-- President Bush will announce this week plans to cut U.S. troops in Iraq by about 30,000 -- to pre-'surge' levels -- by next summer, a senior administration official confirms to CNN.

It'll just be a draw-down. He won't actually pull out of Iraq for the rest of his presidency. He's going to wait for the inevitable Democratic president to do that, and then Fox News will have so much "cut-and-run Democrat party" ammo that they'll piss themselves with glee.

Well it would be a cut and run, wouldn't it? Serious question there.

Just wondering where you stand on all that, Swami. Pull out just as soon as you can get everyone on planes? Its hard to figure from here but now that we are there, I'm not sure we can just pull out.

if troop reduction returns us to pre-surge conditions in iraq then bush is giving every reason to give up in iraq. however, if things cool off in iraq then we atleast have a light at the end and a reason to help out a little longer. i would hope that im wrong and its the latter, but im pretty sure it'll be the former.

Actually, I'm in favor of leaving Iraq yesterday. Iraq is in full-fledged civil war the second we leave, no matter when we leave. Shi'a, Kurds and Sunni Muslims have been at each other's throats in Mesopotamia for centuries, they held off the entire time they were under the iron fist of Saddam Hussein. They know how to bide their time.

American involvement in Iraq is going to provide two things: first, money and weapons to whichever faction happens to tell us what we want to hear (hell, we had our support 100% behind Ahmed Chalabi at one point. That would have been disastrous had the press not investigated him). The other thing is Iranian influence. The longer we stay, the more influence Iran has over the population of Iraq.

Think about this: imagine Mexico is run by a totalitarian government, and this government has made obnoxious threats against China. China, thinking it's defending itself, invades Mexico and stays there for a long time trying to get a government in place that will be exactly what China wants them to be. But things aren't going well - the Mexicans hate their new Chinese overlords and are blowing shit up and starting up firefights constantly, and the whole situation is touch-and-go.

Does the US just sit on its hands, waiting patiently for China and Mexico to sort things out? No. The US is going to take any measures it can if one of its neighbors, with whom it shares an enormous border, is increasingly unstable. We already know that China and the US have had disagreements. The US is damn sure going to be figuring out who it likes best inside Mexico and sending them lawyers, guns, and money, and planning for them to come out on top.

That's what Iran is doing right now. Iran is pretty powerful in the greater Middle East. It's got a pretty modern infrastructure and a fair amount of money. It's not fair to expect them to sit around doing nothing while Iraq, which they've been at war with in the past, destabilizes. It's just going to get worse.

The way I see it, if the results are the same no matter when you pull out, pull out now.

Not to sound like a broken record, but damn, Swami is good.

Cogentulations on a great post.

Not to sound like a broken record, but damn, Swami is good.

Cogentulations on a great post.

Swami is always right on. I'm guessing the "China in Mexico" argument is a little too cogent for the right wing, though.
I've always wondered about the people who would call an Iraq withdrawal "cut and run". Fuckin' A, we started this mess for no reason, we had no justification to go in there in the first place!
Of course you could classify it as cut and run, even if we do it fifty years from now, when the political climate there will be the same as it is now!!!

Let's not even begin to discuss the paper bag of shit we've lit on fire with the Kurds. We've given them tons of money and support. If you go into the Kurdish part of Iraq, you wouldn't even realize there was a war going on, they've got it so good right now. Things are stable there. Life is good if you're a Kurd in northern Iraq. But guess what? Kurds don't just live in Iraq. The Kurds have had a great long history of terrorist attacks against Turkey, Armenia, Syria, and Iran, fighting for what they see as the right to establish their own Kurdish homeland in the Middle East. The more aid we give to the Kurds, the more we piss off the Turks, Armenians, Syrians, and Iranians, and let's face it, we need all the friends we can get in the Middle East right now.

There's talk now that when the US finally withdraws from Iraq, no matter when, the Kurds may declare independence and secede from Iraq, and if they do that, the Turkish army will definitely invade them, setting the stage for yet another retarded Middle Eastern terrorist war.

Yea, I disagree.

What are we accomplishing by our military being there, Tahoe? I haven't heard many cogent reason to do so.

