey Torrice(D) is the hottest politician (http://photos.tmz.com/galleries/carey_torrice#26908). And she's a lion's fan. (http://www.stripperstoogo.com/ppiclarge5.htm)

I saw that yesterday. She has those pics on her personal website!

I saw those as well. I'm sure she's taken very seriously in the political world.

The local politics in Macomb shouldn't be taken very seriously. I've heard as much about antics at Warren and Sterling Heights City Council over the years as I have about Detroit City Council.

I'm sure someone can find some charts but I think Michigan is the only state that hasn't added jobs in the last so and so many years. Louisiana didn't for a while but that was cuz of Katrina.

WTF is wrong with Michigan? maybe for another thread.

I guess I'm posting this cuz if either candidate could come up with some way to get Michigan some jobs, that candidate would win hands down.
The issues with Michigan are that it's SO strongly tied to the auto industry, probably more tied to one industry than any other populous state. Efforts to diversify in areas where we've had real opportunities (e.g. life sciences) have been stymied by regulation (e.g. stem cell research ban). Even so, what's hitting Michigan is industry-specific. Factor out the Michigan auto industry and Michigan's doing "ok" -- not "great", but "ok".

I agree with Granholm that attracting well-educated folks is the key to a prosperous economy, but I disagree with the notion that we should do so especially by growing well-educated kids here. Unlike plants (excluding Triffids), Michigan's young have something called "feet" and will move to where the jobs are. We need to attract business that the well-educated folks from all over the country would want to work at. The "green energy" thing might do it, but we'd rather piss it away on tax credits for educating kids so they can be well-geared to move to another state.

Political commercials in SE Michigan this week seem to be divided between Obama, McCain, and this one, falsely claiming that a ballot proposal that permits stem cell research would raise taxes (those "taxes" being investments in growing business in the state, mind you):

http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/michigan/index.ssf?/base/politics-2/1222196992235870.xml&storylist=michigannews

But, I agree that if Obama keeps Macomb close and wins Oakland, he wins Michigan. Kerry ran a fucktacular campaign in Michigan and still managed to win despite himself. It took months after Kerry won the nomination for him to designate a Michigan campaign chair.
Fixed.

I really don't think Michigan is all that close right now at all, actually. As of Monday, even Rasmussen (which tends to keep things closer than other polls) has Sen. Obama with a 7-point lead in MI, which is decisive by Presidential standards. That's as of Monday, and let's face it, this week has not been good to Sen. McCain, so the numbers are at least as bad as that as of today for him.

Sen. McCain is going to need to campaign a lot in Michigan, no matter what, and that's going to be a poison pill for him. He's got to do it to shore up his support, but his presence is just going to remind people here about the GOP's role in the economic and housing crises. It might increase his numbers a little, but it will also solidify the indies who have decided not to vote for him.

I'm saying it now, you can quote me on this: despite all the hype and narratives, this election is not going to be that close. Certainly not on the electoral map. The number of bad calculations made this week alone is going to force the McCain campaign to work overtime.

The Letterman effect is gonna be huge, I think. Not because everyone likes Letterman's show, or because everyone agrees with Letterman's half-serious whining about being disrespected. But he's pointing out a very serious flaw in the McCain campaign - if your main guy is going to be as as old and mercurial as he seems to be, you need a 2nd stringer who can carry the ball every now and again. Unfortunately, the McCain campaign is working their asses off just trying to find a way to expose the 2nd stringer to the media without her getting eaten alive.

The foreign cars thing is toxic. If McCain ever gets close in Michigan, they'll dig up the $2.5 million in foreign automotive lobbyists working for McCain. That appears to have been the turning point where it stopped being close.

Klan antics in Michigan -- good grief!

http://www.mediamouse.org/features/092608ku_kl.php

In many cases, Michigan isn't a battleground. It's gerrymandered so it's hard for incumbents to be kicked out to the curb even when they're ineffective. Case in point -- Thaddeus McCotter. He likes to talk smack on the financial crisis and other things (and this is easily the best speech I've ever heard him give -- most of what he says is boring and all-wrong):

7qA3cpYiz5k
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qA3cpYiz5k

But his inability to walk the walk in the period leading up to it is a joke:

http://michiganmessenger.com/4872/mccotter-fiddled-while-wall-street-burned

McCotter is the only member of the state congressional delegation who sits on a committee that deals directly with the financial, mortgage, housing and insurance markets.

