WTFchris
03-04-2008, 11:04 AM
Which Dontrelle Willis will we see this season?
By Will Harris
ESPN.com
Dontrelle Willis (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=7133%27%29) won 22 games in 2005, posting a 2.63 ERA in the process. Only Chris Carpenter (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5771%27%29)'s magical season in St. Louis kept the Marlins' left-hander from a Cy Young Award trophy. The next two campaigns, however, were a true collapse. Willis' ERA spiked by more than a whole run each year, and last season he added a 1.60 WHIP to his deteriorating stat line. Now that Willis is in Detroit, what can his owners expect?
To those who vote with their draft dollars, it seems that expectations are low. Willis has been a pariah in 2008 drafts and mocks; his average draft position has slumped to the 17th round thus far in ESPN leagues. Could he really be washed up at the tender age of 26? What are the roots of his struggles, and are they correctable? More immediately, how should he be valued for 2008?
The first step toward the answers is a diagnosis of the problems, and a look into Willis' numbers shows that it is his strengths, not his weaknesses, that have betrayed him for the past two seasons.
Willis was an eighth-round selection of the Chicago Cubs (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=chn%27%29) in the 2000 draft. He pitched two years for the Cubs, in rookie ball and low Class A. Traded to the Marlins along with Julian Tavarez (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5103%27%29) for Matt Clement (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=6099%27%29) and Antonio Alfonseca (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5835%27%29) during the 2002 preseason, Willis moved up within Class A in 2002, then pitched 36 innings at Double-A in 2003 before being called up to the Marlins for good. He then earned 2003 National League Rookie of the Year honors with a 3.30 ERA in 160 innings.
Willis displayed a mediocre strikeout rate throughout his minor league career, thriving on pinpoint control and a very low home run rate. He possessed excellent command of his low-90s fastball, hard-breaking slider and changeup. Willis idolized Vida Blue as a youth, and his high leg kick is reminiscent of Blue's unusual delivery. The deception afforded by his odd mechanics undoubtedly contributed to his Rookie of the Year campaign, as Willis never again approached his 2003 strikeout rate of eight batters per nine innings. Willis has produced the most consistent strikeout rates of any major league pitcher during the past four seasons, clocking in at somewhere between 6.35 and 6.47 strikeouts per nine innings in each of those seasons. His other indicators, however, have mirrored his ERA and WHIP in their sharp decline since 2005. Most notable are his recent struggles with the control that once made him so effective. Willis walked only 1.71 batters per nine innings in his minor league career, and after two years of improvement, his 2005 figure in that category was only 2.09. The next two seasons saw his walk rates rise to previously unoccupied territory, 3.34 in 2006 and 3.81 last season.
Also in decay is a once-stellar home run rate. In the minor leagues, this trait was a cornerstone of Willis' success. In more than 300 career minor league frames, he allowed a mere 0.23 home runs per nine innings. That figure has risen from 0.42 in 2005 to 0.83 in 2006 to 1.27 last year. Willis always has been a ground ball pitcher, though not an extreme one. Interestingly, his ground ball rate -- like his capacity for strikeouts -- has remained constant during the past four years despite a climbing home run rate. That suggests that an unfortunate rise in home runs per fly balls is the cause of his 2007 long ball troubles. Even so, the three-year trend is troubling.
The inflated home run rate is a lesser concern than the ballooning number of free passes, but both indicate that Willis is losing ground with the skills most responsible for his impressive past resume. This is distressing, but it must be remembered that he formerly was known as a pitcher with both excellent control and the ability to keep the ball in the park. At age 26, a possible recovery cannot be discounted despite the unquestionably negative trends. Optimists will point to the opportunity to unveil his unusual delivery to unsuspecting A.L. hitters as a reason to believe in an immediate rebound.
Another factor might be at work, however. In the three seasons Willis spent entirely in the minors, he pitched 28, 93 and 157 innings. Those are sharp increases, but even more troubling is the fact that he then tossed at least 196 innings for five straight seasons upon entering the bigs. He peaked at 236 innings in 2005, and it might not be a coincidence that his two-year collapse was immediately preceded by the zenith of his workload. Overuse seems a likely factor in what appears to be a career that is burning out early.
The bottom line is this: Watch his control, and act accordingly. Whether correctable or not, and whether precipitated by workload issues or not, Willis' problem is unmistakably his soaring walk rate. He has displayed outstanding control in the past, so it's true that if the mileage on his arm is not the problem, he's young enough to possibly regain his lost value. His walk rate, however, will be the indicator in any case.
Willis needs to get his walks under three per nine innings again, and until he provides evidence that he's able to do that he is a bad bet to succeed. Avoid Willis in 2008 drafts unless he slips to the endgame. Track his progress closely, however, because a rebound not accompanied by improved control is probably a temporary one, whereas a walk rate that mirrors his pre-2006 levels is likely the harbinger of a real recovery, whether initially accompanied by an improvement in his surface stats or not.