So big oil holds us over more of a barrel?
So bad people can target us instead of each other?

Is it worth the cost?

AFAICT, things are going to turn shittier and shittier in Iraq no matter what. Our lack of plan after ousting Saddam guaranteed that. Hell, our presence attracted Al Qaeda elements to Iraq when they were not there before. We're damned if we do and damned if we don't, and "damned if we do" costs us a lot and hasn't gotten us much of anywhere.

Yea, I disagree.

No one thought this was funny? The Swam wrote a nice lengthy post describing all sorts of things, and I said 'I disagree' get it?

:(

Let's not even begin to discuss the paper bag of shit we've lit on fire with the Kurds. We've given them tons of money and support. If you go into the Kurdish part of Iraq, you wouldn't even realize there was a war going on, they've got it so good right now. Things are stable there. Life is good if you're a Kurd in northern Iraq. But guess what? Kurds don't just live in Iraq. The Kurds have had a great long history of terrorist attacks against Turkey, Armenia, Syria, and Iran, fighting for what they see as the right to establish their own Kurdish homeland in the Middle East. The more aid we give to the Kurds, the more we piss off the Turks, Armenians, Syrians, and Iranians, and let's face it, we need all the friends we can get in the Middle East right now.

There's talk now that when the US finally withdraws from Iraq, no matter when, the Kurds may declare independence and secede from Iraq, and if they do that, the Turkish army will definitely invade them, setting the stage for yet another retarded Middle Eastern terrorist war.

No sooner will the Kurds get themselves settled and start blowing shit up, but then the Wheys will get in on the action.

No one thought this was funny? The Swam wrote a nice lengthy post describing all sorts of things, and I said 'I disagree' get it?

:(

I wasn't sure how to take that at first, but now that you mention it, I have to kind of laugh at myself for not getting it. I'm such a dope.


No sooner will the Kurds get themselves settled and start blowing shit up, but then the Wheys will get in on the action.

And as soon as the Wheys get involved, the Kurds are going to be fried, and then this horrible conflict stretches into Wisconsin somehow.

i agree with swami's post. however, if good things somehow really were happening in iraq due to the surge, ie the economy up, unemployment down, sectarianism in the government waning; then i'd say it was worth us doing what we can to keep them on track.

basically, what im saying is i think iraq is a failure but its not like i want it to be. i think iraq has been f'd up since day 1, but if we could somehow salvage good out of it we would owe it to the iraqi people to do so. im 95 % certain we should just go home, though.

No one thought this was funny? The Swam wrote a nice lengthy post describing all sorts of things, and I said 'I disagree' get it?:(
Sometimes, it's really fun to reply to some long, whiny email with "No." or "Oh.", but it has to be one word and it's best if you actually quote the entire thing so you know you're being a smartass. Not that I speak from direct experience on many multiple occasions... not me.

Oh well... back to the clash over Iraq:

0Ag8J2NMYmc

Here's a fun spam email that I just got...


The night after 9/11 Osama Bin Laden tossed and turned in bed, realizing the New York attack had done nothing for his cause. Killed a bunch of innocent people, that's all, and increased sympathy for America around the world. Osama lay there disgusted with himself. All he'd done is alienate moderate Islamists who would otherwise be critical of the West, and to be critical, had he not just sent 3000 people to their deaths. Osama was sleepless. First of all, to wage a Holy War, troops must have training, preferably training in real-life battle. Of course, blowing up buildings in New York doesn't clear out a nice sandbox for you to engaging American troops and hone your skills as an army. Secondly, blowing up two buildings full of people doesn't gain you many supporters, so how could Osama recruit for his army? Osama lay thinking, and realized he wasn't the only player in the Middle East. The big man about town, Saddam Hussein, despised Islamic fundamentalists about as much as America did, and sadly it looked like he'd be around for a while. What's worse, Osama's Afghan allies, the Taliban, could be easily routed in a quick war, in which the Americans would emerge popular and respected in the region. So under a starry sky, Osama thought to himself, could 9/11 have been a blunder?

