Glenn
08-22-2007, 02:55 PM
:langlois:
LLTP (Langlois Loves The Pistons) is a new ongoing series of articles by Pistons.com own "beat reporter", Keith Langlois.
Today's installment...
Much Ado
Free agency’s influence wanes as GMs wise up to team building
by Keith Langlois
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Free agency might not be dead, but it’s on life support. Oh, it’s been wonderful in what it’s meant for player salaries over the past few decades. And it will continue to be a boon for the dozen or so each year who benefit by the timing of having a panicked suitor willing to overspend. But as a way of turning lottery teams into championship contenders, it’s pretty much run its course.
That might seem an odd proclamation to Pistons fans who’ve sweated out two summers of free-agent angst, first watching Ben Wallace not only leave town but land in Chicago, of all places, and then finally exhaling last month when Chauncey Billups signed off on a deal that should allow him to retire a Piston and cement his legacy as one of the franchise’s all-time greats.
But Big Ben was the only truly significant player among the 44 who switched uniforms via free agency last off-season. And, by most reasonable estimations, the impact of his move was relatively minor. Without him, the Pistons still locked up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and were eliminated in six games in the conference finals – the same scenario that played out with Wallace the previous season.
With Wallace, Chicago advanced one more round in the NBA postseason but lost to the Pistons in the second round. The questions that bear asking are how much Chicago – built around a young core of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng – would have improved without Wallace’s addition, and if Bulls management could have better spent the $60 million elsewhere.
At least Wallace wasn’t a bust. It may come to the point, sometime over the next three years, that Chicago would wish for a do-over of its decision. But the Bulls aren’t there yet.
You probably wouldn’t be off the mark, though, if you said that as many as two-thirds of the 2006 free-agent signings were flat-out bad deals from the teams’ standpoint and almost every one of the rest of them had little or no impact. The one deal that seemed to work was Washington spending less than $1 million on DeShawn Stevenson, who walked away from three times more than that with Orlando and misjudged the market. The Wizards just signed Stevenson to a long-term extension.
Much ado about very little, in other words.
This summer, by my count, there have been 27 players who’ve switched teams so far and a raft of others left on the sidelines who’ll be settling for veteran’s minimum contracts or not much more – or be scrounging around looking for European offers.
The headline signing of the summer – the one signing of Ben Wallace-type magnitude – was the sign-and-trade deal Seattle and Orlando executed that moves Rashard Lewis into the Eastern Conference.
I’ve talked to a number of basketball people who concede that Orlando becomes a more problematic team to defend with Lewis. But they always note two caveats: One, the Magic might not win many more games or be any more formidable in the playoffs by adding Lewis while subtracting Grant Hill and Darko Milicic; and, two, the exorbitant contract Lewis received – six years, $117 million – holds great potential to haunt Orlando in a few years. Unless Orlando becomes such an attractive option that two or three veterans sign below-market deals, the Magic just won’t have much economic flexibility with so much money committed to Lewis and Dwight Howard.
Role players dominate the remainder of the signings. Besides Lewis, only four other players, by my count, signed contracts for the mid-level exception (deals starting at the league average salary of roughly $5.3 million) or more. Darko Milicic got more from Memphis and Jason Kapono (Toronto), Joe Smith (Chicago) and Morris Peterson (New Orleans) landed MLEs. Some even look like sensible deals today, but history tells us most will end up being disappointments.
The one that probably will have the biggest impact on the NBA season is Hill’s decision to sign with Phoenix for the veteran’s minimum. If Hill stays healthy, he’ll be an asset to the Suns. Steve Nash will make the most of Hill’s intelligence and unselfishness. But “if Hill stays healthy” is a qualifier that’s derailed more than a few NBA seasons.
What other signings make your pulse race? Chucky Atkins to Denver? Steve Blake to Portland? Derek Fisher to the Lakers?
The best use of free agency, the evidence suggests, is accomplished by fairly complete teams that can address one specific weakness through finding a role player either with limited options elsewhere or purposely seeking a niche role for the opportunity to chase a championship.