By Will Harris
ESPN.com
Dontrelle Willis (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=7133%27%29) won 22 games in 2005, posting a 2.63 ERA in the process. Only Chris Carpenter (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5771%27%29)'s magical season in St. Louis kept the Marlins' left-hander from a Cy Young Award trophy. The next two campaigns, however, were a true collapse. Willis' ERA spiked by more than a whole run each year, and last season he added a 1.60 WHIP to his deteriorating stat line. Now that Willis is in Detroit, what can his owners expect?
To those who vote with their draft dollars, it seems that expectations are low. Willis has been a pariah in 2008 drafts and mocks; his average draft position has slumped to the 17th round thus far in ESPN leagues. Could he really be washed up at the tender age of 26? What are the roots of his struggles, and are they correctable? More immediately, how should he be valued for 2008?
The first step toward the answers is a diagnosis of the problems, and a look into Willis' numbers shows that it is his strengths, not his weaknesses, that have betrayed him for the past two seasons.
Willis was an eighth-round selection of the Chicago Cubs (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/clubhouse?team=chn%27%29) in the 2000 draft. He pitched two years for the Cubs, in rookie ball and low Class A. Traded to the Marlins along with Julian Tavarez (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5103%27%29) for Matt Clement (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=6099%27%29) and Antonio Alfonseca (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:newWin%28%27http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/players/fantasy?statsId=5835%27%29) during the 2002 preseason, Willis moved up within Class A in 2002, then pitched 36 innings at Double-A in 2003 before being called up to the Marlins for good. He then earned 2003 National League Rookie of the Year honors with a 3.30 ERA in 160 innings.
Willis displayed a mediocre strikeout rate throughout his minor league career, thriving on pinpoint control and a very low home run rate. He possessed excellent command of his low-90s fastball, hard-breaking slider and changeup. Willis idolized Vida Blue as a youth, and his high leg kick is reminiscent of Blue's unusual delivery. The deception afforded by his odd mechanics undoubtedly contributed to his Rookie of the Year campaign, as Willis never again approached his 2003 strikeout rate of eight batters per nine innings. Willis has produced the most consistent strikeout rates of any major league pitcher during the past four seasons, clocking in at somewhere between 6.35 and 6.47 strikeouts per nine innings in each of those seasons. His other indicators, however, have mirrored his ERA and WHIP in their sharp decline since 2005. Most notable are his recent struggles with the control that once made him so effective. Willis walked only 1.71 batters per nine innings in his minor league career, and after two years of improvement, his 2005 figure in that category was only 2.09. The next two seasons saw his walk rates rise to previously unoccupied territory, 3.34 in 2006 and 3.81 last season.
Also in decay is a once-stellar home run rate. In the minor leagues, this trait was a cornerstone of Willis' success. In more than 300 career minor league frames, he allowed a mere 0.23 home runs per nine innings. That figure has risen from 0.42 in 2005 to 0.83 in 2006 to 1.27 last year. Willis always has been a ground ball pitcher, though not an extreme one. Interestingly, his ground ball rate -- like his capacity for strikeouts -- has remained constant during the past four years despite a climbing home run rate. That suggests that an unfortunate rise in home runs per fly balls is the cause of his 2007 long ball troubles. Even so, the three-year trend is troubling.
The inflated home run rate is a lesser concern than the ballooning number of free passes, but both indicate that Willis is losing ground with the skills most responsible for his impressive past resume. This is distressing, but it must be remembered that he formerly was known as a pitcher with both excellent control and the ability to keep the ball in the park. At age 26, a possible recovery cannot be discounted despite the unquestionably negative trends. Optimists will point to the opportunity to unveil his unusual delivery to unsuspecting A.L. hitters as a reason to believe in an immediate rebound.
Another factor might be at work, however. In the three seasons Willis spent entirely in the minors, he pitched 28, 93 and 157 innings. Those are sharp increases, but even more troubling is the fact that he then tossed at least 196 innings for five straight seasons upon entering the bigs. He peaked at 236 innings in 2005, and it might not be a coincidence that his two-year collapse was immediately preceded by the zenith of his workload. Overuse seems a likely factor in what appears to be a career that is burning out early.
The bottom line is this: Watch his control, and act accordingly. Whether correctable or not, and whether precipitated by workload issues or not, Willis' problem is unmistakably his soaring walk rate. He has displayed outstanding control in the past, so it's true that if the mileage on his arm is not the problem, he's young enough to possibly regain his lost value. His walk rate, however, will be the indicator in any case.
Willis needs to get his walks under three per nine innings again, and until he provides evidence that he's able to do that he is a bad bet to succeed. Avoid Willis in 2008 drafts unless he slips to the endgame. Track his progress closely, however, because a rebound not accompanied by improved control is probably a temporary one, whereas a walk rate that mirrors his pre-2006 levels is likely the harbinger of a real recovery, whether initially accompanied by an improvement in his surface stats or not.