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View Full Version : Playoff Odds and Analysis from Charley Rosen



Big Swami
03-19-2008, 10:00 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7909434/Pistons-are-a-force-when-Rasheed's-clicking#


LAKERS
Plus: Kobe. Pau Gasol's increasing comfort in the triangle. The deepest bench in the league. Phil Jackson's ability to motivate and make adjustments.
Minus: The questionable status of Andrew Bynum, if and when he returns. Even with a full recovery by Bynum, the Lakers still lack a physical presence in the lane.
Odds: 2-1

HORNETS
Plus: The brilliance of Chris Paul. The steady versatility of David West.
Minus: Peja's history of choking in the playoffs. Overall lack of championship-caliber experience.
Odds: 10-1

SUNS
Plus: Steve Nash's creativity and clutch play. Amare Stoudemire's supreme athleticism. Shaq's mass and will power.
Minus: Shaq's historic inability to stay out of foul trouble, maintain his chops, stay healthy and make free throws. An inferior defense. Difficulty playing grind-it-out, playoff-style basketball.
Odds: 5-1

MAVERICKS
Plus: A high-powered offense and underrated defense. Jason Kidd's court vision, passing and heart.
Minus: Kidd's heart isn't big enough to pump life into the flat-line performances in the clutch of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse.
Odds: 5-1

JAZZ
Plus: An elite point guard. A powerhouse power forward. A precision offense. An overwhelming record on their home court.
Minus: Now that Kyle Korver has been revealed as an unreliable shooter at a heightened level of competition, there's an erratic corps of perimeter shooters. No defensive stoppers except for the overly finesse-oriented Andrei Kirilenko. An abysmal record on the road.
Odds: 10-1

ROCKETS
Plus: T-Mac's asserting himself. Rafer Alston's license to shoot. Improved defense without the immobile Yao clogging the middle. Shane Battier's having a career season under the radar.
Minus: No post-up presence. Insufficient power. T-Mac's durability.
Odds: 20-1

WARRIORS
Plus: A dynamic bunch of scorers. In Baron Davis, an accomplished go-to guy. Team speed and quickness.
Minus: Davis' inability to focus. Poor rebounding. Gimmicky defense. Poor shot selection.
Odds: 50-1

NUGGETS
Plus: The potential for A.I. and Carmelo combining for 60-plus points. Great speed and quickness. J.R. Smith's streaky shooting. Eduardo Najera's toughness. Marcus Camby's high-jumping elasticity.
Minus: K-Mart's chokeability quotient. Feeble defense. Overall lack of maturity.
Odds: 100-1

CELTICS
Plus: A trio of superstars. KG's inspirational value. A hounding defense. The blossoming of Kendrick Perkins as a rebounder.
Minus: Lack of dependable bench scoring. Sam Cassell's impotent defense and dead legs.
Odds: Even money

PISTONS
Plus: Championship-hardened vets. The best backcourt duo in the league. Sheed's versatility.
Minus: Erratic contributions from the bench. Rasheed's periodic lack of focus. A season-long inability to sustain sufficient intensity to close out close games.
Odds: 3-1

MAGIC
Plus: Power in the paint. Hedo Turkoglu's career year.
Minus: Subpar point-guard play. Rashard Lewis' unreliability. Dwight Howard's panicked passes when double-teamed.
Odds: 75-1

CAVS
Plus: LeBron. LeBron. LeBron.
Minus: Big Z's fragility. Poorly designed offense. LeBron's erratic perimeter shooting.
Odds: 25-1

Timone
03-19-2008, 10:04 AM
Man, what's up with these comments about the Pistons being so dead on as of late?

Zekyl
03-19-2008, 10:10 AM
Its like people are actually starting to pay attention or something, SDB

Hermy
03-19-2008, 10:32 AM
Is this the Glen version? Spurs?

Timone
03-19-2008, 10:35 AM
I like Rosen's columns.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 10:36 AM
I enjoy Rosen, too.

I usually can find a word or two that I have to look up on dictionary.com, I bet he finds those at thesaurus.com

Timone
03-19-2008, 10:38 AM
bukdow taught him everything he knows.

Big Swami
03-19-2008, 01:21 PM
Is this the Glen version? Spurs?
Whoops, here it is:

SPURS
Plus: Experience. Confidence. Versatility. Three championship-tested stars. Pop's game plan.
Minus: A season-long propensity for making mistakes in the clutch. Except for Manu Ginobili, unreliable scoring off the bench. A growing awareness around the league that Tim Duncan's jump-shooting could be a fatal flaw.
Odds: 8-5

WTFchris
03-19-2008, 01:34 PM
These odds make no sense to me at all. I understand the best teams should have better odds, but why doesn't this take conference opponents into play? You can't tell me LA has a better chance of winning it than Detroit. LA is going to have to face 3 teams that are much better than Detroit's.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 01:48 PM
What are these odds for, winning it all?

It says "playoff odds"

Glenn
03-19-2008, 01:49 PM
There's no way the Spurs should be 8 to 5 right now to win the championship, and that is not my anti-Spur bias speaking.

Zekyl
03-19-2008, 01:52 PM
Well that's stupid then. We already have teams with playoff locks. I'm pretty sure he meant chances to either win or make the finals.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 01:53 PM
Bodog has the Spurs at 6-1 right now.

8 to 5 is the same thing as 1.6 to 1.

Thank my calculator for that.

Big Swami
03-19-2008, 01:55 PM
SPURS
Plus: I guess they have a few good players, and a decent coach. And Tony Parker's wife is sort of hot, kind of.
Minus: They're fucking done. DONE, you hear me?
Odds: Zero.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 01:56 PM
Thank you.

Zekyl
03-19-2008, 01:59 PM
Yeah, 8 to 5 is very much too high for them, without a doubt. They should in no way have better odds than the Pistons. Look at the competition in the Western Conference. If the Spurs and Pistons made the finals, the Pistons would have had one demanding series, the Spurs probably would have had 3. Not taking into account Flip Saunders errors (there will be a few, its just a matter of when they happen and if they can be overcome), we should be more fresh come Finals time, which will give us a definite advantage.

WTFchris
03-19-2008, 01:59 PM
I took this as NBA title odds as well (sense there is no way Boston, Detroit or Orlando misses the playoffs. The title is confusing.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 01:59 PM
I now consider Rosen a hack.

I say this without reading the original article to see if there was an explanation, but that's on Rosen, not me.

Glenn
03-19-2008, 02:28 PM
I broke down and looked it up.

Straight Shooting
As the regular season rounds the clubhouse turn and heads into the home stretch, let's take a look at what to expect in the playoffs. Included in this cursory prognosis are the positives and negatives of contending teams, as well as the championship odds.

:dismissed:

Zekyl
03-19-2008, 02:51 PM
Now by Championship odds, does he mean making it to the 'ship or winning it?
Now I'm just being an ass.

Uncle Mxy
03-19-2008, 04:13 PM
The Spurs have earned the benefit of the doubt, but not THAT much benefit.
It's an even year... that's all that needs to be said.