A Michigan Messenger investigation has found that, in two years of membership on the House Financial Services Committee, McCotter failed to attend a single committee or subcommittee hearing on topics directly related to the current financial crisis.

As a member of the two most important subcommittees — the Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises and the Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity — McCotter paid little attention as the financial hurricane gathered and grew.

I strongly suspect he survives whoever's running against him, because I don't know who that is. But it should be more of a battleground than it is.

[QUOTE=Uncle Mxy]

I agree with Granholm that attracting well-educated folks is the key to a prosperous economy, but I disagree with the notion that we should do so especially by growing well-educated kids here. Unlike plants (excluding Triffids), Michigan's young have something called "feet" and will move to where the jobs are. We need to attract business that the well-educated folks from all over the country would want to work at. The "green energy" thing might do it, but we'd rather piss it away on tax credits for educating kids so they can be well-geared to move to another state.


[\QUOTE]


I agree with you to a point. I graduated from u-m and I think that only 20% of the people I went to school with stayed in mich. I think there will be always be some high tech around ann arbor and near detroit for the auto industry. AFICT, most recruiting of high tech jobs into mich. comes from the auto industry, most of which being foreign rather than grads from other states. I think that it is not a coincidence that high tech jobs tend to be tied to pleasant environments or cool cities to live by: silicon valley and san fran, No. VA, Boston, research triangle in NC, NY. Michigan/Detroit is never going to be like those places. AA has some charm, but it is what it is: a college town with long sunless winters. If I were MI (as much as a person can be a state), I would devote more resources to cleaning up Detroit (albeit a risky proposition with the establishment politics) and to agriculture. Detroit really is a classic metropolis, but it has been abandoned due to racial politics played by the city itself and the suburbs. However, I don't think the state will recover while detroit decays. detroit is still likely to be the face of MI that outsiders think of. I have been to many fucked up cities, but detroit is a complete anomaly on a national scale.

As the Chinese and Indian middle classes grow, they will consume more meat. In connection with irregular weather from global warming, agriculture exports will become increasingly impt. for the global economy and I think MI has underutilized natural agriculture resources and underemployed unskilled labor. I would create agriculture and agecon depts at michigan and try to attract global leaders in those fields. right now, most of that research occurs at msu, but they don't have as much cache to draw the best of the best.

just my $0.02

I love Michigan. I wish there was something that could be done to get that state's job growth going again.

Well if DeVos was governor...

Well if DeVos was governor...
The shithole sinks further, but everybody would get free napkins with an amway label.

The shithole sinks further, but everybody would get free napkins with an amway label.

Ahem. We do business as Quixtar in North America.

Obama says McCain out of touch on jobs

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
15 minutes ago

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Thursday that his rival John McCain is out of touch with the economic struggles of Americans and doesn't understand that there's nothing more fundamental than a job.

Obama hammered McCain's economic record during a rally in Michigan, a state struggling with the country's highest unemployment rate. Obama said the government's jobs report coming out Friday is expected to show a ninth straight month of decline.

"Nine straight months of job loss," Obama said. "Yet, just the other week, John McCain said the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Well, I don't know what yardstick Sen. McCain uses, but where I come from, there's nothing more fundamental than a job."

The country's financial woes appear to be benefiting Obama's campaign. Increasing numbers of voters say Obama is better suited to lead through the crisis, giving him a 48-41 percent lead over McCain in an Associated Press-GfK out this week.

The race's changing dynamics also appear to be giving Obama's supporters confidence. He drew a large crowd in downtown Grand Rapids that extended beyond the Secret Service checkpoints, despite temperatures in the 40s and the fact that the city is located in the heart of GOP territory.