We don’t have to look far to find a relevant example: The Pistons’ signing of Jarvis Hayes last week. Four years after he was the No. 10 pick in the draft – and four seasons of being a significant piece of Washington’s rotation when he wasn’t sidelined for essentially one full season, spread over two, by a fractured kneecap – the Pistons landed him with a no-risk, one-year deal that addressed a specific area of need.
Joe Dumars and his staff felt comfortable going into the season with a combination of players – veteran Ronald Dupree, rookies Arron Afflalo and Sammy Mejia, maybe even spot minutes for Amir Johnson and Rip Hamilton – backing up Tayshaun Prince at small forward. They believed they’d get as much out of that mix as they got last season from Carlos Delfino. But they see Hayes as a clear upgrade.
Another move that won’t cause many ripples but fits our model is San Antonio’s snagging of Ime Udoka, who came from nowhere to wind up Portland’s starting small forward last year, a limited offensive player (though a good 3-point shooter) who is a willing and able defender.
But that’s about it. And next summer might be even more bleak. Though there are a number of veterans who can hit the market by exercising early-termination options in their contract – Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, Jermaine O’Neal, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest and Antawn Jamison among them – expect most to go the Billups route and wind up back with their own team.
O’Neal – if he isn’t traded by then – might be the likeliest to hit the market. Marion could, too, if Phoenix – dealing with luxury-tax issues – decides to back out of the bidding.
But who’ll be the buyers? I can foresee only a few teams having significant room under the cap to pursue such players – Philadelphia, Atlanta, Charlotte and Minnesota, most likely – though the sign-and-trade option remains possible. Given the states of those teams, it’s not very likely a marriage involving one of those All-Stars would occur.
Smart teams have come to the conclusion that free agency is the end of the process of team-building, not the start of it. Lousy teams who shave their payroll on the expectation they’ll spend big in free agency almost always end up overspending on flawed players and repeating their cycle of mediocrity. Pistons fans should rejoice, given the lack of quality on the market, that Joe Dumars chose to move slowly and cautiously this summer, landing a solid veteran like Hayes for what amounts to NBA pennies on the dollar.
LLTP (Langlois Loves The Pistons) is a new ongoing series of articles by Pistons.com own "beat reporter", Keith Langlois.
Today's installment...
Much Ado
Free agency’s influence wanes as GMs wise up to team building
by Keith Langlois
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Free agency might not be dead, but it’s on life support. Oh, it’s been wonderful in what it’s meant for player salaries over the past few decades. And it will continue to be a boon for the dozen or so each year who benefit by the timing of having a panicked suitor willing to overspend. But as a way of turning lottery teams into championship contenders, it’s pretty much run its course.
That might seem an odd proclamation to Pistons fans who’ve sweated out two summers of free-agent angst, first watching Ben Wallace not only leave town but land in Chicago, of all places, and then finally exhaling last month when Chauncey Billups signed off on a deal that should allow him to retire a Piston and cement his legacy as one of the franchise’s all-time greats.
But Big Ben was the only truly significant player among the 44 who switched uniforms via free agency last off-season. And, by most reasonable estimations, the impact of his move was relatively minor. Without him, the Pistons still locked up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and were eliminated in six games in the conference finals – the same scenario that played out with Wallace the previous season.
With Wallace, Chicago advanced one more round in the NBA postseason but lost to the Pistons in the second round. The questions that bear asking are how much Chicago – built around a young core of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng – would have improved without Wallace’s addition, and if Bulls management could have better spent the $60 million elsewhere.
At least Wallace wasn’t a bust. It may come to the point, sometime over the next three years, that Chicago would wish for a do-over of its decision. But the Bulls aren’t there yet.
You probably wouldn’t be off the mark, though, if you said that as many as two-thirds of the 2006 free-agent signings were flat-out bad deals from the teams’ standpoint and almost every one of the rest of them had little or no impact. The one deal that seemed to work was Washington spending less than $1 million on DeShawn Stevenson, who walked away from three times more than that with Orlando and misjudged the market. The Wizards just signed Stevenson to a long-term extension.
Much ado about very little, in other words.
