It is pretty funny. A lot of people I know are convinced Muslims have taken (or are taking) over.

IMO, y'all need to stop playing the victim card for BO and deal with the fact that if he wins or loses its on his merits.

Pointing out Obama's need to be exceptionally hard-lined on Israel (because he's black) or hardline about "I am a Christian" (because of his name/heritage) isn't exactly the victim card. In fact, while I understand their origin and necessity, those couple aspects of Obama are among the things I've like least about him personally. Of course, I doubt a professed "I don't give a fuck about religion" will make it in my lifetime.

Pointing out Obama's need to be exceptionally hard-lined on Israel (because he's black) or hardline about "I am a Christian" (because of his name/heritage) isn't exactly the victim card. In fact, while I understand their origin and necessity, those couple aspects of Obama are among the things I've like least about him personally. Of course, I doubt a professed "I don't give a fuck about religion" will make it in my lifetime.

I'm not following...who said that?

I did. But maybe I'm misunderstanding something.

Tahoe, what constitutes "playing the victim card for BO"?

I assumed you were talking about defensiveness on religious attacks.

There's still something like 10-15% of people surveyed who think he's a Muslim, and who react extremely negatively to this owing to decades of demonization over Iran and Iraq, more recent 9/11 stuff, the fact that a growing number of Muslims don't care much for the west, etc. It's morbidly amusing seeing doofuses like Michael, Matthew, etc. bitch about Barack the Muslim when they have <gasp> Jewish first names.

Wondering if this whole Wright fiasco wasn't really as much of a fiasco as-so-much as a careful and deliberate strategy to beat the American public over the head with Obama's faith... without actually beating them over the head about it.

The connection between politicians and religious nutjobs is far from new (Bush and the fanatical Religious Right, for example), so having some crazy Pastor in your corner is almost passe, if not predictable. Far better than voters questioning whether or not you're a Muslim. THAT would be the kiss of death.

Psycho reverends... big deal. Secretly Muslim... wave goodbye to the Presidency.

Michelle Obama was ranting about the Bush administration in a speech at the infamous church once:

Why'd he cut folks off medicaid?
Why'd he let New Orleans drown?
Why'd he do nothing about Jena?
Why'd he put us in Iraq for no reason?

and that's getting transmogrified into:

Whitie cut folks off medicaid?
Whitie let New Orleans drown?
Whitie do nothing about Jena?
Whitie put us in Iraq for no reason?

by the race baiters. Gotta love it.

I'm just hoping he comes up with the 20-30 supers before tomorrow that he needs to close the deal with the states instead of supers.

Obama picked up two more Michigan superdelegates today, giving him a total of 7. Hillary also has 7.

If you give Obama a 9-7 delegate win in Montana and 8-7 in SD, he needs 29 supers. I'm not sure if CNN's 2072 reflects the two you mentioned though. That's a lot of them to pick up in one day (to make the primaries put him over the top).

That doesn't look likely (at least from the Senate supers):

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Most of the 17 Democratic senators who are uncommitted superdelegates will endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president this week, sources told CNN Monday.
The lawmakers will wait until after the South Dakota and Montana primaries Tuesday before announcing their support for Obama, two sources familiar with discussions between Obama supporters and these senators told CNN's Gloria Borger.
Obama supporters have been "pressing" for these superdelegates to endorse early this week, but according to one source, "the senators don't want to pound Hillary Clinton, and there is a sense she should be given a grace period."
A series of meetings on the topic have been facilitated at different times by Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. Durbin and Daschle are Obama supporters, while Harkin is uncommitted.
Obama (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/barack.obama.html) is now 46 delegates short of the 2,118 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Clinton needs 202. There are 31 pledged delegates up for grabs in the Tuesday contests, and 202 superdelegates have yet to commit to either candidate.
Obama has the support of 331 superdelegates to Clinton's 292.
Superdelegates are party elected officials and activists who are free to vote for either candidate.
Following Sunday's Puerto Rico primary, Obama picked up two more superdelegate nods, and Clinton received one.


Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will remain uncommitted until Clinton (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/hillary.clinton.html) officially drops out of the race, sources told CNN's Candy Crowley, but that isn't stopping the two party heavyweights from using their clout to bring the primary battle to a hasty end.
Pelosi told the San Francisco Chronicle last week that she is prepared to intervene if the presidential race does not resolve itself by the end of June.
"I will step in," Pelosi told the paper in an interview. "Because we cannot take this fight to the convention. ... It must be over before then."
A senior Democratic aide in Congress also told CNN on Friday that Pelosi is already calling uncommitted superdelegates and pressuring them to back either Obama or Clinton by the end of this week. Pelosi is collaborating with Reid on the effort.
In an interview with a San Francisco radio station last week, Reid said he spoke to Pelosi and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. "We all are going to urge our folks next week to make a decision very quickly," Reid said.
Throughout the process, Dean has been pressing for superdelegates to make up their minds after this week's contests.
Facing an insurmountable lead among pledged delegates, Clinton is now counting on the remaining superdelegates to push her over the finish line, a proposition her campaign admits is a tall order.
"Is the road steeper than it was several weeks ago?," Clinton adviser Harold Ickes remarked on CNN's "Late Edition" on Sunday. "The answer is yes."
Still, Clinton told reporters after her primary win in Puerto Rico on Sunday that given her support among key demographics in swing states, she has proved she will be a stronger nominee than Obama against John McCain (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.html).


"I think it's only now that we're finishing these contests that people are going to actually reflect," Clinton said on her campaign plane Sunday, referring to the uncommitted superdelegates. "Who's our stronger candidate? And I believe I am, and I'm going to make that case, and at some point it will either be accepted or it won't be, but I feel strongly about making it."
Clinton argued that even superdelegates who have committed to Obama are free to "change their minds" -- a suggestion the Obama campaign declined to comment on.
Despite the odds against her, Clinton continues to pick up support even as Obama grows his lead among superdelegates.

I think she concedes tomorrow.

Seems likes it close...Concedes...suspends campaign, something along those lines.

But these are the Clintons...I'll believe it when I see it.

I think she concedes tomorrow.
I don't. I think she waits until Wednesday so she can get one last speach in there (without consessions). She'll just talk about how hard she's faught for everyone, etc. The only way I see her conceding tonight is if he gets enough supers to push him over the top at the primaries. I think she uses tonight to trumpet her accomplishments in hopes of her next possible job.

12-15 Supers have went to BO today. If the report is true that I just heard, she also says she's open to being BO's VP.

^that's why I thought she would concede today.

Apparently, she wants to thank her supporters tonight, first, so it looks like it might be tomorrow.

The AP says he has clinched:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_el_pr/primary_rdp

And he's got Jimmy Carter's endorsement too (he's a super).

The AP says he has clinched:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080603/ap_on_el_pr/primary_rdp

And he's got Jimmy Carter's endorsement too (he's a super).

Well, he had already secured the majority of the pledged delegates. He must have secured the overall majority now.

I think that may be premature. It depends on the exact number he has now. He would have to secure 2113 to have the majority. CNN has him at 2088 right now on their site. They had him at 2076 yesterday, so even with the 18 supers that doesn't add up to 2113. MSNBC has him at 2090.5 on their site.

BTW, Kwame has endorsed Obama now.

I think they are counting the assumed delegates that he'll pick up tonight.

Most of that I've heard is he'll get 16-17 out of the primaries tonight. So that would put him at 2106.5, plus MSNBC said there were a couple more that said they'd pledge after the polls tonight (Carter being in that group). 2108.5 doesn't get him to the nomination, nor does it secure the majority. I'm betting he will get there tonight (more supers throughout the night), but who knows whether it will be before his speach.

FoxNews just did a breaking news story that BO clinches the Democratic Nomination, citing the AP.

^^lol.

Close this thread.

Ah, we can at least see how it wraps up here. Although I suppose it could finish in the veeps thread.

^^lol.

glad I could bring some humor into your life.

No concession speech by Hillary tonight.

Nope.

Well Hillary won 8 of the last 14 primaries and ended up winning the popular vote over BO.

