Glenn
11-02-2007, 03:04 PM
Some sweet-ass PER-action for you.
:hollinger:
2007-08 All-Breakout Team: Who's raising their game to next level?
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Updated: November 2, 2007
It's a new season, and with every new season we see inevitable changes. Some guys show improved jumpers or bigger muscles and play better than we expected; others show up 20 pounds heavier or a year older and can't quite produce at the same level.
Today we're going to look on the first half of that equation: my All-Breakout team for 2007-08. Veteran readers will be familiar with this product, as I've done it the past two years, as well. However, this time I'm going to change the format a little.
In the past, I've just picked 10 guys and gone with them as a list, which was nice and all but didn't quite do justice to their individual cases. Looking back on last year's team, for instance, the breakout I expected from Luol Deng was of a completely different type than the one I expected from Danny Granger. One guy was going from solid starter to borderline All-Star, the other from backup to solid starter; just throwing them together on a list didn't quite seem to capture the difference.
So this year, I bring a bit more nuance to the list. I've broken it up into a few different categories so you can more easily understand exactly how much breaking out we're talking about with these guys. Actually, I made eight groups, which might be overkill, but what the heck.
As always, the ground rules come first. First, I'm scrapping the nobody-from-last-year's-list rule since I'm changing the format; welcome back, Josh Smith. (And yes, it's possible to break out twice in a row -- once from part-time starter to minor star, and again from minor star to big-time star.)
The last two rules from a year ago remain, however: First, no comeback cases like Bobby Simmons or Kenyon Martin -- we're just talking about players legitimately stepping up from their former level. Second, minutes matter. There are a few guys I would have included on this list if I'd been more sure of their minutes (Trevor Ariza, for instance, or Sergio Rodriguez); since I'm not, I'm leaving them off.
That still leaves a 20-man team, however, for this year's All-Breakout squad. Not all of them are going to be superstars, but I'm betting on all of them to do a lot more damage this season than last. The envelopes, please:
GROUP I: All-Star to superstar
Dwight Howard, Magic (projected PER: 24.51)
In preseason, he was a sight to behold. Not to mention on Opening Night he tallied 16 points, 12 rebounds and 7 blocks against the Bucks. He's more physically imposing than a year ago, if you can imagine that. Plus, he has obviously worked on his shooting touch in the offseason, and it looks like he's even getting the hang of passing out of double-teams.
He's a two-way player, too, who is going to be on the All-Defense team one of these years. That could be as soon as this year; he stands to reap a big chunk of the credit if the Magic are as good as I expect.
GROUP II: Nawlins bound?
These guys haven't been on an All-Star team before, but all four put up monster numbers after the break last year. So if everything breaks right, they could be in New Orleans in February.
Josh Smith, Atlanta (projected PER: 20.74)
The Hawks' southpaw took his game to another level down the stretch last season, when he had to become Atlanta's go-to guy after Joe Johnson went down. Johnson's return means Smith will have to strike a balance, but his attacking off the dribble after last season's break was a welcome change from all the long J's he settled for early in the season.
He's got crazy hops, of course, and is an underrated passer, so as long as he stays aggressive and eschews the 20-footers, his game seems primed to take another step forward.
Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (projected PER: 19.33)
Here's all you need to know about how well Jefferson played down the stretch last season: When the Garnett rumors started, I got several e-mails from Celtics fans asking if Jefferson wasn't going to be the better player this year. While that's a stretch that would make a Slinky wince, it goes to show what a force Jefferson has become on the blocks.
Some wonder if he'll get the same shots playing on a lousy Wolves team, but Jefferson's team last season was lousy, too. It won't make a difference. Look for him to threaten the 20-10 barrier and do it while shooting around 50 percent.
Andre Iguodala, Sixers (projected PER: 19.09)
Iggy is another guy who took off after last season's All-Star break, and like Jefferson he's going to get his numbers while playing for a terrible team. Unlike Jefferson, however, he's a multilayered threat who defends, attacks off the dribble and is a good passer.
All that's missing is a consistent long-range jump shot, and I suspect he might have the form and work ethic to add that element in the next year or two. If so, he could be a perennial All-Star even if his team is terrible.