"Sen. McCain just doesn't get it," Obama said. "Well, Michigan, you and I do get it. That's why we're here today. We know the next four years don't have to look like the last eight."

At one point, Obama said, "If I'm president," and the crowd cut him off with shouts of "When! When!"

Obama said, "I'm superstitious, folks," and continued talking about what he would do "if" he wins the election.

Obama has been concentrating on winning Michigan, a state the Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 but that McCain has made a target this year. There are signs that Obama is pulling ahead here, and local news reported Thursday morning that McCain canceled a trip to the state next week without explanation.

Obama's visit to Grand Rapids and a rally planned later in the day at Michigan State University marked his second visit to the state in a week, while his wife, Michelle, campaigned Thursday across the state in Saginaw and Clinton Township.

Obama was also sending high-profile advocates to campaign in the state on his behalf, including primary rival Hillary Rodham Clinton last weekend and performers Jay-Z and Bruce Springsteen in the coming days.

What was the crowd size in GR today?

25K

McCain giving up on Michigan
by The Associated Press
Thursday October 02, 2008, 3:52 PM

WASHINGTON — In a major concession, Republican John McCain has abandoned efforts to win Michigan, a Democratic-leaning battleground state the GOP presidential candidate had hoped to capture.

Republican officials with knowledge of the strategy said the GOP nominee is removing staff, curtailing advertising and canceling visits to the Midwestern state, which offers 17 electoral votes. Resources will be sent to Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and other competitive states.

News of McCain's decision came as Democrat Barack Obama prepared to take the stage for a rally at Michigan State University, his third event in the state in five days. If he knew about McCain's plans, Obama didn't mention it and continued to criticize his rival's economic policies as just a continuation of the Bush administration philosophy.

"My opponents' philosophy isn't just wrongheaded, it reveals out how out of touch he really is," Obama told more than 15,000 who gathered on a chilly fall afternoon.

Word of the strategy change also came as attention was focused on the vice presidential debate between Republican Sarah Palin and Democrat Joe Biden.


Democrat John Kerry won Michigan in 2004, but McCain had identified it early on as a potential target, particularly in light of Obama's troubles with white working-class voters. But the terrain in Michigan was never friendly. It has a Democratic governor, and Republican strategists said the state's poor economy and McCain's association with the unpopular President Bush proved too much for the GOP nominee to overcome.

Those problems, they said, became more acute for McCain in Michigan following the Wall Street collapse.

That doesn't bode well for a Republican trying maneuver in an increasingly difficult political environment.

The move came as McCain struggles to gain traction with the financial crisis consuming the presidential campaign and commanding voters' attention. Polls nationally and in key states show the Democratic nominee with a lead, one that some McCain backers fear and Obama supporters hope may hold.

One GOP official said McCain's campaign made the decision to pull out of Michigan on Wednesday night, and conveyed the orders to staffers midday Thursday.

Earlier, a local news station reported that McCain canceled a trip to the state next week without explanation. Then, Democrats and Republicans who track the campaign's advertising said the Republican did not buy airtime for Michigan for next week, though he did so for every other state where he's been on the air. And, there was no indication that the Republican National Committee would continue running ads there either.

It's costly to run advertising in the state; McCain's campaign was spending $1 million a week in the state. But polls showed a backward slide for McCain in the economically ailing state where he is closely aligned with Bush.

One month before the election, the Electoral College map continues to shrink as both sides adjust their strategies daily as they seek the best possible state-by-state path to the 270 votes needed for victory.

Earlier, Obama abandoned efforts in Alaska, Georgia and North Dakota after boasting about running a 50-state campaign, though he succeeded in making traditional Republican strongholds Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia competitive. Both sides are battling it out in those states where public polls show Obama ahead or tied.

A McCain aide said the campaign is opening up a front in Maine, which Kerry won four years ago and which offers four electoral votes. His campaign checked advertising rates in media markets there this week.

YEE HAW!!!