But BO won and my hat is off to him to overcome the status quo or whatever you call it, in Hillary. I think everyone thought she'd win the Dem nomination. Good job BO.

Well Hillary ended up winning the popular vote over BO.



liar.

I don't want to make excuses re the popular vote, but I presume more... let's say... "casual" Obama supporters in the final states would have came out if the race wasn't declared as over by the media so long ago. Whereas more "casual" Hillary supporters had to come out if Hillary wanted any chance. I don't know, just something I thought... could be wrong and all that.

She didn't?

liar.

Could you explain your below the belt comment, por favor.

After JMs speech, then Hills speech then BO just knocks those 2 out of the park as Orators go anyway. Enthusiasm, etc. He's reall a phenominal speaker.

BO mentioning Hillary directly, not surprised.

^Hes done that the last couple times. He and his campaign knew it was over but I think wanted to let her bow out on her own. He's been giving her a chance at a graceful exit, but she won't take it.

Well Hillary won 8 of the last 14 primaries and ended up winning the popular vote over BO.

But BO won and my hat is off to him to overcome the status quo or whatever you call it, in Hillary. I think everyone thought she'd win the Dem nomination. Good job BO.

She didn't win the popular vote, since she didn't include the caucus states.

Also, population-heavy Cali and NY skewed the numbers, which is why delegates count and not popular vote.

She didn't win the popular vote, since she didn't include the caucus states.

Also, population-heavy Cali and NY skewed the numbers, which is why delegates count and not popular vote.

Not the way I saw it added up. But it did include Fl and MI popular vote totals. So that may sway it.

I just like the way the Dems talk about Popular vote totals for years with Al Gore but when it isn't their guy that won it, it means nothing. :)

BO just said what you said DrRay...95% of the time. So there must be some equation where that is true. The first I heard it like that was tonight.

Considering MI and FL were planned not to be counted, I accept this difference in popular vote where Obama's name was not even on the ballot in MI and did not campaign in FL where Hillary did.

The Gore fiasco was much different in a multitude of ways...

This suprised me...

Rupert Murdoch Heaps Praise on Barack Obama (http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/may/30/rupertmurdoch.wallstreetjournal)

The only way Hillary wins the popular vote is to count Michigan, where his name wasn't on the ballot. Take Michigan out and Obama wins. It's that simple. Florida shouldn't count, since neither campaigned there. The only reason Obama didn't fight too hard on either of those was because he won already, so why bother.

There's a lot wrong with counting the popular vote even for the states that both of them campaigned in. There's caucuses. There's different standards on WHO can vote -- open vs. closed primaries and all shades in between (including the primacaucuses for Dems in Texas and Reps in West Virginia).

Ultimately, it was delegates they were fighting for, and that had a lot about how and where they would campaign. There were lots of population centers neither candidate chose to run up the vote in, because spending the money and time to rack up tens of thousands of people in those areas wouldn't have changed the delegate math any. The difference between their winning most districts' popular vote 70-30 and 80-20 turns out to be zero, delegate-wise. It's often more worthwhile to go to that district where you're at 35% and see if you can make it 38%, because that'll make a real difference.

With the general election campaign Obama's been running for the past month, he's had bigger fish to fry and hasn't done the 50-state surgery he has in the past. Hillary outspent him in a lot of the remaining states, and it shows. This just means she'll have less money to make noise now that this phase is over.

Could you explain your below the belt comment, por favor.
See above.

I don't. I think she waits until Wednesday so she can get one last speach in there (without consessions). She'll just talk about how hard she's faught for everyone, etc. I think she uses tonight to trumpet her accomplishments in hopes of her next possible job.
Told you I did:


NEW YORK (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton said Tuesday night she would make no immediate decision on her next steps after winning the South Dakota primary but watching rival Sen. Barack Obama pick up enough delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
Clinton congratulated "Obama and his supporters on the extraordinary race they have run."
"Our party and our democracy are stronger and more vibrant as a result," she said.
But she stopped short of conceding the race to Obama. Instead, her speech Tuesday night sounded more like the one she had made for several weeks, touting the number of votes that she had won, and how she had won in battleground states that Democrats would have to win to have a chance against Republicans.
"Even when the pundits and naysayers proclaimed week after week that this campaign was over, you kept on voting," she said, adding that she won most of the swing states that would be needed to push a Democratic (http://topics.cnn.com/topics/U_S_Democratic_Party_Politics) ticket to the 270 electoral votes to win the presidential election