Tyson Chandler, Hornets (projected PER: 15.80)
A dervish on the boards who helped the Hornets stay afloat through all their injuries last season, Chandler is a poor man's Ben Wallace who defends and rebounds like crazy but is very limited offensively. At least he can convert his putbacks into points and get some alley-oops in transition, and he's not dropping as many passes around the basket as he used to.
His projected PER isn't as good as the other guys' PERs because of an off year in 2005-06 with Chicago when he had a weird lack of stamina, but if he steps up at all from what he did last season he's going to get a lot of attention. He also might lead the league in rebounding.
GROUP III: Second-year phenoms
LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers (projected PER: 18.00)
The runway choice for Most Improved Player in ESPN.com's preseason analyst poll, Aldridge showed why on opening day when he lit the Spurs up for 27 points. Food for thought: Everyone talks about Aldridge's jumper allowing him to make room for Greg Oden once Oden returns from knee surgery a year from now, but perhaps we need to consider the opposite possibility. Maybe Oden is the one who will have to make room on the block for his teammate.
Ronnie Brewer, Jazz (projected PER: 15.95)
If Derek Fisher had stayed, would he have kept his job? You have to wonder given how good Brewer looked in preseason and in Utah's opener. His ability to score around the basket allows him to benefit from all Utah's screening and cutting, while his knack for getting out in transition gives the Jazz's offense another dimension.
I worry about him and Andrei Kirilenko playing together on the wings since neither of them can shoot worth a darn, but it seems his other talents may overwhelm that one weakness.
Andrea Bargnani (projected PER: 14.09)
Subjectively, I suspect Bargnani will beat his projected PER numbers. I say that not because he scored 20 points in 22 minutes Wednesday night, although that's certainly a point in his favor, but because his numbers from the Italian league suggested he'd play better than he did last season -- so I'd argue there's plenty of room to go up.
Throw in a likely boost in playing time (not to mention shots) and his per-game numbers seem set for a fairly big leap.
GROUP IV: Guys who will be appearing on this list for the final time
Darko Milicic, Grizzlies (projected PER: 15.66)
I am so done with making excuses for this guy. So why is he on this list? Because when I watched the Memphis-San Antonio game on Wednesday, it looked like he was actually playing hard. I can't say that I've seen that before.
We all know the only thing holding him back is his motor, so the fact that he looked like he actually gave a crap is a huge factor here. He's only 22, he's probably going to play more, and if motivated, he can still be a huge force as a center.
GROUP V: Veteran forwards who could have career years
It's weird putting these guys in a list of breakout players, but sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. All three of these guys have been around the block a few times, but each could be headed for a career year.
Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (projected PER: 19.56)
The single most underrated player in the league, Wallace is an All-Star caliber talent who hasn't been selected thanks to a combination of injuries and a lack of exposure. Wallace had career-best scoring numbers last year even though his first two months were terrible thanks to an early-season concussion.
He's becoming less one-dimensional too, with an improved jumper and one-on-one skills. If he can stay in one piece and keep the Bobcats reasonably close in the playoff race, this might be the year he finally gets some recognition.
Drew Gooden, Cavaliers (projected PER: 17.04)
With Anderson Varejao holding out, Gooden stands to be the main beneficiary in the form of increased minutes -- he played 40 in the opener after averaging 28 a year ago.
The 26-year-old forward may also have more shots coming his way too, since Zydrunas Ilgauskas isn't getting any younger and the Cavs' guards continue to disappoint. Add it up and last year's averages of 11.1 and 8.5 could be this year's 14 and 10.
Mike Dunleavy, Pacers (projected PER: 13.78)
No, this isn't a joke. He had a great preseason and a strong opener against Washington. He's guaranteed minutes and is no longer burdened by expectations the way he was in Golden State. And at 27, he should be at his peak as a player.
Finally, his numbers last year weren't even that bad -- he had a 15.06 PER in Golden State before the trade to Indiana messed with his numbers. With a new system that seems friendly to his style of play and every other factor lined up in his favor, maybe now we'll see him at his best.