Then Osama hit on it. He sat up, a smile on his face. Get America to invade Iraq! How simple! Furthermore, get them to do it on the cheap, building into a long, drawn-out conflict with mounting casualties on both sides, the innocent with the guilty, which would frustrate Americans and enrage the world. Osama grew excited, realizing just how many problems could be solved in one stroke, if only the Americans would go for it. Without Saddam in the region, who'd be left to oppose him? If Osama's troops could slip into Iraq and engage American forces, they'd get the practice they need to become a military threat. Most importantly, if Americans killed innocent civilians, Osama would have his recruitment tool. He'd only have to point out America's acts of war, and young Islamist recruits would flock to his cause. Even better, if America became preoccupied in Iraq, they'd forget about Afghanistan, which would allow Osama's allies to creep back in and set up shop virtually unopposed.

Ah, but Osama realized he was running away with himself. The American people would never allow their leaders to overthrow an ally against fundamentalism and leave the Iranians unopposed. Nor would they let the Republicans shift focus away from his home in Afghanistan and invade Iraq, a nation that had nothing to do with 9/11. Not even Americans are that dumb.

Osama sighed and fell sleep, sad and dejected. For a few minutes there, it looked like it was all going to be so easy.

Jon Stewart was cogent as hell about this stuff this week. Talking about Bush and Petraeus, and about how they are always saying the troops can't leave Iraq because "it's dangerous to try to predict how the Iraq conflict will develop in the future." Then, not even minute later, they're telling us about the horrible things that definitely will happen if the US pulls out.

So basically it's dangerous to say what you think is going to happen in Iraq, except if you want the war to keep going.

Cheney is in GR as I type and is scheduled to speak at 10:30.

Protesters are everywhere downtown.

Best sign I saw this morning was "DICK CHENEY SHOT A MAN IN THE FACE!!!"

BTW, Cheney is speaking to an "invitation-only" (controlled) crowd of 250.

Protesters and other non-priviledged civilians are being kept far away from the area (Gerald Ford Museum).

Link to the live stream if anyone wants to watch: http://www.wzzm13.com/video/live.html

Link to the live stream if anyone wants to watch:

"Here's a hammer if you feel like bashing yourself in the nutsack."

Well, I watched it and I learned that the President and pretty much everyone involved is doing a damn good job, so nothing to see here...

Oh god, the minute the President thinks you're doing a good job, you're about to be thrown out on your ass.

P.S. Today is Gonzales' last day.

Let's not even begin to discuss the paper bag of shit we've lit on fire with the Kurds. We've given them tons of money and support. If you go into the Kurdish part of Iraq, you wouldn't even realize there was a war going on, they've got it so good right now. Things are stable there. Life is good if you're a Kurd in northern Iraq. But guess what? Kurds don't just live in Iraq. The Kurds have had a great long history of terrorist attacks against Turkey, Armenia, Syria, and Iran, fighting for what they see as the right to establish their own Kurdish homeland in the Middle East. The more aid we give to the Kurds, the more we piss off the Turks, Armenians, Syrians, and Iranians, and let's face it, we need all the friends we can get in the Middle East right now.

There's talk now that when the US finally withdraws from Iraq, no matter when, the Kurds may declare independence and secede from Iraq, and if they do that, the Turkish army will definitely invade them, setting the stage for yet another retarded Middle Eastern terrorist war.

Someone call me fuckin' cogent, motherbitches!

You were right, er, cogent. The Turks have begun to explore military options against the Kurds.

Just as things in Iraq seem to be getting quite a bit better, the north (which has been the most stable part of Iraq) could get ugly. 2 enemies fighting? not a big deal, 2 friendly's fighting? sucks.

I think the only reason things have calmed down a little in the rest of Iraq is that the ethnic cleansing has finally been completed. There are very few Sunnis left in Baghdad.

There are still attacks, but AQ has been diminished, at this time anyway. The surge did it, imo.

The Tribal Sheiks in Anbar flipping and siding with us thereby going against AQ was huge. They simply did not want to side with AQ killing children and innocent peeps anymore.

Sunni Arabs turned against AQ cuz they were brutal.

Casualty levels are down for US and Iraqi troop, as well as innocent peeps.

Like I said, so now that things are going our way or heading in the right direction, the northern region could blow.