The only way Hillary wins the popular vote is to count Michigan, where his name wasn't on the ballot. Take Michigan out and Obama wins. It's that simple. Florida shouldn't count, since neither campaigned there. The only reason Obama didn't fight too hard on either of those was because he won already, so why bother.

There's a lot wrong with counting the popular vote even for the states that both of them campaigned in. There's caucuses. There's different standards on WHO can vote -- open vs. closed primaries and all shades in between (including the primacaucuses for Dems in Texas and Reps in West Virginia).


On CNN last night they did 3 senarios and Obama had the popular vote in 1 and she had it in 2 others. Unfortunately I turned to that just as they were finishing the discussion so I'm not sure what numbers were included with each. Before the MI and FL inclusions though I posted something about it in this thread. At that time she could only win the popular vote with MI and FL, AND without including caucuses. I'm assuming in their math last night he still won the popular vote with caucuses (which doesn't even include the ones that don't track votes).

What a fucking brilliant speech by Obama.

I watched McCain too, but I'll keep my thoughts on that one to myself.

On CNN last night they did 3 senarios and Obama had the popular vote in 1 and she had it in 2 others. Unfortunately I turned to that just as they were finishing the discussion so I'm not sure what numbers were included with each. Before the MI and FL inclusions though I posted something about it in this thread. At that time she could only win the popular vote with MI and FL, AND without including caucuses. I'm assuming in their math last night he still won the popular vote with caucuses (which doesn't even include the ones that don't track votes).
He's up by 30k votes without caucus estimates (which favor him) and without counting Michigan (which doesn't). A lot of vote counts don't factor in recounts and final certified results (most of which have tended to favor Obama).

Whoopty-do. Wasn't Gore up on votes? :)

The only way Hillary wins the popular vote is to count Michigan, where his name wasn't on the ballot. Take Michigan out and Obama wins. It's that simple. Florida shouldn't count, since neither campaigned there. The only reason Obama didn't fight too hard on either of those was because he won already, so why bother.

There's a lot wrong with counting the popular vote even for the states that both of them campaigned in. There's caucuses. There's different standards on WHO can vote -- open vs. closed primaries and all shades in between (including the primacaucuses for Dems in Texas and Reps in West Virginia).

Ultimately, it was delegates they were fighting for, and that had a lot about how and where they would campaign. There were lots of population centers neither candidate chose to run up the vote in, because spending the money and time to rack up tens of thousands of people in those areas wouldn't have changed the delegate math any. The difference between their winning most districts' popular vote 70-30 and 80-20 turns out to be zero, delegate-wise. It's often more worthwhile to go to that district where you're at 35% and see if you can make it 38%, because that'll make a real difference.

With the general election campaign Obama's been running for the past month, he's had bigger fish to fry and hasn't done the 50-state surgery he has in the past. Hillary outspent him in a lot of the remaining states, and it shows. This just means she'll have less money to make noise now that this phase is over.

Which is how I saw it counted it up. Michigan gets seated so CNN had it included and she won the popular vote.

What a fucking brilliant speech by Obama.

I watched McCain too, but I'll keep my thoughts on that one to myself.

I won't It was a horrible delivery.

Even some Dems who got the advanced copy said it was much better written and had better content then delivered.

See above.

chicken shit

Which is how I saw it counted it up. Michigan gets seated so CNN had it included and she won the popular vote.

But you can't count it because the DNC did not recognize the results at all. They arbitrarily split the difference between the unofficial results and the 50-50 mark. So there is no way to change the actual vote amounts to reflect that split. Even if you did, how can you figure it out since votes and delegates are not exactly proportionate (some districts might have a large turnout, but the delegate number won't change)? It's simply impossible to mess with the delegates and still count the votes, even if you simply assign uncommitted votes to Obama.