GROUP VI: Next-generation point guards
Deron Williams, Jazz (projected PER 16.92)
Chris Paul, Hornets (projected PER: 24.67)
I hear you now: "Thanks for giving us those two, rocket scientist. I hear that Nowitzki guy in Dallas might have a good year too." OK, this was an obvious call. But I feel weird making a list of emerging young point guards and excluding these two. And while both are established stars, each could make further improvements this season -- one easy area to step up would be on 3-pointers, where each struggled last year.
(By the way, if Williams' projected PER looks low to you & it is. His bad rookie numbers still hold him back in the projections system, but in his case I'm much more willing to trust what he did last year).
Devin Harris, Mavericks (projected PER: 16.98)
Now that he's been installed as the Mavs' starter at the point, Harris' star is likely to rise -- as much in terms of perception as in per-game numbers. Harris is one of the league's quickest guards, an asset that's especially apparent at the defensive end.
His being a full-time starter is likely the last barrier to All-Defense recognition; meanwhile, he's a jump shot away from being an absolute dynamo at the offensive end.
Louis Williams, Sixers (projected PER: 14.29)
Since nobody paid any attention to the Sixers last year, and the same will probably happen this year, I'll sound the warning: Keep an eye out for this guy, because he's one of the league's top young scoring guards. He's only 21, but his absurd quickness allows him to beat almost anyone off the dribble.
He's still figuring out how to put it all together, but he's going to get minutes and his talent is undeniable, so we could be looking at this year's Monta Ellis.
Nate Robinson, Knicks (projected PER: 16.59)
Whispers out of New York are that Robinson is finally starting to act like a grown-up. If so, it may allow his prodigious scoring skills to come to the forefront. The 5-9 spark plug averaged nearly a point every two minutes last year and may top that this time around; combined with a potential boost in playing time (especially if he can poach Stephon Marbury's job), he could boost his scoring average to around 15 a game.
GROUP VII: They're not gonna be stars, but …
This is my favorite category -- the role players who are ready to step up and make a much larger contribution.
Ronny Turiaf, Lakers (projected PER: 15.13)
He fouls too much to stay on the court for extended minutes, but I'm a big fan of this guy's energy, and he actually has some skill too. Turiaf has the league's eight-best rate of shot blocks last season and is an efficient scorer at the other end.
I'm a little amazed the Lakers haven't played him more and I'm not sure they realize what they have, but the fact he started the opener makes me think they've started noticing.
Kelenna Azubuike, Warriors (projected PER: 13.82)
Is he as good as Jason Richardson? No. Will he end up playing a lot of minutes in his place? Absolutely. Nobody talks about this guy when they mention the Warrior's perimeter players, but I suspect he's going to end up playing a major role -- especially once they've seen enough seven-point, one-rebound, no-assist nights from overhyped rookie Marco Belinelli. I never understood why Azubuike fell out of the rotation during last year's playoffs, and it seems like he's still getting better.
Linas Kleiza, Nuggets (projected PER: 12.99)
It's all about opportunity, folks, and Kleiza has a huge one. With J.R. Smith in the doghouse and Chucky Atkins in business casual on the sidelines, Kleiza becomes the Nuggets' shooter du jour.
It's a plum job, as he showed in hitting five triples against Seattle on Wednesday night, because everybody will be zoning up this team and daring them to win from outside. Like a lot of guys on this list, Kleiza also played much better in the second half of last season.
GROUP VIII: They're not gonna be stars, but…
Several guys just missed the cut for a variety of reasons, so let's give them all a quick moment in the sun:
• David Lee would be near the top of this list if I thought the Knicks were smart enough to start him ahead of Eddy Curry. But they're not …
• A lot of folks are talking up Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson, but I'm not sure if there are enough minutes available for either to put up breakout-type numbers -- especially since they're taking each other's minutes …
• Same goes for Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster, though I like Outlaw much better of the two …
• Dorell Wright would make this list if his coach didn't seem so averse to playing him …
• Andray Blatche's name has come up a lot too, but I'll be more receptive when I hear he's putting in the work and has his head on straight …
• Same goes for perennial teases Gerald Green and Sebastian Telfair …
• Charlie Villanueva would be a nice pick if another guy who plays his position hadn't been promised 25 minutes a game …
• Paul Millsap will be a stud if one of the two guys in front of him gets hurt …
• Luis Scola might be a better breakout pick for 2008-09 -- a lot of the veteran European players have seemed to need a year to get their sea legs …
:hollinger:
2007-08 All-Breakout Team: Who's raising their game to next level?