This will probably change Ledezma's vote. How can he give up on this state?!?!?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE MRP Communications
Thursday, October 2, 2008 (517) 487-5413
media@migop.org (media@migop.org)



MI GOP Chairman Anuzis Comments on McCain Campaign Developments


Anuzis says campaign decisions can shift suddenly




LANSING - Michigan Republican Party (MRP) Chairman Saulius “Saul” Anuzis issued the following statement in regards to recent developments in the McCain campaign in Michigan:

“I have always said that the winds that drive presidential campaign decisions can shift and shift suddenly. I have no doubt the campaign will be back. This has occurred previously, in some degree or another, in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns, and when polls tighten, advertising can quickly be added and people moved back to Michigan. That’s why while we’ve been breaking our backs for the McCain campaign, we’ve also remained focused on our Michigan priorities – re-electing Chief Justice Cliff Taylor, Congressmen Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg, and electing Republicans to the state house, county, and local offices.

The infrastructure we built isn’t really affected by decisions like this that come so late in the game. Also, knowing the fickle nature of national campaigns, the Michigan Republican Party had the foresight to open several volunteer centers around the state with the sole mission of focusing on our Michigan candidates.”



###


Paid for by the Michigan Republican Party with regulated funds.





Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee


www.migop.org (http://www.migop.org/)

^That guy needs to admit that someone just sunk his battleship.

^ Naw. His Detroyer, though, is definitely in trouble.

In Florida, GOP campaign officials huddled in a secret meeting to discuss the sudden drop for McCain in that state. Polls give Obama a narrow lead there after trailing McCain for weeks.

At WZZM-TV in Walker, national advertising salesman Tim Siegel said he had not yet received any cancellation from the campaign. Siegel said the campaign has ads booked through Sunday, but not beyond.

"Campaigns do things at the last minute," he said.

Campaign co-chair Yob said the campaign would soldier on with a volunteer army still committed to taking Michigan.

"We are going to just keep getting the message out, that Obama is an inexperienced fraud," he said.



Bitter much?

What was the crowd size in GR today?

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y37/ninarai/Obamacalder.jpg

That's an awesome pic, IMO.

I think I'm going to regret missing that today for a long time.

Where is that? I've been to GR a few times and don't remember seeing that sculpture at all.

It's the trademark of the city.

It's affectionately called "The Calder" around here, but it's got a proper name that I'm not going to look up right now. The artist was named Calder. It sits in Calder Plaza, right in the heart of downtown.

Never heard of it. I only went downtown once (was visiting my sister at GSVU Allendale otherwise). We went skating at some park downtown.

In related news FoxNews says that Michigan is STILL a battleground state and that MCCain's retreat is a maverick move to lull Obama to sleep, then rip out his jugular vein.

Anuzis is absolutely right. A lot can change in a month. The problem is that McCain has way too much surface area to defend to undermine most of the Kerry states. Obama's ahead by 5+ points in all the Kerry states except New Hampshire (still too close to call). Add Iowa and New Mexico which Obama has by comfy margins. That's 260. ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, or North Carolina gives Obama the Presidency. McCain has to take all 7. That'll take HUGE money. Obama has the $$$. McCain may not.

Where's Grand Rapids?

Ed Rollins (a republican strategist on CNN) couldn't understand this move. They were talking about how McCain's team had a new list of battleground states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and Indiana) and that Bush carried every single state last time. They said his margin for error is paper thin with that strategy. Rollins was talking about how they raised a bunch of money and there should be no reason to pull out of places like Michigan.

Ed Rollins (a republican strategist on CNN) couldn't understand this move. They were talking about how McCain's team had a new list of battleground states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and Indiana) and that Bush carried every single state last time. They said his margin for error is paper thin with that strategy. Rollins was talking about how they raised a bunch of money and there should be no reason to pull out of places like Michigan.
Bush didn't carry Wisconsin. Obama's been polling consistently ahead -- the last poll I see from there is being up by 9 points with Strategic Vision (which is a Republican-leaning polling outfit like Rasmussen).

McCain doesn't have a ton of money relative to Obama, and he doesn't have as big a platform to make campaign-influencing movies as a President. It'll be most interesting to see the campaign financing numbers for September.

McCain is a Walmart Wolverine.