But you can't count it because the DNC did not recognize the results at all. They arbitrarily split the difference between the unofficial results and the 50-50 mark. So there is no way to change the actual vote amounts to reflect that split. Even if you did, how can you figure it out since votes and delegates are not exactly proportionate (some districts might have a large turnout, but the delegate number won't change)? It's simply impossible to mess with the delegates and still count the votes, even if you simply assign uncommitted votes to Obama.

I just made a simple comment as Hillary, imo, was exiting the race. She fought hard, she did this, she did that. I saw a graphic on CNN where they had her leading in the popular vote. I guess I should have went into great detail about where I arrived at my numbers. My ponit was she fought hard and didn't get stomped.

But because I wasn't down on my knees with Hermy slurping away at BO, I get called a liar.

It just doesn't matter anymore WTFChris. Its over. Really it seemed to me to be a historic race and not just because the country nominated the first AA to be Prez. This one might be talked about for a long time by political junkies. First women to come that close too. Pretty interesting stuff.

I wasn't ragging on her at all. I was just saying you can't really count Michigan in that. She fought hard and took it right to the end. you have to give her props for that. You also have to fault her for getting behind in the first place (when she was the front runner). I have no problem with her swing states and popular vote logic. I disagree with it, but I have no problem with her using it all this time. She's playing to win and you have to play the cards you've got.

I'd also like to see what the results of CA would be if it would have been run in June. I think there is a pretty good possibility that BO would have won. Not sure about that with the hispanic vote, but it makes for an interesting discussion.

If it were run later, and he won, it would really cut into her Electoral lead argument.

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_9426547

http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/3/Hillary_Nutcracker_4.jpg

Clinton advisor blames strategy disagreements, money for loss
Posted: 12:00 PM ET

From CNN Political Producer Alexander Marquardt (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/tag/cnn-political-producer-alexander-marquardt/)

http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_wire_BL.gif

(CNN) – In an interview out Thursday, Hillary Clinton’s former senior strategist Mark Penn blames the New York senator's loss to Barack Obama not on underestimating her opponent, but on disagreements within the campaign on how to go after him and on squandering their campaign warchest far too early.
“I wanted to question the basic underpinning of his campaign,” Penn told GQ Magazine’s Lisa DePaulo (http://men.style.com/gq/blogs/gqeditors/2008/06/why-she-lost.html). “One - that he didn’t have the usual experience of somebody running for president, and two - that the positions he took on Iraq — you know, that were revered by the press — didn’t really hold up when you look through his record in the Senate.”
Penn said former President Bill Clinton agreed with him and went after Obama on Iraq which resulted in his infamous “fairy tale” comments (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/08/bill-clinton-targets-media-coverage-of-obama/)but that the rest of the campaign wanted to hold back because they felt Clinton’s refusal to apologize for her Senate vote to authorize the Iraq war made her vulnerable.
WATCH Bill Clinton's 'fairy tale' comments (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/01/08/sot.clinton.obama.fairy.tale.cnn)
“The reason that I would have gone after him early was precisely because I didn’t underestimate the power of a fresh new candidate who also had appeal to the African-American vote and the latte voters,” says Penn. “How do you stop something like that, right? You don’t stop something like that by being “warmer” [snorts]—by, you know, giving an interview on a personality show.”

Penn argues that what is being overlooked is how the $100 million the campaign amassed in 2007 had somehow disappeared after the first contest in Iowa — money crucial to building organizations in future states.
“It was always anticipated that if things didn’t go well in Iowa — and Iowa was the toughest place — that there would be $25 million left in the kitty in order to go into the next round of states. Instead, the cupboard was bare,” says Penn.
Penn also agreed with criticisms that the media was sexist and unfairly pushed her to end her campaign.
“The press always falls in love with the new cool intellectual candidate. You know, he is their kind of candidate,” says Penn. “The microscope that they put her under, that they did not put her opponent and opponents under, was just incredible.”
Clinton suspended her campaign last Saturday with tens of millions of dollars in debt, including - the New York Times reports - $5 million owed to Penn.