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Updated: November 2, 2007
It's a new season, and with every new season we see inevitable changes. Some guys show improved jumpers or bigger muscles and play better than we expected; others show up 20 pounds heavier or a year older and can't quite produce at the same level.
Today we're going to look on the first half of that equation: my All-Breakout team for 2007-08. Veteran readers will be familiar with this product, as I've done it the past two years, as well. However, this time I'm going to change the format a little.
In the past, I've just picked 10 guys and gone with them as a list, which was nice and all but didn't quite do justice to their individual cases. Looking back on last year's team, for instance, the breakout I expected from Luol Deng was of a completely different type than the one I expected from Danny Granger. One guy was going from solid starter to borderline All-Star, the other from backup to solid starter; just throwing them together on a list didn't quite seem to capture the difference.
So this year, I bring a bit more nuance to the list. I've broken it up into a few different categories so you can more easily understand exactly how much breaking out we're talking about with these guys. Actually, I made eight groups, which might be overkill, but what the heck.
As always, the ground rules come first. First, I'm scrapping the nobody-from-last-year's-list rule since I'm changing the format; welcome back, Josh Smith. (And yes, it's possible to break out twice in a row -- once from part-time starter to minor star, and again from minor star to big-time star.)
The last two rules from a year ago remain, however: First, no comeback cases like Bobby Simmons or Kenyon Martin -- we're just talking about players legitimately stepping up from their former level. Second, minutes matter. There are a few guys I would have included on this list if I'd been more sure of their minutes (Trevor Ariza, for instance, or Sergio Rodriguez); since I'm not, I'm leaving them off.
That still leaves a 20-man team, however, for this year's All-Breakout squad. Not all of them are going to be superstars, but I'm betting on all of them to do a lot more damage this season than last. The envelopes, please:
GROUP I: All-Star to superstar
Dwight Howard, Magic (projected PER: 24.51)
In preseason, he was a sight to behold. Not to mention on Opening Night he tallied 16 points, 12 rebounds and 7 blocks against the Bucks. He's more physically imposing than a year ago, if you can imagine that. Plus, he has obviously worked on his shooting touch in the offseason, and it looks like he's even getting the hang of passing out of double-teams.
He's a two-way player, too, who is going to be on the All-Defense team one of these years. That could be as soon as this year; he stands to reap a big chunk of the credit if the Magic are as good as I expect.
GROUP II: Nawlins bound?
These guys haven't been on an All-Star team before, but all four put up monster numbers after the break last year. So if everything breaks right, they could be in New Orleans in February.
Josh Smith, Atlanta (projected PER: 20.74)
The Hawks' southpaw took his game to another level down the stretch last season, when he had to become Atlanta's go-to guy after Joe Johnson went down. Johnson's return means Smith will have to strike a balance, but his attacking off the dribble after last season's break was a welcome change from all the long J's he settled for early in the season.
He's got crazy hops, of course, and is an underrated passer, so as long as he stays aggressive and eschews the 20-footers, his game seems primed to take another step forward.
Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (projected PER: 19.33)
Here's all you need to know about how well Jefferson played down the stretch last season: When the Garnett rumors started, I got several e-mails from Celtics fans asking if Jefferson wasn't going to be the better player this year. While that's a stretch that would make a Slinky wince, it goes to show what a force Jefferson has become on the blocks.
Some wonder if he'll get the same shots playing on a lousy Wolves team, but Jefferson's team last season was lousy, too. It won't make a difference. Look for him to threaten the 20-10 barrier and do it while shooting around 50 percent.
Andre Iguodala, Sixers (projected PER: 19.09)
Iggy is another guy who took off after last season's All-Star break, and like Jefferson he's going to get his numbers while playing for a terrible team. Unlike Jefferson, however, he's a multilayered threat who defends, attacks off the dribble and is a good passer.
All that's missing is a consistent long-range jump shot, and I suspect he might have the form and work ethic to add that element in the next year or two. If so, he could be a perennial All-Star even if his team is terrible.