Bush didn't carry Wisconsin. Obama's been polling consistently ahead -- the last poll I see from there is being up by 9 points with Strategic Vision (which is a Republican-leaning polling outfit like Rasmussen).

McCain doesn't have a ton of money relative to Obama, and he doesn't have as big a platform to make campaign-influencing movies as a President. It'll be most interesting to see the campaign financing numbers for September.
I must have gotten the list wrong from memory. But his point was valid (that all states McCain has labeled as battleground states were Bush wins). So like you said he can't lose ANY of them.

No, you got the list right. Some pundits were just as confused as I was when they were talking Wisconsin. AFAICT, Obama's now built up 5+ point leads in every Kerry state (latest NH poll from Rasmussen was +10 for Obama, so my sense is that NH isn't lose anymore) so all the remaining battlegrounds are Bush country.

Just getting a feel for people around me I think Colorado will go blue. There are definitely a good amount of McCain supporters around here, but they all seem to be holding their breath. The democrats seem to be a lot more excited and it's spreading to independents too. That's just my personal feeling, not based on any concrete numbers.

Oh oh -- Sarah disagrees with the boss:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14253.html


Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Friday that she disagrees with the John McCain campaign’s decision to pull staff and resources out of Michigan.

“I want to get back to Michigan, and I want to try,” Palin said in an interview on Fox News. “Todd and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan. We'd be so happy to speak to the people there in Michigan who are hurting.”

The McCain campaign confirmed yesterday that it will be moving resources out of Michigan to more favorable terrain in Pennsylvania and Maine.

The Alaska governor first heard the news this morning and fired off a quick e-mail to campaign officials expressing her displeasure with the move.

“Oh c’mon, do we have to?” Palin said she wrote.

I really hope they pour more money into Michigan. You go, girl!

Now dog gonit there you go again.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/10/04/losing_hope_in_michigan/


The Grand Rapids Press this week reported that compared with 2004, when Bush outraised Kerry in Kent County by four-and-a-half times, McCain has outraised Obama by only double.

^Religion is #1 in GR

McCain can't match Bush in that regard, so he didn't get their cash.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081003/COL10/81003096&imw=Y


A day after Sen. John McCain's campaign announced that it would move its resources and staff from Michigan to more favorable battlegrounds in Pennsylvania and Maine, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign announced that it would open a new office in Grand Blanc. That makes more than 50 Obama campaign offices across Michigan.

^Religion is #1 in GR

McCain can't match Bush in that regard, so he didn't get their cash.

Somebody on here told me GR was a Democratic city.

Was it the county in which GR is in that normally votes Republican?

I knew that GR is part of the "Bible Belt" or w/e, but it's not like they've ever caused MI to be a red state or anything anyway...

Just padding the popular vote stats for BO, I guess.

“Oh c’mon, do we have to?” Palin said she wrote.

Seriously?

Grand Rapids city itself is moderately Democratic -- 55% for Kerry in 2004. Most of the blacks in the area live in the city. The surrounding area, Kent County, is roughly 65-70% Republican, which is how the county as a whole voted 59% Bush in 2004.

It turns out that McCain has a funny idea of "pull out" from Michigan. This past week, he's spent as much in Michigan as he has in Florida.

On an unrelated note: http://www.joeknollenbergdelivers.com/

Michigan Reps and Dems have competiting petitions:

http://www.freep.com/article/20081007/NEWS15/81007032

http://michigandems.com/petition.php

If I believe Rasmussen, it looks like a blowout of 2006 proportions:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

http://64.203.97.34/images/DD_CMC_logo.gif

Dear friends:

Another Michigan autumn is here.

It's not just the seasons that are transitioning, we're about to make a real change in this country, on November 4.

Democrats this year nominated the most liberal U.S. Senator to top their ticket in a generation. Most of my Democrat friends are shocked to find themselves in the same Party as such a radical partisan from the Chicago political machine. This is Barack Obama.

Republicans this year nominated a maverick U.S. Senator not beholden to special interests and committed to real-world solution. Many of my GOP friends remind me how independent he is! This is a welcome change. This is John McCain.