This summer, by my count, there have been 27 players who’ve switched teams so far and a raft of others left on the sidelines who’ll be settling for veteran’s minimum contracts or not much more – or be scrounging around looking for European offers.
The headline signing of the summer – the one signing of Ben Wallace-type magnitude – was the sign-and-trade deal Seattle and Orlando executed that moves Rashard Lewis into the Eastern Conference.
I’ve talked to a number of basketball people who concede that Orlando becomes a more problematic team to defend with Lewis. But they always note two caveats: One, the Magic might not win many more games or be any more formidable in the playoffs by adding Lewis while subtracting Grant Hill and Darko Milicic; and, two, the exorbitant contract Lewis received – six years, $117 million – holds great potential to haunt Orlando in a few years. Unless Orlando becomes such an attractive option that two or three veterans sign below-market deals, the Magic just won’t have much economic flexibility with so much money committed to Lewis and Dwight Howard.
Role players dominate the remainder of the signings. Besides Lewis, only four other players, by my count, signed contracts for the mid-level exception (deals starting at the league average salary of roughly $5.3 million) or more. Darko Milicic got more from Memphis and Jason Kapono (Toronto), Joe Smith (Chicago) and Morris Peterson (New Orleans) landed MLEs. Some even look like sensible deals today, but history tells us most will end up being disappointments.
The one that probably will have the biggest impact on the NBA season is Hill’s decision to sign with Phoenix for the veteran’s minimum. If Hill stays healthy, he’ll be an asset to the Suns. Steve Nash will make the most of Hill’s intelligence and unselfishness. But “if Hill stays healthy” is a qualifier that’s derailed more than a few NBA seasons.
What other signings make your pulse race? Chucky Atkins to Denver? Steve Blake to Portland? Derek Fisher to the Lakers?
The best use of free agency, the evidence suggests, is accomplished by fairly complete teams that can address one specific weakness through finding a role player either with limited options elsewhere or purposely seeking a niche role for the opportunity to chase a championship.
We don’t have to look far to find a relevant example: The Pistons’ signing of Jarvis Hayes last week. Four years after he was the No. 10 pick in the draft – and four seasons of being a significant piece of Washington’s rotation when he wasn’t sidelined for essentially one full season, spread over two, by a fractured kneecap – the Pistons landed him with a no-risk, one-year deal that addressed a specific area of need.
Joe Dumars and his staff felt comfortable going into the season with a combination of players – veteran Ronald Dupree, rookies Arron Afflalo and Sammy Mejia, maybe even spot minutes for Amir Johnson and Rip Hamilton – backing up Tayshaun Prince at small forward. They believed they’d get as much out of that mix as they got last season from Carlos Delfino. But they see Hayes as a clear upgrade.
Another move that won’t cause many ripples but fits our model is San Antonio’s snagging of Ime Udoka, who came from nowhere to wind up Portland’s starting small forward last year, a limited offensive player (though a good 3-point shooter) who is a willing and able defender.
But that’s about it. And next summer might be even more bleak. Though there are a number of veterans who can hit the market by exercising early-termination options in their contract – Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, Jermaine O’Neal, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest and Antawn Jamison among them – expect most to go the Billups route and wind up back with their own team.
O’Neal – if he isn’t traded by then – might be the likeliest to hit the market. Marion could, too, if Phoenix – dealing with luxury-tax issues – decides to back out of the bidding.
But who’ll be the buyers? I can foresee only a few teams having significant room under the cap to pursue such players – Philadelphia, Atlanta, Charlotte and Minnesota, most likely – though the sign-and-trade option remains possible. Given the states of those teams, it’s not very likely a marriage involving one of those All-Stars would occur.
Smart teams have come to the conclusion that free agency is the end of the process of team-building, not the start of it. Lousy teams who shave their payroll on the expectation they’ll spend big in free agency almost always end up overspending on flawed players and repeating their cycle of mediocrity. Pistons fans should rejoice, given the lack of quality on the market, that Joe Dumars chose to move slowly and cautiously this summer, landing a solid veteran like Hayes for what amounts to NBA pennies on the dollar.