Tyson Chandler, Hornets (projected PER: 15.80)
A dervish on the boards who helped the Hornets stay afloat through all their injuries last season, Chandler is a poor man's Ben Wallace who defends and rebounds like crazy but is very limited offensively. At least he can convert his putbacks into points and get some alley-oops in transition, and he's not dropping as many passes around the basket as he used to.
His projected PER isn't as good as the other guys' PERs because of an off year in 2005-06 with Chicago when he had a weird lack of stamina, but if he steps up at all from what he did last season he's going to get a lot of attention. He also might lead the league in rebounding.
GROUP III: Second-year phenoms
LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers (projected PER: 18.00)
The runway choice for Most Improved Player in ESPN.com's preseason analyst poll, Aldridge showed why on opening day when he lit the Spurs up for 27 points. Food for thought: Everyone talks about Aldridge's jumper allowing him to make room for Greg Oden once Oden returns from knee surgery a year from now, but perhaps we need to consider the opposite possibility. Maybe Oden is the one who will have to make room on the block for his teammate.
Ronnie Brewer, Jazz (projected PER: 15.95)
If Derek Fisher had stayed, would he have kept his job? You have to wonder given how good Brewer looked in preseason and in Utah's opener. His ability to score around the basket allows him to benefit from all Utah's screening and cutting, while his knack for getting out in transition gives the Jazz's offense another dimension.
I worry about him and Andrei Kirilenko playing together on the wings since neither of them can shoot worth a darn, but it seems his other talents may overwhelm that one weakness.
Andrea Bargnani (projected PER: 14.09)
Subjectively, I suspect Bargnani will beat his projected PER numbers. I say that not because he scored 20 points in 22 minutes Wednesday night, although that's certainly a point in his favor, but because his numbers from the Italian league suggested he'd play better than he did last season -- so I'd argue there's plenty of room to go up.
Throw in a likely boost in playing time (not to mention shots) and his per-game numbers seem set for a fairly big leap.
GROUP IV: Guys who will be appearing on this list for the final time
Darko Milicic, Grizzlies (projected PER: 15.66)
I am so done with making excuses for this guy. So why is he on this list? Because when I watched the Memphis-San Antonio game on Wednesday, it looked like he was actually playing hard. I can't say that I've seen that before.
We all know the only thing holding him back is his motor, so the fact that he looked like he actually gave a crap is a huge factor here. He's only 22, he's probably going to play more, and if motivated, he can still be a huge force as a center.
GROUP V: Veteran forwards who could have career years
It's weird putting these guys in a list of breakout players, but sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. All three of these guys have been around the block a few times, but each could be headed for a career year.
Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (projected PER: 19.56)
The single most underrated player in the league, Wallace is an All-Star caliber talent who hasn't been selected thanks to a combination of injuries and a lack of exposure. Wallace had career-best scoring numbers last year even though his first two months were terrible thanks to an early-season concussion.
He's becoming less one-dimensional too, with an improved jumper and one-on-one skills. If he can stay in one piece and keep the Bobcats reasonably close in the playoff race, this might be the year he finally gets some recognition.
Drew Gooden, Cavaliers (projected PER: 17.04)
With Anderson Varejao holding out, Gooden stands to be the main beneficiary in the form of increased minutes -- he played 40 in the opener after averaging 28 a year ago.
The 26-year-old forward may also have more shots coming his way too, since Zydrunas Ilgauskas isn't getting any younger and the Cavs' guards continue to disappoint. Add it up and last year's averages of 11.1 and 8.5 could be this year's 14 and 10.
Mike Dunleavy, Pacers (projected PER: 13.78)
No, this isn't a joke. He had a great preseason and a strong opener against Washington. He's guaranteed minutes and is no longer burdened by expectations the way he was in Golden State. And at 27, he should be at his peak as a player.
Finally, his numbers last year weren't even that bad -- he had a 15.06 PER in Golden State before the trade to Indiana messed with his numbers. With a new system that seems friendly to his style of play and every other factor lined up in his favor, maybe now we'll see him at his best.
GROUP VI: Next-generation point guards
Deron Williams, Jazz (projected PER 16.92)
Chris Paul, Hornets (projected PER: 24.67)
I hear you now: "Thanks for giving us those two, rocket scientist. I hear that Nowitzki guy in Dallas might have a good year too." OK, this was an obvious call. But I feel weird making a list of emerging young point guards and excluding these two. And while both are established stars, each could make further improvements this season -- one easy area to step up would be on 3-pointers, where each struggled last year.