Running against a smooth-talking professional politician is something else I know about first-hand.

Senator Obama has a very happy-sounding message. In these tough times, that's good politics. But talk of hope and change while making us feel good, doesn't accomplish any real change. Change doesn't put gas in the car. Change doesn't pay the mortgage. Change doesn't put food on the table. As Rudy Giuliani said at the GOP convention, "Change is not a destination, just as hope is not a strategy."

We do need change. But change that means something and gets something done.

Our problems are too big for empty slogans.

As for Betsy and me, we are supporting John McCain and Sarah Palin (whom we love) in their campaign to change America. We agree with them, we must shake up Washington. Special interests cannot be allowed to set policy and dictate our nation's future.

We believe that Senator McCain's unwavering commitment to expand parental choice and control in schools is vital. In too many cities, we're losing another generation of children. America's kids should not have their futures traded for the political influence of education's union bosses.

If you agree, please join the fight.

The radical left and their media allies are doing everything they can to take over…but you can help stop them. Make phone calls, stuff envelopes, host a house party, walk in your neighborhood or just talk to your friends about why you are voting for who you are voting for.

We can make the CHANGE WE NEED happen,


http://www.devosforgovernor.com/media/photo/DD_signature.gif


Dick DeVos

P.S. Despite the recent decision by the McCain campaign, Betsy and I are going to continue the battle here in Michigan. We can still win, we are giving it our all and trust you will join us!

Most of my Democrat friends are shocked
Concern troll.

Exactly, lol.

I stopped reading there.

Milliken unendorses McCain, along with other state Republicans:

http://www.mlive.com/grpress/news/index.ssf/2008/10/former_governor_milliken_backs.html

^thanks for the link

I found the comments that followed the article to be very interesting, especially from the Grand Rapids Press readership.

http://www.freep.com/article/20081013/NEWS15/81013077

Federal judge orders 1,438 names restored to Michigan voter rolls
(but ~200000 were still whacked)

New poll out today from Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.com has Obama ahead 54-38 in Michigan.

McCain was a fool for broadcasting his pullout...

This state could've been won.

No worries, Mitt will turn us red in '12.

You are like... the fanboy of politics.

McCain was a fool for broadcasting his pullout...

This state could've been won.



Well, either that or poll numbers like that are the reason he pulled out.

I would probably tend to go with that instead of what you said.

Well, either that or poll numbers like that are the reason he pulled out.

I would probably tend to go with that instead of what you said.


The polls got out of hand AFTER he pulled out...

the margins weren't that big when he was still here...

Before McCain left, the recent polls showed double-digit leads for Obama. The turning point seems to have been:

1) ads associating McCain with foreign car ownership (which is a political killer in Michigan) and
2) the Michigan-centric "fundamentals of our economy are strong" ads (from before the national meltdown, before it was a national ad)

Before those ads, it was neck and neck. After those ads, nothing McCain was doing was moving the dial his way.

All I know is, the way Granholm has completely failed at her job, I don't see why this state falls in love with Democratic leaders.

Look at the Republican leaders.

Engler did big tax cuts that didn't help prosperity, and the state of Michigan was left with a structural deficit. His legacy wasn't going to lead to a Republican win in 2002. In 2006, they run DeVos, whose plan amounted to "buy the election, then tell them what I will really cut afterwards". Uhh... yeah, Dick. Granholm at least did most of what she said she'd do in her first term. Whether you think it's right or not is another matter, and I have my doubts in some cases. But I have a hard time blaming her (or our state government in general) for Michigan automaker woes. Most of their issues are at a national/international level.

Remember, you're the one who watns to vote no on 2 even though we'd get more business investment out of it.

All I know is, the way Granholm has completely failed at her job, I don't see why this state falls in love with Democratic leaders.

And the way Bush completely failed at his job, I don't see how there are any Republicans left.

From what I remember, McCain ditched Michigan upon hearing of a poll with a double digit lead for Obama.

And the way Bush completely failed at his job, I don't see how there are any Republicans left.


Put it this way MoTown, Bush did a better job than Kerry would've done.