(By the way, if Williams' projected PER looks low to you & it is. His bad rookie numbers still hold him back in the projections system, but in his case I'm much more willing to trust what he did last year).
Devin Harris, Mavericks (projected PER: 16.98)
Now that he's been installed as the Mavs' starter at the point, Harris' star is likely to rise -- as much in terms of perception as in per-game numbers. Harris is one of the league's quickest guards, an asset that's especially apparent at the defensive end.
His being a full-time starter is likely the last barrier to All-Defense recognition; meanwhile, he's a jump shot away from being an absolute dynamo at the offensive end.
Louis Williams, Sixers (projected PER: 14.29)
Since nobody paid any attention to the Sixers last year, and the same will probably happen this year, I'll sound the warning: Keep an eye out for this guy, because he's one of the league's top young scoring guards. He's only 21, but his absurd quickness allows him to beat almost anyone off the dribble.
He's still figuring out how to put it all together, but he's going to get minutes and his talent is undeniable, so we could be looking at this year's Monta Ellis.
Nate Robinson, Knicks (projected PER: 16.59)
Whispers out of New York are that Robinson is finally starting to act like a grown-up. If so, it may allow his prodigious scoring skills to come to the forefront. The 5-9 spark plug averaged nearly a point every two minutes last year and may top that this time around; combined with a potential boost in playing time (especially if he can poach Stephon Marbury's job), he could boost his scoring average to around 15 a game.
GROUP VII: They're not gonna be stars, but …
This is my favorite category -- the role players who are ready to step up and make a much larger contribution.
Ronny Turiaf, Lakers (projected PER: 15.13)
He fouls too much to stay on the court for extended minutes, but I'm a big fan of this guy's energy, and he actually has some skill too. Turiaf has the league's eight-best rate of shot blocks last season and is an efficient scorer at the other end.
I'm a little amazed the Lakers haven't played him more and I'm not sure they realize what they have, but the fact he started the opener makes me think they've started noticing.
Kelenna Azubuike, Warriors (projected PER: 13.82)
Is he as good as Jason Richardson? No. Will he end up playing a lot of minutes in his place? Absolutely. Nobody talks about this guy when they mention the Warrior's perimeter players, but I suspect he's going to end up playing a major role -- especially once they've seen enough seven-point, one-rebound, no-assist nights from overhyped rookie Marco Belinelli. I never understood why Azubuike fell out of the rotation during last year's playoffs, and it seems like he's still getting better.
Linas Kleiza, Nuggets (projected PER: 12.99)
It's all about opportunity, folks, and Kleiza has a huge one. With J.R. Smith in the doghouse and Chucky Atkins in business casual on the sidelines, Kleiza becomes the Nuggets' shooter du jour.
It's a plum job, as he showed in hitting five triples against Seattle on Wednesday night, because everybody will be zoning up this team and daring them to win from outside. Like a lot of guys on this list, Kleiza also played much better in the second half of last season.
GROUP VIII: They're not gonna be stars, but…
Several guys just missed the cut for a variety of reasons, so let's give them all a quick moment in the sun:
• David Lee would be near the top of this list if I thought the Knicks were smart enough to start him ahead of Eddy Curry. But they're not …
• A lot of folks are talking up Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson, but I'm not sure if there are enough minutes available for either to put up breakout-type numbers -- especially since they're taking each other's minutes …
• Same goes for Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster, though I like Outlaw much better of the two …
• Dorell Wright would make this list if his coach didn't seem so averse to playing him …
• Andray Blatche's name has come up a lot too, but I'll be more receptive when I hear he's putting in the work and has his head on straight …
• Same goes for perennial teases Gerald Green and Sebastian Telfair …
• Charlie Villanueva would be a nice pick if another guy who plays his position hadn't been promised 25 minutes a game …
• Paul Millsap will be a stud if one of the two guys in front of him gets hurt …
• Luis Scola might be a better breakout pick for 2008-09 -- a lot of the veteran European players have seemed to need a year to get their sea legs …