Who has more effect on an individual state's economy? Granholm or Bush?

I would guess Granholm.

I'm not a Kerry backer at all, but I don't see how you can say that. I hated Kerry as a Democratic pick, but I've never felt a feeling of hopelessness like the day Bush was re-elected.

Put it this way MoTown, Bush did a better job than Kerry would've done.

Who has more effect on an individual state's economy? Granholm or Bush?

I would guess Granholm.
Absolutely not. The governor has relatively little impact. Remember, most of a state's budget comes from the federal government. Michigan's historically a donor state in that regard. The federal government taxes us much more than they hand back to the state government. So, we already start out in a hole relative to a lot of other states. We don't have the huge federally-funded research labs or military complexes.

Beyond that, the state of Michigan's budget has some logic bugs. We're deeply tied to a cyclical industry with the automakers, but don't have the ability to collect/save/invest when there's a boom, or borrow when there's a bust. The state itself don't have an ownership stake in the automakers -- more like the other way around. Factor out the automakers domestic woes, and Michigan has been on par with the rest of the country.

Hey Mxy can be Fredo's professor, because I worry that he isn't getting shit from his current ones right now. :(

Half of Obama's team in Michigan is moving to North Carolina, Indiana, and other states to help efforts there.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/more_on_obamas_michigan_redepl.php

I was just at an event where Dick DeVos gave a speech. (douchebag)

He had to cut it short because he's "hosting President Bush for tea this afternoon".

Amway tea?

Also, close this thread. No more battle ground.

It's not a presidential battleground, but that could change. There's definitely a lot of local races that are battles -- Knollenberg vs. Peters for U.S. rep, a ton of state representative races with no incumbents because of term limits, etc.

I simply cannot believe Knollenberg is in jeopardy this year.

Amway tea?

Also, close this thread. No more battle ground.
Thats not the WTFDetroit way....Instead change its title to LOL@Michigan as a battleground State. :)

I simply cannot believe Knollenberg is in jeopardy this year.
I dunno.

In 2007, Knollenberg only won by 6% against Nancy Skinner, an unknown. She didn't have anything beyond road signs and a radio ad, and her biggest political accomplishment was coming in 6th place to Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate primary before moving back to Michigan. The district has gotten a little more Democratic since then, and Peters is a better known quantity. I'm seeing as many Peters TV ads and signs as Knollenberg, though Knollenberg is leading big-time in the direct mail department. Kevorkian's also on the ballot, and it's hard to say who he takes more votes away from, but he could be a big spoiler.

i made it back to MI for a wedding and stayed with my uncle in farmington hills. i was surprised at all the vacancies on orchard lake rd. IMO, i don't see why knollenberg wouldn't be vulnerable. The dems want to hand a bunch of cash to the automakers. what else does oakland county have besides engineers and auto company big wigs in the south and factory/service workers in the north? i suppose there are a handful of tech companies but they probably get a bunch of work from the auto makers anyways? MI is in big trouble regardless of who wins the election. The only hope is a major breakthrough in alt fuel technology that is not easily copied by foreign companies.

Selzer is a notably-accurate Midwest pollster and has Obama +14 in Michigan:

http://www.freep.com/article/20081102/NEWS15/811020485/1215

http://i37.tinypic.com/27zep1w.jpg

BTW, Obama is the first Dem to win Kent County (GR) since 1964 (LBJ).

^Nice. I live in a highly republican county (just north of Colorado Springs which is full of religious nuts). Bush carried %66 of the vote here, but McCain only got %58 yesterday. I'm hoping the trend continues.

JM not the right man for the Religious folk. They saw his move to them as political.

The Dems retained Levin, ousted one of the odious state Supreme Court reps, gained a couple seats in the U.S. house, and a bunch of open state rep seats.

Oh, and there was a Presidential election...

Selzer is a notably-accurate Midwest pollster and has Obama +14 in Michigan:

http://www.freep.com/article/20081102/NEWS15/811020485/1215
I screwed this up -- Selzer had this +16 Obama. (I misread 53-37 as 53-39.)

Obama won by +16.